bluewave Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 We're not talking about that sharp of a cut off with this event. The NAM coming a bit east would be rather scary as it's showing excessive amounts of rainfall over PA and Upstate NY The GGEM is also close to excessive amounts as well. The NAM west track is an outlier, so I would probably go with the Euro QPF output this run and refine the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 12z Euro has 2.53" of rain for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 12z Euro has 2.53" of rain for NYC. That would put Central Park comfortably over 10 inches of rain since May 8th at around 12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 5, 2013 Author Share Posted June 5, 2013 12z Euro has 2.53" of rain for NYC. Did it shift east or west? Is that the high mark for the area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Did it shift east or west? Is that the high mark for the area? SWCT is 2.75". High marks are there with close to 3" in some parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 5, 2013 Author Share Posted June 5, 2013 SWCT is 2.75". High marks are there with close to 3" in some parts. What about New Jersey? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 What about New Jersey? NYC: 2.53" BDR: 2.80" EWR: 2.36" ISP: 2.58" FOK: 2.42" ABE: 1.76" PHL: 1.77" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 5, 2013 Author Share Posted June 5, 2013 NYC: 2.53" BDR: 2.80" EWR: 2.36" ISP: 2.58" FOK: 2.42" ABE: 1.76" PHL: 1.77" Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Well we should be ok with 2-2.5". I think flooding, if any, would be minor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Eh, I think we could deal with 2-2.5" here. That would probably cause minor flooding. Anything about 3" would be quite troublesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 this is convective rainfall from a system with tropical origins. there will probably be a band of much higher amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 5, 2013 Author Share Posted June 5, 2013 The 18z NAM is still way west, but it did tick more towards jackpotting our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 this is convective rainfall from a system with tropical origins. there will probably be a band of much higher amounts Yeah, spots that get under the heaviest bands could finish with local 5+ amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 If NAM inland track were correct (which is unlikely) there will be isolated tornado threat coming up the east coast. Strong directional shear, strong LLJ, high dewpoints, low lcl, on the east side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 5, 2013 Author Share Posted June 5, 2013 HPC going with 3-4" totals for the area That would likely cause some moderate flooding across the region We've had a few dry days, but the soil is quite saturated and the reservoirs are more full than they were a month ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 5, 2013 Author Share Posted June 5, 2013 This chart gives you a pretty good idea of how much water the soil can take before it's completely saturated. Once that happens, everything else runs off and that's bad news FOUS61 KRHA 052002FFGNJCOUNTY FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR NEW JERSEYMIDDLE ATLANTIC RIVER FORECAST CENTERNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA402 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2013APPROXIMATE 1/3/6/12-HR RAINFALL (INCHES) NEEDED TO BEGINSMALL STREAM FLOODING. THIS GUIDANCE IS NOT APPLICABLE FORURBAN, BASEMENT, OR OTHER FLOODING NOT ASSOCIATED WITH A STREAM..B RHA 130605 Z DH18/DC1306052002 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF/PPKCF::IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR 12HR ZONE NAME:======= ==== ==== ==== ==== ====================:: NWS MT. HOLLY SERVICE AREA...NJZ001 1.9/ 2.6/ 2.7/ 2.8 :Sussex Co.NJZ007 2.1/ 2.9/ 3.0/ 3.2 :Warren Co.NJZ008 1.6/ 2.2/ 2.3/ 2.4 :Morris Co.NJZ009 2.3/ 3.1/ 3.3/ 3.5 :Hunterdon Co.NJZ010 2.1/ 2.9/ 3.0/ 3.2 :Somerset Co.NJZ012 1.8/ 2.4/ 2.5/ 2.6 :Middlesex Co.NJZ013 2.4/ 3.3/ 3.4/ 3.6 :W. Monmouth Co.NJZ015 2.2/ 2.9/ 3.0/ 3.2 :Mercer Co.NJZ016 3.0/ 4.5/ 4.9/ 5.2 :Salem Co.NJZ017 3.0/ 4.4/ 4.8/ 5.1 :Gloucester Co.NJZ018 3.0/ 4.1/ 4.5/ 4.7 :Camden Co.NJZ019 3.0/ 4.2/ 4.4/ 4.7 :NW Burlington Co.NJZ027 3.0/ 4.5/ 5.4/ 5.8 :SE Burlington Co.NJZ020 3.0/ 4.3/ 4.6/ 4.8 :Inland Ocean Co.NJZ021 3.0/ 4.3/ 4.6/ 4.9 :Cumberland Co.NJZ022 3.0/ 4.4/ 4.8/ 5.1 :Inland Atlantic CoNJZ023 3.0/ 4.4/ 4.6/ 4.9 :Inland Cape May Co:: COASTAL ZONES (LESSER AMOUNTS OF RAIN CAN CAUSE: FLOODING DURING HIGH TIDE):NJZ014 2.0/ 2.5/ 3.0/ 4.0 :E. Monmouth Co.NJZ024 2.0/ 2.5/ 3.0/ 4.0 :Cape May Co. coastNJZ025 2.0/ 2.5/ 3.0/ 4.0 :Atlantic Co. coastNJZ026 2.0/ 2.5/ 3.0/ 4.0 :Ocean Co. coast:: NWS NEW YORK SERVICE AREA...NJZ002 1.5/ 2.2/ 2.3/ 2.5 :W. Passaic Co.NJZ004 1.1/ 1.6/ 1.6/ 1.7 :E. Passaic Co.NJZ103 1.1/ 1.6/ 1.7/ 1.8 :W. Bergen Co.NJZ104 1.3/ 1.8/ 1.9/ 2.0 :E. Bergen Co.NJZ105 1.4/ 2.0/ 2.1/ 2.2 :W. Essex Co.NJZ106 1.3/ 1.8/ 1.9/ 2.1 :E. Essex Co.NJZ006 1.3/ 1.8/ 1.9/ 2.0 :Hudson Co.NJZ107 1.6/ 2.2/ 2.3/ 2.4 :W.Union Co.NJZ108 1.3/ 1.7/ 1.8/ 1.9 :E.Union Co..END$$NNNN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Recon looks like they just closed off a LLC. There were already winds reported at TS force. So it may get upgraded soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 5, 2013 Author Share Posted June 5, 2013 Recon looks like they just closed off a LLC. There were already winds reported over TS force. So it may get upgraded soon. Yeah, not sure how much downstream affects that will have for us. It still gets sheared appart pretty quickly once it comes ashore on all the modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 We now have Andrea: AL, 01, 2013060518, , BEST, 0, 253N, 866W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 50, 120, 0, 0, 1010, 250, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ANDRE, M, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL530 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE DISCUSSION ON THE LOW PRESSURE AREAIN THE GULF OF MEXICOFOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS ABLE TO IDENTIFY AWELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION IN THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THISFINDING...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WILL INITIATE ADVISORIES ONTROPICAL STORM ANDREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS AHIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONEDURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 530 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013 SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE DISCUSSION ON THE LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS ABLE TO IDENTIFY A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION IN THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EAST- CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS FINDING...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WILL INITIATE ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. I don't understand the last part, isn't it already a tropical cyclone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Andrea..MODIS 1-day SST average, and global and ensemble model tracks. Full image here: http://img856.imageshack.us/img856/305/andrealf.jpg Notice the ensembles are too far west. GFS might migrate east at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 I don't understand the last part, isn't it already a tropical cyclone? Yeah, it's definitely odd wording by the NHC for sure. I guess it's standard for them to write that for any Tropical System, when advisories have not been quite initiated yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 I can't believe we are dealing with a tropical storm already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Any wind? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 This thing is really going to be making a beeline. Looks like the rain could be out of here by Friday night saving the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Any wind? I'm thinking probably 40-45mph gusts at most for coastal locations. Nothing too catastrophic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 5, 2013 Author Share Posted June 5, 2013 The saving grace in terms of rainfall may be the fast movement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Lol okay So we only need about 1.2" to cause some minor flooding here. Frontal boundary with a tropical system blasting in moisture worries me a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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