Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,858
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Johnlor5294
    Newest Member
    Johnlor5294
    Joined

Weekend Heavy Rain Threat


Recommended Posts

Recent modeling seems to be waivering back and forth with the strength of tropical development in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. The strength and timing of the system a long with the eastward progression of a frontal boundry will be important factors in determining the sensible weather for our region, mainly next Friday night and Saturday. As of the 12z suite today, the GGEM is the most aggressive in terms of heavy rain, however the GFS and Euro all show this threat.

 

 

00z

 

GGEM-0T+120.gif

 

 

12z

 

P6_PN_108_0000.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 161
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Thank you YanksFan27. I've asked that if someone can start this thread twice because I don't want anyone to be extremely disappointed this weekend if there was any plans that he/she had in mind. Anyway, this threat looks legit. The questions are: How much enhancement is this storm going to have from the trough? Also: Will this storm hold itself together for the trough to get close enough for the phase?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I hope there a chance that the rain from Friday can clear the area with drying and clearing by Saturday afternoon with some hope of drying and seeing the sun by my dinner plans on Saturday at 6:00pm.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 6/4/2013 at 1:52 PM, Plfdwxdude said:

Heavy rain threat seems to be fading fast. Euro has less than an inch and GFS has a couple tenths.

That's because the models are trending towards a weaker, sheared out system. If that's the case, it will be a non-event up this way. The situation needs to be closely monitored.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 6/4/2013 at 3:07 PM, Plfdwxdude said:

Better safe than sorry, Thursday will be dry at least

I'm not so sure, GFS has really sped things up: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer&param=1000_500_thick&cycle=12ℑ=gfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_063_1000_500_thick.gif

EDIT: I guess it moved the precip. axis farther south Thursday afternoon more than it sped up.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 6/4/2013 at 4:05 PM, H2Otown_WX said:

I'm not so sure, GFS has really sped things up: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer&param=1000_500_thick&cycle=12ℑ=gfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_063_1000_500_thick.gif

EDIT: I guess it moved the precip. axis farther south Thursday afternoon more than it sped up.

It's still dry Thursday during the day and evening

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 6/4/2013 at 5:22 PM, Snow88 said:

Canadian is still really impressive

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html

Yeah, it doesn't phase with the trough though like it was showing a few days ago. We get some heavy rain before the main show as well. Sort of reminds me a bit of Floyd 99'. Of course Floyd was a hurricane into the Carolinas but it did phase with a frontal boundry and brought major flooding to the area.

 

Not sure how much precip the Euro shows as I let my sub expire for the summer, but the 12z run does track the low in nearly the same position as the GGEM

 

f96.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 6/4/2013 at 6:33 PM, YanksFan27 said:

Yeah, it doesn't phase with the trough though like it was showing a few days ago. We get some heavy rain before the main show as well. Sort of reminds me a bit of Floyd 99'. Of course Floyd was a hurricane into the Carolinas but it did phase with a frontal boundry and brought major flooding to the area.

 

Not sure how much precip the Euro shows as I let my sub expire for the summer, but the 12z run does track the low in nearly the same position as the GGEM

 

 

 

Euro shows 2.50"-3" of rain for the NYC area and LI.

GGEM shows 4"-5" for coastal sections (3"-4" inland) and it also shows 6"-8" for SNE coast.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 6/4/2013 at 6:40 PM, ag3 said:

Euro shows 2.50"-3" of rain for the NYC area and LI.

GGEM shows 4"-5" for coastal sections (3"-4" inland) and it also shows 6"-8" for SNE coast.

Yikes, those numbers might break the bank in a few spots

 

HPC has significant 7 day totals along the eastern seabord

 

p168i.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 6/4/2013 at 7:08 PM, YanksFan27 said:

Yikes, those numbers might break the bank in a few spots

 

HPC has significant 7 day totals along the eastern seabord

 

p168i.gif

 

This could be a big problem for me on the Ramapo, along with what we already have gotten recently.  This image is enough to give me the chills.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The exact track of the low is going to determine where the heaviest rain near and NW of the track

sets up. The 0Z Euro shifter a little further east from the 12z. The models are hinting that PW's

will approach near record levels for June over 2"

 

0Z

 

 

12z

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If the surface low tracks west of our area like the NAM indicates, we could be looking at a severe weather threat with a small warm sector and very impressive low level shear. The NAM itself has a very high SCP which isn't surprising given the 0-1/0-3km helicity parameters and instability with the surface low tracking over Northeast PA.

 

namNE_con_scp_078.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 6/5/2013 at 3:49 PM, earthlight said:

If the surface low tracks west of our area like the NAM indicates, we could be looking at a severe weather threat with a small warm sector and very impressive low level shear. The NAM itself has a very high SCP which isn't surprising given the 0-1/0-3km helicity parameters and instability with the surface low tracking over Northeast PA.

 

namNE_con_scp_078.gif

That is very impressive actually, was not expecting that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This looks just like what we saw with an event like the February Blizzard. The GFS was too far east

and the NAM too far west. Right now I would go with a 0Z Euro 12z UK compromise until we see

what the Euro does in a little while.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 6/5/2013 at 5:46 PM, bluewave said:

This looks just like what we saw with an event like the February Blizzard. The GFS was too far east

and the NAM too far west. Right now I would go with a 0Z Euro 12z UK compromise until we see

what the Euro does in a little while.

 

attachicon.gifsnd.gif

We're not talking about that sharp of a cut off with this event. The NAM coming a bit east would be rather scary as it's showing excessive amounts of rainfall over PA and Upstate NY

 

The GGEM is also close to excessive amounts as well.

 

PR_000-120_0000.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...