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Weekend Heavy Rain Threat


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Flood Advisory

FLOOD ADVISORYNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ140 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013DEC003-MDC015-029-NJC005-007-015-019-021-023-025-027-029-033-035-037-041-PAC017-029-045-091-101-072345-/O.NEW.KPHI.FA.Y.0033.130607T1740Z-130607T2345Z//00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/WARREN NJ-CAMDEN NJ-HUNTERDON NJ-MERCER NJ-MORRIS NJ-SOMERSET NJ-SUSSEX NJ-BUCKS PA-MONTGOMERY PA-PHILADELPHIA PA-DELAWARE PA-GLOUCESTER NJ-NEW CASTLE DE-CECIL MD-KENT MD-CHESTER PA-MIDDLESEX NJ-BURLINGTON NJ-MONMOUTH NJ-OCEAN NJ-SALEM NJ-140 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED AN* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...  WARREN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...  CAMDEN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...  HUNTERDON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...  MERCER COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...  MORRIS COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...  SOMERSET COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...  SUSSEX COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...  BUCKS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...  MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...  PHILADELPHIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...  DELAWARE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...  GLOUCESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...  NEW CASTLE COUNTY IN NORTHERN DELAWARE...  CECIL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MARYLAND...  KENT COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MARYLAND...  CHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...  MIDDLESEX COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...  BURLINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...  MONMOUTH COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...  NORTHERN OCEAN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...  SALEM COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...* UNTIL 745 PM EDT* AT 138 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATEDAREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE REGION, WITHADDITIONAL RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH.THE RAIN IS MOVING NORTHEAST AND WILL FALL ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVEALREADY SEEN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES ON AVERAGE.  ADDITIONALRAINFALL COULD CAUSE PONDING ON ROADWAYS AND LOW LYING AREAS ANDSMALL STREAM FLOODING.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THEROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSSSAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.A FLOOD ADVISORY MEANS RIVER OR STREAM FLOWS ARE ELEVATED OR PONDINGOF WATER IN URBAN OR OTHER AREAS IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT.&&LAT...LON 4010 7402 3951 7510 3956 7524 3940 7545      3959 7555 3938 7551 3913 7626 3952 7599      3972 7622 3979 7605 4010 7591 4061 7520      4134 7465 4122 7439 4104 7450 4090 7427      4060 7444 4061 7421 4045 7396$$NIERENBERG
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Look at all the moisture advecting northward. Couple that with increasing dynamics and an increasing LLJ, we've only just begun.

 

tran.gif?1370631105418

The NYC area and east looks like it will be in the "dry slot" for a time given the progression of the rain so far. But the heavier showers and possible training, plus the heavy core of rain over SE VA/NC rotating in makes it quite dicey.

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SPC now has 2% Tor risk for up to LI Sound tonight:

day1probotlk_2000_torn.gif

.ERN NC/SERN VA/SRN DELMARVA...
   THE ERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL WIND
   FIELD/SHEAR ATTENDANT TO ANDREA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT ERN NC INTO
   SERN VA AND SRN DELMARVA INTO THE EARLY EVENING...AND THUS WILL
   MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT RISK IN THESE AREAS.  THIS OUTLOOK HAS TRIMMED
   THE SRN EXTENT OF THE SLIGHT AS ANDREA CONTINUES TO MOVE NEWD.  FOR
   ADDITIONAL DETAILS IN THESE AREAS...REFER TO SPC MESOSCALE
   DISCUSSION 990.  FARTHER N...A NON-ZERO TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST
   OVER PARTS OF COASTAL NJ TO LONG ISLAND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
   STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS WITH THE ERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF ANDREA ARE
   EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING...GIVEN THE CURRENT NHC TRACK
   FORECAST...AND THUS HIGHER TORNADO PROBABILITIES ARE NOT WARRANTED
   AT THIS TIME INTO LONG ISLAND.

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SPC now has 2% Tor risk for up to LI Sound tonight:

day1probotlk_2000_torn.gif

.ERN NC/SERN VA/SRN DELMARVA...

   THE ERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL WIND

   FIELD/SHEAR ATTENDANT TO ANDREA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT ERN NC INTO

   SERN VA AND SRN DELMARVA INTO THE EARLY EVENING...AND THUS WILL

   MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT RISK IN THESE AREAS.  THIS OUTLOOK HAS TRIMMED

   THE SRN EXTENT OF THE SLIGHT AS ANDREA CONTINUES TO MOVE NEWD.  FOR

   ADDITIONAL DETAILS IN THESE AREAS...REFER TO SPC MESOSCALE

   DISCUSSION 990.  FARTHER N...A NON-ZERO TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST

   OVER PARTS OF COASTAL NJ TO LONG ISLAND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

   STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS WITH THE ERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF ANDREA ARE

   EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING...GIVEN THE CURRENT NHC TRACK

   FORECAST...AND THUS HIGHER TORNADO PROBABILITIES ARE NOT WARRANTED

   AT THIS TIME INTO LONG ISLAND.

Would not be surprised to see the tornado watch extended northward later tonight for a portion of the area (mainly eastern)

 

Any of that convection down in the Delmarva currently will have the ability to produce some brief spin ups. We're lacking instability but we should be getting into some high shear profiles later tonight along with an increasing LLJ.

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