OceanStWx Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 I'd watch for 3-5" amounts...but someone locally will see more than that wherever the best LL convergence sets up in combo with some ML forcing...as usual hard to pinpoint those spots. But later in this event, NE MA/ and SE NH will probably be under the gun if our SNE heavy rainfall climo rules hold up with the BL flow direction progged. Earlier on here this afternoon and evening, the Berkshires to NW CT and perhaps even the central hills will be in for it while our ML flow is still more southerly. That LLVL convergence is really effective for wringing out these tropical air mass too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 Quite the change from yesterday too. Last three runs have really beefed up the probability of 2" in 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 well this will put a dent in the precip deficit (not drought) we have going on this year. I believe most of us (including KCON) are at least a couple inches below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 Nice front end thump... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 fall line enhancement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 .48 so far. Can we tickle another 2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 Will, how much rainfall are we looking at? I have to update my damn sig....time to rejoin the crew. What a disaster of rut I was in. Nice dude.. Chuck a few at everyone. We missed you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 I need to see your bald head...perhaps even run the tip of me weenie across it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 It's interesting that the last two days the NMB members of the SREF have been consistently lower than the rest. I wish I had a better grasp at what individual model physics would cause that difference. It affects the mean QPF by 0.25 to 0.50". It's also funny to see the op NAM go from the lowest to highest QPF in the plumes in just 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 For some reason,I can not respond directly to a post.....but Ryan, recently underwent a very sobering epiphany and realized that I've waisted the last 5 years of my life...allowing myself to go to $hit, but at some point, you have to start living again. Weeenie has been extraordinarly limp for about a year lol Perfect song for you..Great tune..Crank it up..Dance around a bit...let the weenie flop up and down back and forth, too and fro..shake it loose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 Kev, if you're good...I'll break the Sus**** voiceout of moth balls....(Left eye closes)"FOLLLOOWWW MEEEEEE" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 Kev, if you're good...I'll break the Sus**** voiceout of moth balls....(Left eye closes)"FOLLLOOWWW MEEEEEE" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 The thing about this storm, and BOX mentions this....is that it still has great mid levels. So, deformation rains of a PWAT airmass >2" is certainly going to lead to very high rain totals. That axis probably will be out west, but then we have the low level convergence stuff further east near the low track as Will alluded too. Could be mini CF enhancement too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 LLJ and convergence feeding this band near 00z. Deformation, low level convergence adding to a big burst in the evening into the overnight hours. In between their will be mesoscale processes too that lead to various jackpots of +RA. The overall area that I outlined earlier will probably get hit hard..but you can throw in the Berks too with terrain help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 Yeah you can see how the ML flow is basically southerly early tonight...it tries to start turning more SE later on, but we'll have to see if that happens...storm would have to close off in the mid-level pretty quickly...which the globals show a bit more than the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 Yeah you can see how the ML flow is basically southerly early tonight...it tries to start turning more SE later on, but we'll have to see if that happens...storm would have to close off in the mid-level pretty quickly...which the globals show a bit more than the NAM. Yeah the GFS nails your area later on tonight from that feature. KInd of a cool rain event...beats talking about inflated dews. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 Could get quite windy at the Cape later on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 It all looks pretty favorable, as the low/mid level jet will force convergence beneath the divergence created by the cyclonically curved upper levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 It all looks pretty favorable, as the low/mid level jet will force convergence beneath the divergence created by the cyclonically curved upper levels. Check out the line of convection and blob of wicked VVs near the mid levels later tonight. I wonder if that line of convection will have some rotators. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 It all looks pretty favorable, as the low/mid level jet will force convergence beneath the divergence created by the cyclonically curved upper levels. Indeed. Now the question is where does the convection start firing over SNE and really go to town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 This is Superstorm 20 years later, to bad the calendar is not cooperating. Jackpot ~5-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 Some lollis in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 NW NJ is always a good location in these events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 SNE up to E.NNE is about to get smoked. That stuff moving through the Delmarva should pivot later over SNE. Some impressive hourly rains in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 SNE up to E.NNE is about to get smoked. That stuff moving through the Delmarva should pivot later over SNE. Some impressive hourly rains in that. Yeah looking very impressive. That's going to slam into LL convergence later on over SNE and really wring out some totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 A lot of rain offshore not even seen by radar too. Nice cold cloud tops off the Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 I dont think i have ever seen a pivot in e mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 I dont think i have ever seen a pivot in e mass It's happened many times, man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 LOL, here we go with the pivot stuff not happening here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 I guess pickles does not remember the mother of all mid level bands, Dec. 9, 2005. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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