am19psu Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 The 12z NAM was well offshore, only giving an inch or so to the Cape. The GFS will start soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 12z RGEM is well offshore as well. Done deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 12z RGEM is well offshore as well. Done deal. Most likely but we still have the clipper threat. In a strong nina, that's more what you normally get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Meanwhile the West Coast is doing very well as the Pacific cyclone unravels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 You can now see why having a La Nina season can be so hard to get a major winter storm.. But not only that, you can see why the models struggle with this fast flow. Its another reminder, be very careful with long range solutions. The killer in all this for our major winter storm threat is that big fat pig sitting off of the Pacifc northwest.. Just can't get enough ridging along the West Coast that would alllow major digging here in the east.. Oh how do I miss last year's setup. By the way, great radio show last night. Hopefully, we can have it once a week, if possible.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Most likely but we still have the clipper threat. In a strong nina, that's more what you normally get. Yeah, I'm focused on the clipper threat.. 96 to 108 hours. That seems to be more reliable than these coastal fantasies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Yeah, I'm focused on the clipper threat.. 96 to 108 hours. That seems to be more reliable than these coastal fantasies. Less moving parts. you don't need phasing though the track does depend on the location of the vortex to east. While the monday threat is nearly over, I'd wait until the GFS and euro dismiss again before completely writing it off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Great points Wes.. Yeh, we could be saying, yeh its over and then wham.. Here we go again.. Less moving parts. you don't need phasing though the track does depend on the location of the vortex to east. While the monday threat is nearly over, I'd wait until the GFS and euro dismiss again before completely writing it off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 You can now see why having a La Nina season can be so hard to get a major winter storm.. But not only that, you can see why the models struggle with this fast flow. Its another reminder, be very careful with long range solutions. The killer in all this for our major winter storm threat is that big fat pig sitting off of the Pacifc northwest.. Just can't get enough ridging along the West Coast that would alllow major digging here in the east.. Oh how do I miss last year's setup. By the way, great radio show last night. Hopefully, we can have it once a week, if possible.. How do we have a fast flow when we have extreme blocking. I thought LA NINA was known for fast flows because usually, there is very little blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 looks as if the 12Z GFS is coming in with a better organized system. Seems to form further west in the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 How do we have a fast flow when we have extreme blocking. I thought LA NINA was known for fast flows because usually, there is very little blocking The blocking is way north, it's not blocking the flow into the conus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I'm saying, look at how many disturbances we have rolling across the Western US. Its a quick flow. Up in Canada you have the blocking, but over the lower 48 you have a fast flow.. How do we have a fast flow when we have extreme blocking. I thought LA NINA was known for fast flows because usually, there is very little blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Man, is the 500mb maps ugly or what. I mean, its like a flood of vorts roling across the US. The damn just broke... Wow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Actually, Virginia Beach looks to get some decent snow this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Now at 48hrs the PV is killing us...looks like good energy diving down through the rockies with onging troughing in the east and ridging in between which is being supressed by the PV. Quite the conviluted setup. I'm beginning to think the euros idea of a bermuda storm from 12/15 is the most accurate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 How do we have a fast flow when we have extreme blocking. I thought LA NINA was known for fast flows because usually, there is very little blocking The text in BOLD is something I said 2 or 3 times in winter forecast. it si the MOST over looked aspect of La Nina winters This is why the pattern looked so close to being huge event but never quite came in just right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Well, the clipper at 72 is looking healthy...time to move on to that as our tracking hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Yes. the clipper looks very nice at 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 clipper looses its punch at hr 90 as the coastal retrogrades just enough and knocks down some of the ridging this whole week has been nothing but dissapointment. We went from a possible historic week to virtually nothing in 24hrs. I've been around long enough to know that these things happen but it doesn't make them less painfull Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 nice clipper action at 90 hrs for MA look at that 300mb jet aimed at us http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_300_090l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 nice clipper action at 90 hrs for MA look at that 300mb jet aimed at us http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_300_090l.gif It dies at hour 96 or so. Crumbles right before it gets to us....much like this winter. At least we had last year to carry us through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 It dies at hour 96 or so. Crumbles right before it gets to us....much like this winter. At least we had last year to carry us through. Still looks like a 1-2" storm on the GFS. Still have time for this to change for the better.. or worst.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 So looking out west at 114hr......Christmas potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 yesterday afternoon i posted in the MW forum that the euro will probably go back to an OTS solution at 00z and break a lot of i-95ers hearts. I was right, not because i know what i'm talking about in meteorological terms, but based strictly on what I've seen the euro pull over and over again. The model pattern is this: An 8 or 9 day tease shows up and gets everyone drawn in initially. Then it reverts to an OTS/suppressed look for several runs in the long to midrange while other models begin to flip around with a big storm, (acting to continually keep everyones interest and wonder if the euro is hicupping) Then suddenly in the 84-120 timeframe the euro dramatically finds the storm again and everyone goes into a frenzy. It holds the solution for 2 or 3 runs then BAM...pulls the rug out and reverts right back to the OTS solution it was originally showing. If the euro shows a day 8 or 9 storm, then loses it for a few days and suddenly brings it back inside of 4 days....beware. Most of the time, whatever euro solution shows up the longest time within an 8 day period, wins. In this case overwhelmingly most of the runs were OTS over the last 8 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Still looks like a 1-2" storm on the GFS. Still have time for this to change for the better.. or worst.. I'm gonna call my met broker and lock it in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Still looks like a 1-2" storm on the GFS. Still have time for this to change for the better.. or worst.. When the surface reflectiOns become more clear, the clipper should look better. I really like how itlooks atm, and it has come north from yesterday. I doubt it will die like that, good chance for a nice event IMHO. Keep watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Looking at the GFS, you would think all that moisture thats hitting the West Coast would eventually make to our way.. You would think... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Three things to hang our hats on at this point....one at least the Low looks better organized than it did last night with less of a strung out apperance. Two...the models have been so inconsistent to this point nothing would suprise me. Three I actually think the 12z GFS looked slightly better. I'm very interested to see what the ensembles show. In all reality though, we shouldn't kid ourselves, the casket is being lowered and the 12z EC will probably be the dirt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Anybody for a lake cutter on Christmas day? http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp06168.gif Edit: Well. maybe not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 So is this weekend storm idea pretty much dead for everybody right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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