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Weekend Heavy Rain Threat


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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
404 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-061000-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-
EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-
EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
404 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ALONG THE EAST COAST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND REACH NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA DURING SATURDAY. EXTENSIVE TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS LOW COULD RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD RESULT IN
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 2 TO 2 1/2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

 

 

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The GFS forecast has the PW's near record levels here in early June. The forecast sounding

for Friday night has levels near 2.20" for a time as the center passes closest to the area.

The climo max for June 7-8th is about 2.27".

 

 

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NAM is definitely drier than the other models (generally less than 1.5"). Comes in 2 batches one tonight and then another tomorrow night with lighter amounts during the day on Friday

I'd go with models that have a heavy stratiform rain area west of the track and spottier activity east. It makes no sense that the NAM's entire precip shield would be showery like that. Places up to 100 miles or so west of the track should be good for a few inches of rain, maybe more locally. The fast movement is a saving grace here. It doesn't look like the center will move back over land until maybe the outer Cape.

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Looks like a good consensus for up to 3" of rain around here, though higher pockets are certainly possible, maybe up to 5" in localized regions.

I'd say 3-5" of rain is a good estimate for now. That could certainly fall over a 12 or so hour period within the main heavy rain swath west of the low.

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... Flash Flood Watch in effect from Friday morning through
Saturday afternoon... 

The National Weather Service in New York has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of southern Connecticut... 
northeast New Jersey and southeast New York... including the 
following areas... in southern Connecticut... northern 
Fairfield... northern Middlesex... northern New Haven... northern 
New London... southern Fairfield... southern Middlesex... 
southern New Haven and southern New London. In northeast New 
Jersey... eastern Bergen... eastern Essex... eastern Passaic... 
eastern Union... Hudson... western Bergen... western Essex... 
western Passaic and western Union. In southeast New York... 
Bronx... Kings (Brooklyn)... New York (Manhattan)... northeastern 
Suffolk... northern Nassau... northern Queens... northern 
Westchester... northwestern Suffolk... Orange... Putnam... 
Richmond (staten island)... Rockland... southeastern Suffolk... 
southern Nassau... southern Queens... southern Westchester and 
southwestern Suffolk. 

* From Friday morning through Saturday afternoon.

* The remnants of tropical system Andrea... combined with a system
moving in from the west will bring widespread rain across the
tri state area beginning late tonight and lasting until
Saturday. Rainfall amounts between 2 and 4 inches are
forecasted... with the heaviest rain expected Friday afternoon
through early Saturday morning. Maximum hourly rates could reach
between 1 and 2 inches. 

* These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding of urban and
poor drainage areas... as well as small stream flash flooding.
Main stream rivers should remain within their banks. It should
be stressed that while we are expecting a prolonged period of
rainfall... the main concern during this time period will be
flashy responses across the urban areas and small streams.

Precautionary/preparedness actions... 

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should flash flood warnings be issued.

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