IsentropicLift Posted June 6, 2013 Author Share Posted June 6, 2013 Lol okay So we only need about 1.2" to cause some minor flooding here. Frontal boundary with a tropical system blasting in moisture worries me a bit. What did the 18z GFS look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 6, 2013 Author Share Posted June 6, 2013 Real legit tornado threat with a western track, real flood threat with a coastal higher, offshore is our best case scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY404 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-061000-NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-404 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERNCONNECTICUT...NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK..DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO MOVEALONG THE EAST COAST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND REACH NEAR NOVASCOTIA DURING SATURDAY. EXTENSIVE TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATEDWITH THIS LOW COULD RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD RESULT INURBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AWIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 2 TO 2 1/2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHERAMOUNTS POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Nam went east at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 6, 2013 Author Share Posted June 6, 2013 Nam went east at 0zfocuses heaviest rain over NJ. This is already a big tornado/waterspout producer tonight and that will need to be watched closely for us with a NAM track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 00z euro is real wet for our area. 2-3 inches for everyone. Would def be some flash flooding problems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Gfs has finally come around. It's precipitation output made no sense before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Finally, there is a consensus coming around. Those that are living near rivers may want to have their water pump prepared if there are 3"+ rainfall amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 60 mph/997 mb low. Andrea a bit stronger than the first intensity forecast from the NHC which kept it at a 45 mph Tropical storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 The GFS forecast has the PW's near record levels here in early June. The forecast sounding for Friday night has levels near 2.20" for a time as the center passes closest to the area. The climo max for June 7-8th is about 2.27". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Latest NWS graphic now has the entire area (except the Hudson Valley) in the 3 to just under 4 inch range. Heaviest over central L.I. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 7 am cone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 WPC is going with the GGEM and Euro, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 6, 2013 Author Share Posted June 6, 2013 WPC is going with the GGEM and Euro, That would be pretty awful in terms of flooding. I think we could handle 3" fairly well but not widespread 4" plus. These systems are notorious for dumping boat loads of rain in a short period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Even getting 3" in a short amount of time spells trouble, plenty of runoff, quick rise in streams and rivers. But I agree anything in the 4"+ range, especially widespread could lead to significant river flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 NAM is definitely drier than the other models (generally less than 1.5"). Comes in 2 batches one tonight and then another tomorrow night with lighter amounts during the day on Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 NAM is definitely drier than the other models (generally less than 1.5"). Comes in 2 batches one tonight and then another tomorrow night with lighter amounts during the day on Friday I'd go with models that have a heavy stratiform rain area west of the track and spottier activity east. It makes no sense that the NAM's entire precip shield would be showery like that. Places up to 100 miles or so west of the track should be good for a few inches of rain, maybe more locally. The fast movement is a saving grace here. It doesn't look like the center will move back over land until maybe the outer Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markyk Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Weird 12z GFS has a 2nd blob of moisture Saturday PM..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Weird 12z GFS has a 2nd blob of moisture Saturday PM..... NAM had it to some extent as well. Rain now into sunday with that second piece. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Euro 3-4 of rain for the metro area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Euro 3-4 of rain for the metro area Looks like a good consensus for up to 3" of rain around here, though higher pockets are certainly possible, maybe up to 5" in localized regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Looks like a good consensus for up to 3" of rain around here, though higher pockets are certainly possible, maybe up to 5" in localized regions. I'd say 3-5" of rain is a good estimate for now. That could certainly fall over a 12 or so hour period within the main heavy rain swath west of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 ... Flash Flood Watch in effect from Friday morning throughSaturday afternoon... The National Weather Service in New York has issued a* Flash Flood Watch for portions of southern Connecticut... northeast New Jersey and southeast New York... including the following areas... in southern Connecticut... northern Fairfield... northern Middlesex... northern New Haven... northern New London... southern Fairfield... southern Middlesex... southern New Haven and southern New London. In northeast New Jersey... eastern Bergen... eastern Essex... eastern Passaic... eastern Union... Hudson... western Bergen... western Essex... western Passaic and western Union. In southeast New York... Bronx... Kings (Brooklyn)... New York (Manhattan)... northeastern Suffolk... northern Nassau... northern Queens... northern Westchester... northwestern Suffolk... Orange... Putnam... Richmond (staten island)... Rockland... southeastern Suffolk... southern Nassau... southern Queens... southern Westchester and southwestern Suffolk. * From Friday morning through Saturday afternoon.* The remnants of tropical system Andrea... combined with a systemmoving in from the west will bring widespread rain across thetri state area beginning late tonight and lasting untilSaturday. Rainfall amounts between 2 and 4 inches areforecasted... with the heaviest rain expected Friday afternoonthrough early Saturday morning. Maximum hourly rates could reachbetween 1 and 2 inches. * These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding of urban andpoor drainage areas... as well as small stream flash flooding.Main stream rivers should remain within their banks. It shouldbe stressed that while we are expecting a prolonged period ofrainfall... the main concern during this time period will beflashy responses across the urban areas and small streams.Precautionary/preparedness actions... A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that leadto flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take actionshould flash flood warnings be issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Upton increased amounts . 3-4 inches area wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Last rainfall amounts from WPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 We will see rain totals on par with the 1996 October Nor'easter with 4 to 6 inches of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 At least it's the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 The Nam joins the party finally, but keeps the heaviest a bit further west than other models. Still widespread 2-3" rains are likely and depending on the PRE setup, some spots could pick up 5-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 At least it's the NAM Too amplified. Not likely to verify, unless if the Frontal Boundary is stronger than expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 At least it's the NAM The convergence zone along the frontal boundary will be where the worst rains set up. These often end up over N NJ, so I could see the heaviest being there. They also could get the heaviest rain from the initial wave we see now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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