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Remnants of T.S. Andrea to Impact the NE - Flood Threat!


moneypitmike

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Looks like right over SE MA, but it's too light on QPF IMHO.

 

 

Even the GFS has 2-3" for a large portion of SNE. For that model, thats pretty good. There will definitely be someone who gets a lot more than that though.

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Even the GFS has 2-3" for a large portion of SNE. For that model, thats pretty good. There will definitely be someone who gets a lot more than that though.

 

Yeah it just looks a little light with the low itself, but perhaps it's on to something. We'll see what the euro says.

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If you look on water vapor, you can see that secondary wave (over Texas/Arkansas) that doesn't get drawn into Andrea by the GFS. The end result is another shot at some rain Saturday night.

 

It will be interesting to see how the two systems interact. I could see more moisture getting fed into the remnants of Andrea instead of two separate waves, but we'll see.

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To each their own. Hope you and Scooter and Ginx and Forky and whomever else wants it gets their record rains

But yet you get all worked up over a 3-week dry period as a "damaging drought."

However you continue to mix up what people want with what they forecast. I say I don't want anymore rain and you interpret that as I don't think any rain will fall. Coastal and Ginx talk about heavy rains but you assume it means they are wishing for a washout.

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But yet you get all worked up over a 3-week dry period as a "damaging drought."

However you continue to mix up what people want with what they forecast. I say I don't want anymore rain and you interpret that as I don't think any rain will fall. Coastal and Ginx talk about heavy rains but you assume it means they are wishing for a washout.

What??
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But yet you get all worked up over a 3-week dry period as a "damaging drought."

However you continue to mix up what people want with what they forecast. I say I don't want anymore rain and you interpret that as I don't think any rain will fall. Coastal and Ginx talk about heavy rains but you assume it means they are wishing for a washout.

 

 

Well to be fair, Kevin is used to wishcasting, so assumes that the rest of us do it too.

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Barring something physically bizarro I don't see much of a wind concern with Andrea.   

 

Strange things do happen though, sometimes.   

 
I remember back in the late 1980s there was a tropical depression that developed over the Yuk. Peninsula ...like on land.  It was later espoused that unusually wet May and June made for a highly anomalous soil moisture pre-conditioning, such that it was enough to feed zygote convection. The system then drifted over the lower Gulf and went on to becoming a TC (don't recall the name or the dates...).   
 
Katrina actually maintained and/or even perhaps gathered some intensity as it skirted from the SW Bahamas across the southern peninsula of Florida.  It may be an homage to just how awesome the deep layer circulation amid the Gulf and adjacent areas were conducive to development.   Katrina's run in (temporary) with land might have been a mere single negative factor in an otherwise petri-dish of explosive potential.  Also, S. Fl. is very flat, and has Everglades of warm pooled water, and so forth.  So the "negative" aspect is open to some interpretation, perhaps.  
 
Of course ... all that with Andrea is predicated on the assumption that the track guidance is correct!   "IF" the track guidance is right, I believe the wind field can't really expand NW.  When TCs begin their polarward death journeys, the wind shifts right (east) and the rain left (west) of the track, and Andrea is already S of the region.    If Andrea comes farther NW then guidance then some vestigial eastern flanking wind/jet may get transported to the Coastal Plain N of the Del Marva.    But it would have to come actually west of the shores... Not sure I see that happening even with some bump NW with the track.  Time will tell... 
 
It's also not helping the Andrea is only a 50kt/ 997mb cyclone and has to then traverse some 250 miles of land before skimming along the SC/NC coasts...  She'll be weakening in that time ... one would think.   
 
By the way, in the words of the great Obi Wan Kenobi, "..As if millions of voices suddenly cried out in terror and were suddenly silenced" - RIP Penguin fans.
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