CoastalWx Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 It definitely will get close by June 15. I think most areas are + too, but it will get close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Looks just like a winter system, CT jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 On 6/5/2013 at 11:09 AM, Mr Torchey said: I don't need luck just knowledge and understanding climo, heck even yesterday was a +1 here with a high of 77..........warm nights coming up will ensure slightly positive departures during this "cool" period thanks to clouds and dews. Its a lock for + departures at all 4 in sne, not even close. A lock after 4 days...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 On 6/5/2013 at 1:13 PM, dendrite said: A lock after 4 days...lol. Yeah I certainly wouldn't be confident on a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 What happened to the 8-10 inches the GGEM had lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Euro really slowed down the meat of the event. Looks like it has it coming more on late Fri night and Sat morning. Hopefully that doesn't mean we get a dud Saturday, but we'll have to watch that trend over the next couple runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 On 6/5/2013 at 1:45 PM, ORH_wxman said: Euro really slowed down the meat of the event. Looks like it has it coming more on late Fri night and Sat morning. Hopefully that doesn't mean we get a dud Saturday, but we'll have to watch that trend over the next couple runs. I was really hoping it would speed things up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 5, 2013 Author Share Posted June 5, 2013 On 6/5/2013 at 1:18 PM, Wx Hype said: What happened to the 8-10 inches the GGEM had lol? Yeah--what had been looking to be memorable is looking like more of just a rainy few days. Heavy rain, but nothing particularly noteworthy. The rain equivalents of a SECS. Not a MECS or HECS. 63.2/47--gorgeous out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 NAM.. fwiw has most of the heavy rain in NY/VT/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 On 6/5/2013 at 3:01 PM, Bostonseminole said: NAM.. fwiw has most of the heavy rain in NY/VT/ So do the SREFs...but they are definitely at odds with the global models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Might be time for an AWT,, but lets see global 12z first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 On 6/5/2013 at 3:03 PM, ORH_wxman said: So do the SREFs...but they are definitely at odds with the global models. I know I sound like I do in winter.. but GFS should be interesting, really hoping a fri/sat am event, trying to finish soccer season and not have to extend into next weekend with tournaments already fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 On 6/5/2013 at 1:13 PM, dendrite said: A lock after 4 days...lol. Right. If the remainder of June were to be -2, the month would finish a bit subnormal. Not saying that will happen, as cloudy-night high minima (and whatever happens late in the month) will tell the tale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 North trend FTW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 On 6/5/2013 at 3:05 PM, Wx Hype said: Might be time for an AWT,, but lets see global 12z first AWT = why people don't post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 On 6/5/2013 at 3:32 PM, Tropopause_Fold said: AWT = why people don't post. Philipe, I am seeing hints again of 7/10 split, what exactly drives that scenario where the rain is split with a distinct dry slot, is this a SWFE? type scenario with some tropical air mixed in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 On 6/5/2013 at 3:35 PM, Ginxy said: Philipe, I am seeing hints again of 7/10 split, what exactly drives that scenario where the rain is split with a distinct dry slot, is this a SWFE? type scenario with some tropical air mixed in? 7/10? as in on a clock? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 On 6/5/2013 at 3:32 PM, Tropopause_Fold said: AWT = why people don't post.?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 On 6/5/2013 at 3:37 PM, Tropopause_Fold said: 7/10? as in on a clock? I think he means that the initial PRE/deformation may go and hit NY State while the heaviest stuff from the intensifying coastal stays in SE MA...putting part of SNE in the "split". At least that is how I interpreted it. I still think the main coastal stuff is going to take over and hit us hard, but we still have time to work out details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 gfs confines the heavy stuff to the Cape...majority is offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 On 6/5/2013 at 3:46 PM, ORH_wxman said: I think he means that the initial PRE/deformation may go and hit NY State while the heaviest stuff from the intensifying coastal stays in SE MA...putting part of SNE in the "split". At least that is how I interpreted it. I still think the main coastal stuff is going to take over and hit us hard, but we still have time to work out details. oh OK. yeah you answered his question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 It would be good if for once the 12z GFS was right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Liking the trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Wow, GFS is pretty far SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 5, 2013 Author Share Posted June 5, 2013 Flood alerts cancelled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 The NAM tracks the low up through ALB while the GFS has it SE of ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 On 6/5/2013 at 3:48 PM, Tropopause_Fold said: gfs confines the heavy stuff to the Cape...majority is offshore That would be a "better" solution than the deluge. Looks like some sublte timing differences with the developing TC in the GOM and the trough will have huge impacts on the outcome and sensible weather. Always tough tp predict these things with systems developing in the GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 The downside of the GFS solution is it hangs back a ribbon of moisture along the slowed frontal boundary after the initial sfc low escapes NE...so it leaves us with a pretty sucky Saturday with light to mod rain. Hopefully that doesn't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 On 6/5/2013 at 3:53 PM, ORH_wxman said: The NAM tracks the low up through ALB while the GFS has it SE of ACK. lol, Split the diff it would be a soaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 I still think the euro and its ensembles make more sense, but we'll see. NAM is on crack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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