Ginx snewx Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 Hunkering down for 2- 2.5 or soOver Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 Over Sleepy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 Actually the winds at the buoys were 50 knots plus, so while at sea it verified. Andrea thread says it all, this thing got ripped apart this afternoon, gfs did well showing the shear.....I actually think it will be a more potent storm starting tomorrow midday on over and off the mid atlantic with some good baroclinic forcing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 Andrea thread says it all, this thing got ripped apart this afternoon, gfs did well showing the shear.....I actually think it will be a more potent storm starting tomorrow midday on over and off the mid atlantic with some good baroclinic forcing.Totally agree as an extratropical winter type storm with interaction of cold air it's going to be a deluge. CC might get hammered with a period of banded winds too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 Hunkering down for 2- 2.5 or so I will take the over 2.5" and save this post reverend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collinsville Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 The second highest crest in the Farmingtons history occurred from Irene, which river is near you?http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/river.php?wfo=box&wfoid=18682&riverid=203852&pt%5B%5D=all&allpoints=141186%2C144360%2C143707&data%5B%5D=crests Farmington comes right through Collinsville. You can't really use the Farmington as a flooding gauge anymore, the dams built after 1955 took care of that. You have to go by small streams and brooks. Oct 2005 was by far the worst I've ever seen in that regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 Heavy heavy rains coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 3-4" here me thinks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 Irene was a top five flood event on most rivers and streams from the CT River west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 Was just looking at the forecast for Woodstock, CT.... tomorrow night is the biggie, lol. Tonight Rain. Low around 55. Southeast wind 7 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Friday Rain. Patchy fog. High near 61. Northeast wind 7 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Friday Night Rain. The rain could be heavy at times. Patchy fog. Low around 56. Northeast wind around 9 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between 2 and 3 inches possible. Saturday A chance of showers. Cloudy, with a high near 72. North wind 8 to 10 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Saturday Night A chance of showers, mainly before 3am. Patchy fog before 9pm. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 55. Light and variable wind becoming north around 5 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 7, 2013 Author Share Posted June 7, 2013 Irene was a top five flood event on most rivers and streams from the CT River west. Here's the Deerfield in Shelburne Falls during Irene. Tomorrow's got nothin' on this. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-YuQWLGA870 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 You're essentially getting at like a 4-7" QPF event. Seems hard to get in a winter/cold airmass...I guess it would have to be some ridiculous overrunning solution leading up to a whopper of a coastal storm. We've all seen what like 3"+ QPF can do (like last Feb in CT, or April Fools)...but I'm not sure how you take QPF one notch higher. In fact, didn't April Fools 97 have some 5" QPF amounts? Closest I can think of to 60"+ amounts is the Feb 2010 ordeal in the Catskills of NY where towns picked up 4-7 feet of snow in 5 days (two storms). The conversation started as a what if: Suppose in late November, a -2 SD cold load into NW NE took place, at the same time what is initially unrelated, an eastern Gulf late seasom TC lift N up the Coast. It's not a huge leap to see that happen in mind's eye. It just hasn't (yet) in reality. Obviously the standard deviation would argue that is exceedingly rare ... in fact, it hasn't happened. Sandy came damn close actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kmcfarland99 Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 Could someone explain why there is (or should I say, what causes there to be) a 1-2" patch along the Maine coast in NE Coastal York county (bordering Coastal Cumberland county) sandwiched between 2-3" patches along SE Coastal York County and Coastal Cumberland county? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 I dunno...I feel someone is going to get dumped on good when all said and done. Maybe I am wrong, but the Berks to I-95 should be on the look out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 I dunno...I feel someone is going to get dumped on good when all said and done. Maybe I am wrong, but the Berks to I-95 should be on the look out. Are u saying 5 plus, i think everyone agrees were gonna get "dump'd on" in sne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 6-12? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 Are u saying 5 plus, i think everyone agrees were gonna get "dump'd on" in sne Yeah someome will probably get 5"+. It might not be widespread...but something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 The GFS really has incredible moisture flux at 925 and 850. That makes me nervous for uber heavy rain in a short period later tomorrow and tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 The conversation started as a what if: Suppose in late November, a -2 SD cold load into NW NE took place, at the same time what is initially unrelated, an eastern Gulf late seasom TC lift N up the Coast. It's not a huge leap to see that happen in mind's eye. It just hasn't (yet) in reality. Obviously the standard deviation would argue that is exceedingly rare ... in fact, it hasn't happened. Sandy came damn close actually. Hurricane Wilma, or by this latitude a tropical depression, in Oct 2005 came close in the Green Mountains. That storm coupled with cold air to bring the Greens several feet of snow. I remember skiing natural snow terrain at Killington after Wilma and Killington had a ton of trails open. That may have been close, but I agree what you AE saying hasn't happened at least in populated areas or closer to the coastal plain at least. It would be quite the sight to watch areas snow at 1/2" QPF falling in the bucket each hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 The GFS really has incredible moisture flux at 925 and 850. That makes me nervous for uber heavy rain in a short period later tomorrow and tomorrow evening. Scott, can we add ur pic to the sultan signal w ginxy. In all seriousness, i have a question my gf is concernd about basement flooding and she keeps talkin about some mothers day flooding (after like a week or more of hvy rains) from like 7-8 yrs ago or so. Said there was 10 inches of water downstairs. Are u familiar w any big rainy week where big flooding occurs in that time frame or maybe someone else knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 Basemant flooding depends on so many things....If that was the only time she had flooding...I'd say she is good to go. This isn't meant for people to sand bag...it's just that some areas may get creamed in a short period with heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 Mothers day 2006 , looks like we had about 9 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 Basemant flooding depends on so many things....If that was the only time she had flooding...I'd say she is good to go. This isn't meant for people to sand bag...it's just that some areas may get creamed in a short period with heavy rain. she has had flooding in march 2010, and a time or two during like 3 inch rains in like 2 hrs of training storms, thou the 3 inch rains were just a little water, the prior two i think the water came up from the ground/water table not sure. Anyway hoping for 10 plus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 GEFS love >2-3" for CT into the 95 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 Hopefully this is progressive, but the convergence band/mid level fronto stuff not moving much in a 6-8hr period is what concerns me. Maybe climo weighs too much into my fears, but something to think about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 Scott ur really honkin tonite about this, do you think there is a break for abit midday tmrw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 Caution flags at full staff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 Scott ur really honkin tonite about this, do you think there is a break for abit midday tmrw I'm not honking something more than it is...it just could be quite a 12 hr rainstorm at its peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 Pvd solid rains (yellow returns on radar) over to sturbridge then west along pike. Edit not sure what crackpot radar i was lookin at . Looks like good rains danbury - torrington- to berks East to orange ne to keene-mht Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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