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Weekend Heavy Rain Threat


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Recent modeling seems to be waivering back and forth with the strength of tropical development in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. The strength and timing of the system a long with the eastward progression of a frontal boundry will be important factors in determining the sensible weather for our region, mainly next Friday night and Saturday. As of the 12z suite today, the GGEM is the most aggressive in terms of heavy rain, however the GFS and Euro all show this threat.

 

 

00z

 

GGEM-0T+120.gif

 

 

12z

 

P6_PN_108_0000.gif

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Thank you YanksFan27. I've asked that if someone can start this thread twice because I don't want anyone to be extremely disappointed this weekend if there was any plans that he/she had in mind. Anyway, this threat looks legit. The questions are: How much enhancement is this storm going to have from the trough? Also: Will this storm hold itself together for the trough to get close enough for the phase?

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I hope there a chance that the rain from Friday can clear the area with drying and clearing by Saturday afternoon with some hope of drying and seeing the sun by my dinner plans on Saturday at 6:00pm.

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Canadian is still really impressive

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html

Yeah, it doesn't phase with the trough though like it was showing a few days ago. We get some heavy rain before the main show as well. Sort of reminds me a bit of Floyd 99'. Of course Floyd was a hurricane into the Carolinas but it did phase with a frontal boundry and brought major flooding to the area.

 

Not sure how much precip the Euro shows as I let my sub expire for the summer, but the 12z run does track the low in nearly the same position as the GGEM

 

f96.gif

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Yeah, it doesn't phase with the trough though like it was showing a few days ago. We get some heavy rain before the main show as well. Sort of reminds me a bit of Floyd 99'. Of course Floyd was a hurricane into the Carolinas but it did phase with a frontal boundry and brought major flooding to the area.

 

Not sure how much precip the Euro shows as I let my sub expire for the summer, but the 12z run does track the low in nearly the same position as the GGEM

 

 

 

Euro shows 2.50"-3" of rain for the NYC area and LI.

GGEM shows 4"-5" for coastal sections (3"-4" inland) and it also shows 6"-8" for SNE coast.

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Yikes, those numbers might break the bank in a few spots

 

HPC has significant 7 day totals along the eastern seabord

 

p168i.gif

 

This could be a big problem for me on the Ramapo, along with what we already have gotten recently.  This image is enough to give me the chills.

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The exact track of the low is going to determine where the heaviest rain near and NW of the track

sets up. The 0Z Euro shifter a little further east from the 12z. The models are hinting that PW's

will approach near record levels for June over 2"

 

0Z

 

 

12z

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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If the surface low tracks west of our area like the NAM indicates, we could be looking at a severe weather threat with a small warm sector and very impressive low level shear. The NAM itself has a very high SCP which isn't surprising given the 0-1/0-3km helicity parameters and instability with the surface low tracking over Northeast PA.

 

namNE_con_scp_078.gif

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If the surface low tracks west of our area like the NAM indicates, we could be looking at a severe weather threat with a small warm sector and very impressive low level shear. The NAM itself has a very high SCP which isn't surprising given the 0-1/0-3km helicity parameters and instability with the surface low tracking over Northeast PA.

 

namNE_con_scp_078.gif

That is very impressive actually, was not expecting that.

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This looks just like what we saw with an event like the February Blizzard. The GFS was too far east

and the NAM too far west. Right now I would go with a 0Z Euro 12z UK compromise until we see

what the Euro does in a little while.

 

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This looks just like what we saw with an event like the February Blizzard. The GFS was too far east

and the NAM too far west. Right now I would go with a 0Z Euro 12z UK compromise until we see

what the Euro does in a little while.

 

attachicon.gifsnd.gif

We're not talking about that sharp of a cut off with this event. The NAM coming a bit east would be rather scary as it's showing excessive amounts of rainfall over PA and Upstate NY

 

The GGEM is also close to excessive amounts as well.

 

PR_000-120_0000.gif

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