Remnants of T.S. Andrea to Impact the NE - Flood Threat!

[CT Rain]

  On 6/6/2013 at 5:04 PM, Wx Hype said:

i haven't seen any met post what the highest rainfall totals could be

 

Because when someone posts 8" and you get 2" in your backyard no one wants to listen to 30 posts about how the storms was a bust and underperformer. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Here's one take:

Tropical Storm Andrea probably hit its peak this morning and now will remain a storm moving up the coast. Not sure how NHC will handle the naming of the storm once it moves across Florida but in any case, extreme rain will hit northern Florida into southeastern Georgia through tonight. Some places will pick up 5-10 inches or rain with flooding likely.

Winds from Florida up the coast to New England will be gusty as Andrea moves by. Wind gusts along the coast will be 30-45 mph in gusts, with places like Nantucket and Cape Cod having a gust up to 60 mph.

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 6/6/2013 at 5:07 PM, CT Rain said:

Because when someone posts 8" and you get 2" in your backyard no one wants to listen to 30 posts about how the storms was a bust and underperformer.

But wait! You just said there's been 7 pages of posts on max amounts

[CoastalWx]

  On 6/6/2013 at 4:31 PM, forkyfork said:

the gfs shows some fujiwara action with that system in the south and thus the western track... it might not be wrong

 

It's an interesting s/w interaction with that and the one over the GL. 

[ORH_wxman]

  On 6/6/2013 at 5:08 PM, Wx Hype said:

But wait! You just said there's been 7 pages of posts on max amounts

 

 

We've been talking about how models showing 3" of rainfall won't accurately capture max amounts. We also mentioned that the max rainfall amounts in Irene are unlikely in this one (probably extremely unlikely).

 

But is there really a difference if someone jackpots 6.3" vs 8"? Ryan's right, talking specific max amounts is just a great way for ignorant weenies to throw their arms up in the air and scream bust when they end up with 2 inches of rain in their backyard.

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 6/6/2013 at 5:13 PM, ORH_wxman said:

We've been talking about how models showing 3" of rainfall won't accurately capture max amounts. We also mentioned that the max rainfall amounts in Irene are unlikely in this one (probably extremely unlikely).

But is there really a difference if someone jackpots 6.3" vs 8"? Ryan's right, talking specific max amounts is just a great way for ignorant weenies to throw their arms up in the air and scream bust when they end up with 2 inches of rain in their backyard.

Then why forecast specific snowfall amounts based on that logic?

[powderfreak]

  On 6/6/2013 at 4:32 PM, cpick79 said:

Pfreak is there a reason you always take kevs responses seriously

lol it is so hard not to respond to most of it...even knowing he is fishing for comments.

Luckily there's usually at least one person who counters each statement he makes, so we can spread around the effort to tone down the hype or bold statements through various posters (be it CT Rain, coastalwx, Ginx, ORH, etc lol)

Anyway....looks like its going to rain.

[Bostonseminole]

  On 6/6/2013 at 5:14 PM, Wx Hype said:

We've been talking about how models showing 3" of rainfall won't accurately capture max amounts. We also mentioned that the max rainfall amounts in Irene are unlikely in this one (probably extremely unlikely).

But is there really a difference if someone jackpots 6.3" vs 8"? Ryan's right, talking specific max amounts is just a great way for ignorant weenies to throw their arms up in the air and scream bust when they end up with 2 inches of rain in their backyard.Then why forecast specific snowfall amounts based on that logic?

sorry but lolz.

[Quincy]

  On 6/6/2013 at 5:14 PM, Wx Hype said:

Then why forecast specific snowfall amounts based on that logic?

True. Most meteorologists would rather say 6.3" than 4 to 8" when it comes to snowfall amounts. 

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 6/6/2013 at 5:27 PM, Quincy said:

True. Most meteorologists would rather say 6.3" than 4 to 8" when it comes to snowfall amounts.

And Will has stated many times that forecasting snowfall amounts is one of the hardest things to do.

[CoastalWx]

  On 6/6/2013 at 5:14 PM, Wx Hype said:

Then why forecast specific snowfall amounts based on that logic?

 

[CoastalWx]

Forecasting rain amounts to the nearest 0.1" is different vs snow considering a normal 10:1 ratio means 0.1" melted precip = 1" of snow.

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 6/6/2013 at 5:30 PM, CoastalWx said:

Forecasting rain amounts to the nearest 0.1" is different vs snow considering a normal 10:1 ratio means 0.1" melted precip = 1" of snow.

How about YOUR specific thoughts on a range of max rain amounts?

[TalcottWx]

Uhh, it seems pretty clear precip amounts have a pretty large range still over the entire area.

Why precip predictions are being discussed? I don't know what the point would be

[forkyfork]

[TalcottWx]

I think I'll forecast 1-10" from nyc to maine

[Tropopause_Fold]

  On 6/6/2013 at 5:32 PM, Wx Hype said:

How about YOUR specific thoughts on a range of max rain amounts?

there's something in the water in Tolland and Fairfield. 

[Damage In Tolland]

ugh

[forkyfork]

you're going to get exactly 3.92"

[CoastalWx]

  On 6/6/2013 at 5:43 PM, Tropopause_Fold said:

there's something in the water in Tolland and Fairfield.

Phosphates?

[forkyfork]

the canadian has that slight fujiwara effect too

[Tropopause_Fold]

  On 6/6/2013 at 5:47 PM, CoastalWx said:

Phosphates?

Hg 

[N. OF PIKE]

Euro?

[Cold Miser]

  On 6/6/2013 at 5:45 PM, forkyfork said:

you're going to get exactly 3.92"

Could be close to 40" of snow on Mt Tolland.

 

Good for them.

[forkyfork]

  On 6/6/2013 at 5:53 PM, cpick79 said:

Euro?

similar to 00z. deluge

[Ginx snewx]

  On 6/6/2013 at 5:32 PM, Wx Hype said:

How about YOUR specific thoughts on a range of max rain amounts?

CT Blizz will be back

[CoastalWx]

  On 6/6/2013 at 5:53 PM, cpick79 said:

Euro?

 

Over about MVY or so. 2-3" from about BOS to MA/CT border on south. 3"+ over LI.

[powderfreak]

LOL pot is always getting stirred.

[ORH_wxman]

  On 6/6/2013 at 5:14 PM, Wx Hype said:

Then why forecast specific snowfall amounts based on that logic?

 

 

We generally issue a range for snowfall that covers it...and many of us on here have stated our distaste for people frequently taking the high end of a snowfall range as being what they should expect.

[CoastalWx]

Look for the 8C 850 isotherm...that is where your band of heavy rain will be.