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Remnants of T.S. Andrea to Impact the NE - Flood Threat!


moneypitmike

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Can someone explain why the KBOX rad storm totals are so hugely under what has actually occurred?  

 

It has .1 to .3" total for FIT, yet the obs show .99" since this began ... probably already clicked over an inch at that, too.   The header on the product says it is between 2:49pm yesterday and just a few minutes ago, too. 

Tip, do you have a better obs map?

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Can someone explain why the KBOX rad storm totals are so hugely under what has actually occurred?  

 

It has .1 to .3" total for FIT, yet the obs show .99" since this began ... probably already clicked over an inch at that, too.   The header on the product says it is between 2:49pm yesterday and just a few minutes ago, too. 

Tropical rains have smaller droplets, which causes reflectivity (dbz) to be lower, and that's probably what the algorithm is using to determine accumulated rainfall. 

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Can someone explain why the KBOX rad storm totals are so hugely under what has actually occurred?  

 

It has .1 to .3" total for FIT, yet the obs show .99" since this began ... probably already clicked over an inch at that, too.   The header on the product says it is between 2:49pm yesterday and just a few minutes ago, too.

Small droplet rains maybe?

Not sure what the droplet size distribution is today though...I don't have my disdrometer out. ;)

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Tip, do you have a better obs map?

 

I don't, but if you go to KBOX' website and their Observation link, most sites are averaging 1" to 1.5" from NE to SW across the region, yet their rad storm totals do not reflect this for many locations -- not by a long shot.  

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Small droplet rains maybe?

Not sure what the droplet size distribution is today though...I don't have my disdrometer out. ;)

 

Yeah, it's an honest question - not meaning to be snarky.  I'm sure there's a reasonable explanation, and it may in fact be how the beam is adjusted for hydro meteors.   True.  Either way, the current product is flat wrong N of the Pike. 

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So...Is this still setting up as a 2-4/3-5 inch storm region wide?  

 

4 to spot 5.5" totals...  Of course there are always negative outliers, but in general.  We'll be 1.25 to 1.5" when the heavy bands come through, and history has them dumping 2-3" inches.   

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
535 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
FAIRFIELD COUNTY IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...
MIDDLESEX COUNTY IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...
NEW HAVEN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...
NEW LONDON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...

* UNTIL 830 PM EDT...

* AT 526 PM EDT...A LARGE AREA OF RAINFALL OVER LONG ISLAND WAS
LIFTING NORTH AROUND 35 MPH. THIS RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AROUND 6 PM WITH RAINFALL RATES GENERALLY
BETWEEN 1 1/2 AND 2 1/2 INCHES PER HOUR. DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED
A FEW DISCRETE AREAS OF 4 INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES
. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OF ROADS...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING
AN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.  :lmao:

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Next 3-6 hours will be interesting to see how much liquid the atmosphere can squeeze out. Mother Nature is doing a fantastic job making it rain even with the feedback from the antecedent drought and desert heat that frequents New England.

 

Oh stop -

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