IsentropicLift Posted June 3, 2013 Share Posted June 3, 2013 Recent modeling seems to be waivering back and forth with the strength of tropical development in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. The strength and timing of the system a long with the eastward progression of a frontal boundry will be important factors in determining the sensible weather for our region, mainly next Friday night and Saturday. As of the 12z suite today, the GGEM is the most aggressive in terms of heavy rain, however the GFS and Euro all show this threat. 00z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted June 3, 2013 Share Posted June 3, 2013 12Z ECMWF basically agrees with the same scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted June 3, 2013 Share Posted June 3, 2013 Thank you YanksFan27. I've asked that if someone can start this thread twice because I don't want anyone to be extremely disappointed this weekend if there was any plans that he/she had in mind. Anyway, this threat looks legit. The questions are: How much enhancement is this storm going to have from the trough? Also: Will this storm hold itself together for the trough to get close enough for the phase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted June 3, 2013 Share Posted June 3, 2013 Good you started this thread, it seems heavy rain is not a weather event on this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 3, 2013 Author Share Posted June 3, 2013 HPC is already highlighting the region for some significant rains for the end of the week. 2-3" widespread isn't going to break the bank in most areas, but that number could be conservative with the right amount of LLJ interaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sb7881 Posted June 3, 2013 Share Posted June 3, 2013 I hope there a chance that the rain from Friday can clear the area with drying and clearing by Saturday afternoon with some hope of drying and seeing the sun by my dinner plans on Saturday at 6:00pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 GEFS is in a good agreement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 4, 2013 Author Share Posted June 4, 2013 The 00z GGEM now tracks just offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 Heavy rain threat seems to be fading fast. Euro has less than an inch and GFS has a couple tenths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 4, 2013 Author Share Posted June 4, 2013 Heavy rain threat seems to be fading fast. Euro has less than an inch and GFS has a couple tenths. That's because the models are trending towards a weaker, sheared out system. If that's the case, it will be a non-event up this way. The situation needs to be closely monitored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 We just moved a company event (outdoors) from Friday to Thursday -- bad call? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 We just moved a company event (outdoors) from Friday to Thursday -- bad call? Better safe than sorry, Thursday will be dry at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 Better safe than sorry, Thursday will be dry at least I'm not so sure, GFS has really sped things up: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=1000_500_thick&cycle=12ℑ=gfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_063_1000_500_thick.gif EDIT: I guess it moved the precip. axis farther south Thursday afternoon more than it sped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 I'm not so sure, GFS has really sped things up: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=1000_500_thick&cycle=12ℑ=gfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_063_1000_500_thick.gif EDIT: I guess it moved the precip. axis farther south Thursday afternoon more than it sped up. It's still dry Thursday during the day and evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 Canadian is still really impressive http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 4, 2013 Author Share Posted June 4, 2013 Canadian is still really impressive http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html Yeah, it doesn't phase with the trough though like it was showing a few days ago. We get some heavy rain before the main show as well. Sort of reminds me a bit of Floyd 99'. Of course Floyd was a hurricane into the Carolinas but it did phase with a frontal boundry and brought major flooding to the area. Not sure how much precip the Euro shows as I let my sub expire for the summer, but the 12z run does track the low in nearly the same position as the GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 Yeah, it doesn't phase with the trough though like it was showing a few days ago. We get some heavy rain before the main show as well. Sort of reminds me a bit of Floyd 99'. Of course Floyd was a hurricane into the Carolinas but it did phase with a frontal boundry and brought major flooding to the area. Not sure how much precip the Euro shows as I let my sub expire for the summer, but the 12z run does track the low in nearly the same position as the GGEM Euro shows 2.50"-3" of rain for the NYC area and LI. GGEM shows 4"-5" for coastal sections (3"-4" inland) and it also shows 6"-8" for SNE coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 4, 2013 Author Share Posted June 4, 2013 Euro shows 2.50"-3" of rain for the NYC area and LI. GGEM shows 4"-5" for coastal sections (3"-4" inland) and it also shows 6"-8" for SNE coast. Yikes, those numbers might break the bank in a few spots HPC has significant 7 day totals along the eastern seabord Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Devil Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Yikes, those numbers might break the bank in a few spots HPC has significant 7 day totals along the eastern seabord This could be a big problem for me on the Ramapo, along with what we already have gotten recently. This image is enough to give me the chills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 5, 2013 Author Share Posted June 5, 2013 This could be a big problem for me on the Ramapo, along with what we already have gotten recently. This image is enough to give me the chills.Me too on the Pompton, looks like amounts were increased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 The exact track of the low is going to determine where the heaviest rain near and NW of the track sets up. The 0Z Euro shifter a little further east from the 12z. The models are hinting that PW's will approach near record levels for June over 2" 0Z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 5, 2013 Author Share Posted June 5, 2013 The 06z GFS tracks just offshore but is a bit dry on the west side, the 06z NAM misses us with a western track but dumps many, many inches of rain over the interior and the 00z GGEM remains very wet with heavy rain from the initial frontal boundry and then the main show Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 If the surface low tracks west of our area like the NAM indicates, we could be looking at a severe weather threat with a small warm sector and very impressive low level shear. The NAM itself has a very high SCP which isn't surprising given the 0-1/0-3km helicity parameters and instability with the surface low tracking over Northeast PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 If the surface low tracks west of our area like the NAM indicates, we could be looking at a severe weather threat with a small warm sector and very impressive low level shear. The NAM itself has a very high SCP which isn't surprising given the 0-1/0-3km helicity parameters and instability with the surface low tracking over Northeast PA. That is very impressive actually, was not expecting that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 5, 2013 Author Share Posted June 5, 2013 The GFS is insisting on a track just offshore and sheares out most of the organized precip. We would be looking at 1-2"+ if that occured rather than the 5-8" that the NAM is showing just to our west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 5, 2013 Author Share Posted June 5, 2013 The NAM sure has that wrapped up look with banding possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 5, 2013 Author Share Posted June 5, 2013 The 12z GGEM focuses the main rain event from NYC eastward with very, very heavy rain for Long Island and SNE. NNJ also gets healthy amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 With models shifting east , we could be spared the worst however anything can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 This looks just like what we saw with an event like the February Blizzard. The GFS was too far east and the NAM too far west. Right now I would go with a 0Z Euro 12z UK compromise until we see what the Euro does in a little while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 5, 2013 Author Share Posted June 5, 2013 This looks just like what we saw with an event like the February Blizzard. The GFS was too far east and the NAM too far west. Right now I would go with a 0Z Euro 12z UK compromise until we see what the Euro does in a little while. snd.gif We're not talking about that sharp of a cut off with this event. The NAM coming a bit east would be rather scary as it's showing excessive amounts of rainfall over PA and Upstate NY The GGEM is also close to excessive amounts as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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