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12z Model Thread - 12/17/10


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You can now see why having a La Nina season can be so hard to get a major winter storm.. But not only that, you can see why the models struggle with this fast flow. Its another reminder, be very careful with long range solutions. The killer in all this for our major winter storm threat is that big fat pig sitting off of the Pacifc northwest.. Just can't get enough ridging along the West Coast that would alllow major digging here in the east.. Oh how do I miss last year's setup.

By the way, great radio show last night. Hopefully, we can have it once a week, if possible..

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Yeah, I'm focused on the clipper threat.. 96 to 108 hours. That seems to be more reliable than these coastal fantasies.

Less moving parts. you don't need phasing though the track does depend on the location of the vortex to east. While the monday threat is nearly over, I'd wait until the GFS and euro dismiss again before completely writing it off.

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Great points Wes.. Yeh, we could be saying, yeh its over and then wham.. Here we go again..

Less moving parts. you don't need phasing though the track does depend on the location of the vortex to east. While the monday threat is nearly over, I'd wait until the GFS and euro dismiss again before completely writing it off.

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You can now see why having a La Nina season can be so hard to get a major winter storm.. But not only that, you can see why the models struggle with this fast flow. Its another reminder, be very careful with long range solutions. The killer in all this for our major winter storm threat is that big fat pig sitting off of the Pacifc northwest.. Just can't get enough ridging along the West Coast that would alllow major digging here in the east.. Oh how do I miss last year's setup.

By the way, great radio show last night. Hopefully, we can have it once a week, if possible..

How do we have a fast flow when we have extreme blocking. I thought LA NINA was known for fast flows because usually, there is very little blocking

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I'm saying, look at how many disturbances we have rolling across the Western US. Its a quick flow. Up in Canada you have the blocking, but over the lower 48 you have a fast flow..

How do we have a fast flow when we have extreme blocking. I thought LA NINA was known for fast flows because usually, there is very little blocking

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Now at 48hrs the PV is killing us...looks like good energy diving down through the rockies with onging troughing in the east and ridging in between which is being supressed by the PV. Quite the conviluted setup. I'm beginning to think the euros idea of a bermuda storm from 12/15 is the most accurate :axe:

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Guest someguy

How do we have a fast flow when we have extreme blocking. I thought LA NINA was known for fast flows because usually, there is very little blocking

The text in BOLD is something I said 2 or 3 times in winter forecast.

it si the MOST over looked aspect of La Nina winters

This is why the pattern looked so close to being huge event but never quite came in just right

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clipper looses its punch at hr 90 as the coastal retrogrades just enough and knocks down some of the ridging :thumbsdown: this whole week has been nothing but dissapointment. We went from a possible historic week to virtually nothing in 24hrs. I've been around long enough to know that these things happen but it doesn't make them less painfull

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nice clipper action at 90 hrs for MA

look at that 300mb jet aimed at us

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_300_090l.gif

It dies at hour 96 or so. Crumbles right before it gets to us....much like this winter. At least we had last year to carry us through.

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yesterday afternoon i posted in the MW forum that the euro will probably go back to an OTS solution at 00z and break a lot of i-95ers hearts. I was right, not because i know what i'm talking about in meteorological terms, but based strictly on what I've seen the euro pull over and over again. The model pattern is this: An 8 or 9 day tease shows up and gets everyone drawn in initially. Then it reverts to an OTS/suppressed look for several runs in the long to midrange while other models begin to flip around with a big storm, (acting to continually keep everyones interest and wonder if the euro is hicupping) Then suddenly in the 84-120 timeframe the euro dramatically finds the storm again and everyone goes into a frenzy. It holds the solution for 2 or 3 runs then BAM...pulls the rug out and reverts right back to the OTS solution it was originally showing.

If the euro shows a day 8 or 9 storm, then loses it for a few days and suddenly brings it back inside of 4 days....beware. Most of the time, whatever euro solution shows up the longest time within an 8 day period, wins. In this case overwhelmingly most of the runs were OTS over the last 8 days.

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Still looks like a 1-2" storm on the GFS. Still have time for this to change for the better.. or worst..

gfs_p48_108m.gif

When the surface reflectiOns become more clear, the clipper should look better. I really like how itlooks atm, and it has come north from yesterday. I doubt it will die like that, good chance for a nice event IMHO. Keep watching.

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Three things to hang our hats on at this point....one at least the Low looks better organized than it did last night with less of a strung out apperance. Two...the models have been so inconsistent to this point nothing would suprise me. Three I actually think the 12z GFS looked slightly better. I'm very interested to see what the ensembles show. In all reality though, we shouldn't kid ourselves, the casket is being lowered and the 12z EC will probably be the dirt.

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