moneypitmike Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 Discussion tread for the end-of-the week system. If it were the winter, this would have had two threads a week ago. But, given the magnitude of the rain potential, it seems thread-worthy. While the heaviest rains look to be North and West of here, even in those circumstances we still get a good dousing. Sure don't need those excessive amounts here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 Not possible - The drought is still in full effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 Not possible - The drought is still in full effect. See now, I refrained from bumping the drought thread, because I didn't want to troll for the sake of trolling. Actually, I did want to, but I figured someone else would. So thanks. The tumbleweeds and dust storms have clouded my judgement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 Guess I'm not hiking Monadnock on Saturday.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 Looks like a solid 4-8" for all, except NW MA, 1-3" lolli. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 4, 2013 Author Share Posted June 4, 2013 What's with the AFD's all being Sunday's? Some glitch with the links, I guess. Still looks like the heaviest stuff will be staying to the west and north of SNE. NW Mass gets into heavier stuff relative to the rest of SNE, but the real core misses. It's tough to see the EC's track, but it might come right across CT/RI. If somehting pulls that track a bit further east there could be some very heavy rains impacting more folks. As it is, the dust storms that were keeping crops from sprouting a month ago are going to become swamps filled with water-logged heads of lettuce and tomatoe plants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 Euro shifted east a bit. Still a decent SOS signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 Dan Quayle lives in Shelburne? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 4, 2013 Author Share Posted June 4, 2013 Dan Quayle lives in Shelburne? LOL. Between the recent frosty weather and the upcoming monsoon, I'm grateful that my giant pumpkin still resides in an inside pot. I'll wait until after the deluge to get it in the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 I wonder if this tickles east a bit more... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 Looks like it still wants to track over or just west of us thankfully. The flooding rains still look centered over NYS and NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 4, 2013 Author Share Posted June 4, 2013 I wonder if this tickles east a bit more... If it does, it would likely be the worst rains since Irene for NW Mass and SVT. Not to the same degree by any stretch thankfuilly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 Looks like it still wants to track over or just west of us thankfully. The flooding rains still look centered over NYS and NNE Nope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 Nope. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 So far models ticked east a bit. The heavy rain in NY state is almost a PRE feature along a WF (mostly mid level type deal and associated with forcing from a shortwave). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 Pretty favorable orientation of high PWAT air mass and low level wind flow to transport it north and then east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 See now, I refrained from bumping the drought thread, because I didn't want to troll for the sake of trolling. Actually, I did want to, but I figured someone else would. So thanks. The tumbleweeds and dust storms have clouded my judgement. lol. Not looking forward to a soaker if that indeed is what may happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 Some GFS members still bringing in low level air from the N, but a large contingent are drawing from the same location near the tropical Atlantic. Long residence over warm water, then steady isentropic upglide into New England (in this case backward trajectories were run from ORH). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 Some GFS members still bringing in low level air from the N, but a large contingent are drawing from the same location near the tropical Atlantic. Long residence over warm water, then steady isentropic upglide into New England (in this case backward trajectories were run from ORH). So that basically means we're drawing up high Theta air into New Eng translating to tropical type rains and environment? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 Tropical rains perhaps..but the environment depends on WF location. Notice how those parcels ascend on that scale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 Hysplit is useful for volcano eruptions and we had to run it when Fukishima went meltdown mode in Japan because plains weren't going near that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 Tropical rains perhaps..but the environment depends on WF location. Notice how those parcels ascend on that scale. Right, it will depend on where the best low to mid level forcing is. But the warm cloud depths are forecast to be on the order of 12-14 kft on the GFS. Certainly likely that we'll see some warm rain processes if those verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 Right, it will depend on where the best low to mid level forcing is. But the warm cloud depths are forecast to be on the order of 12-14 kft on the GFS. Certainly likely that we'll see some warm rain processes if those verify. Oh yeah for sure. I think Kevin was hoping that those trajectories meant warm air right into SNE at the surface. This has the look of sheet rains where cloud heights are low in any lack of forcing aloft. You know, those fine drops you can get when you have the high theta-e air aloft over temps in the 50s near the surface. Pretty high thicknesses modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 Hopefully the warm front races thru Friday and sets up over the Berks. I could see that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 I'll enjoy this in a time usually lacking interesting meteorology besides a phantom severe threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 Oh yeah for sure. I think Kevin was hoping that those trajectories meant warm air right into SNE at the surface. This has the look of sheet rains where cloud heights are low in any lack of forcing aloft. You know, those fine drops you can get when you have the high theta-e air aloft over temps in the 50s near the surface. Pretty high thicknesses modeled. Tropical rains with extra-tropical surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 Heavy heavy rain on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 Heavy heavy rain on the GFS. How much and start/end times of the worst? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 How much and start/end times of the worst? Looks like worse is from about 9am-3pm or so Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 Looks like worse is from about 9am-3pm or so Friday.Yeah we mentioned start and end times would move up as we closed in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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