Brian5671 Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 64 knots at its strongest-hard to see how it survives the trek over Haiti, but the canadian also has it becoming a hurricane once in the waters off the SE coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 9, 2013 Author Share Posted July 9, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 king euro does the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 9, 2013 Author Share Posted July 9, 2013 king euro does the sameIt has a cane hitting the US? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 its atleast a tropical storm It has a cane hitting the US? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 i've just noticed that sometimes he makes pretty bold calls that, to me at least, don't make too much sense...but he's not pompous or arrogant about stuff so they go rather unnoticed. Yeah, I remember his erratic "blizzard!!!!!!" tweets this winter on a storm which missed badly, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 its atleast a tropical storm it hardly even has a closed circulation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 Yeah, I remember his erratic "blizzard!!!!!!" tweets this winter on a storm which missed badly, lol. I believe it was actually "blizzard option is still on the table" well after models had come to a consensus of it being a miss to be specific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 lol...well he also said this: My forecast for New England this year is we get 1-2 significant hurricane hits.It matches the pattern. okay..I don't follow the twitter or tv, just going by what was written. That's a pretty bold call, we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 okay..I don't follow the twitter or tv, just going by what was written. That's a pretty bold call, we'll see. that's what was written in the article. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 I could list the epic fails by mets here too but will not. I respect Tim he has put his name on the line and has the balls to do it. Scientifically persistent patterns developed early this year. It's why every single H forecast has a much higher than normal chance of an East Coast hit. Will it happen? Who knows but he is convinced it will. To demean him like Bob did and say it's for the Twitter following is ignorant of fact. I would rather not say how wishy washy most are when it comes to forecasts, he made a call and let's see what happens. Comparing him to Bastardi was low too. He is a hypster looking to make money, Tim is a weather geek looking to figure out the key to NE hurricane season predictions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 that's what was written in the article. ...in Scott's post, the one I responded to. Didn't see an article. Hopefully Tim Kelley is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 I could list the epic fails by mets here too but will not. I respect Tim he has put his name on the line and has the balls to do it. Scientifically persistent patterns developed early this year. It's why every single H forecast has a much higher than normal chance of an East Coast hit. Will it happen? Who knows but he is convinced it will. To demean him like Bob did and say it's for the Twitter following is ignorant of fact. I would rather not say how wishy washy most are when it comes to forecasts, he made a call and let's see what happens. Comparing him to Bastardi was low too. He is a hypster looking to make money, Tim is a weather geek looking to figure out the key to NE hurricane season predictions. "My forecast for New England this year is we get 1-2 significant hurricane hits. It matches the pattern." "we should not be surprised if two hurricanes impact New England between August 18 and September 21" So Tim knows for sure what the patter will be from Aug 18-Sept 21 on July 9th? Calling for 2 significant hurricane impacts in New England is hype. How many years can you point to that had 1 significant hit, let alone 2? The odds are astronomically high for 2 significant hurricanes to impact New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 Looks like Chantal will head east of me in Lauderdale. Maybe some heavy rain, gusty winds on that track. Would at least be some cool surf maybe. Not out of the woods yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 So Tim knows for sure what the patter will be from Aug 18-Sept 21 on July 9th? Calling for 2 significant hurricane impacts in New England is hype. How many years can you point to that had 1 significant hit, let alone 2? The odds are astronomically high for 2 significant hurricanes to impact New England. Has it occurred since 1954? With "significant" hurricanes? Rarity doesn't equal impossibility, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 I could list the epic fails by mets here too but will not. I respect Tim he has put his name on the line and has the balls to do it. Scientifically persistent patterns developed early this year. It's why every single H forecast has a much higher than normal chance of an East Coast hit. Will it happen? Who knows but he is convinced it will. To demean him like Bob did and say it's for the Twitter following is ignorant of fact. I would rather not say how wishy washy most are when it comes to forecasts, he made a call and let's see what happens. Comparing him to Bastardi was low too. He is a hypster looking to make money, Tim is a weather geek looking to figure out the key to NE hurricane season predictions. well...sounds like you've said it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 LOL, wishy washy? Yeah it's horrible to list the caveats of a forecast, but yet lets say a 1-200 yr event will happen in a 30 day time. OK. Makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 Twitter has done some horrible, horrible things to weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 Like I said, weenies come to the rescue. Nobody is bashing him..just questioning a rather bold post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 but anyway steve...i don't have a problem with that call. he could call for 50 storms for all i care...but i do think it's good to provide some detailed reasoning. and it's not just his blog...it's tied directly to NECN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 Like I said, weenies come to the rescue. Nobody is bashing him..just questioning a rather bold post. yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 Twitter has done some horrible, horrible things to weather. not just weather. all news. twitter is awesome (imho lol) but it's weird how much incorrect information is passed along through it. if it weren't twitter though, it would just be some other medium. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 Cool site with tropical models: http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/models/data.cgi?basin=al&year=2013&storm=03&display=googlemap&latestrun=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 Sorry PRE? I tried to look it up but I get hurricane pre-parations....lol Predecessor Rainfall Event... normally occurs when the large area of high TPW interacts with a strong upper-level jet to create a large swath of rainfall ahead of an incoming TC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 So Tim knows for sure what the patter will be from Aug 18-Sept 21 on July 9th? Calling for 2 significant hurricane impacts in New England is hype. How many years can you point to that had 1 significant hit, let alone 2? The odds are astronomically high for 2 significant hurricanes to impact New England.1954 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 I could list the epic fails by mets here too but will not. I respect Tim he has put his name on the line and has the balls to do it. Scientifically persistent patterns developed early this year. It's why every single H forecast has a much higher than normal chance of an East Coast hit. Will it happen? Who knows but he is convinced it will. To demean him like Bob did and say it's for the Twitter following is ignorant of fact. I would rather not say how wishy washy most are when it comes to forecasts, he made a call and let's see what happens. Comparing him to Bastardi was low too. He is a hypster looking to make money, Tim is a weather geek looking to figure out the key to NE hurricane season predictions. I dunno man. The reality is that meteorology has not yet gotten to a point that exact storm tracks are predictable a few days out, nevermind a week or a month out. IMHO, anyone who makes predictions like this is just testing out a hypothesis and sharing it with people interested in listening. If they call it a forecast, that's bad science. If they call it a pattern that could produce something, that's fair enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 LOL, wishy washy? Yeah it's horrible to list the caveats of a forecast, but yet lets say a 1-200 yr event will happen in a 30 day time. OK. Makes sense.Yea cover all bases, cover your ass, can never be wrong, those forecasts are the easy way out and seem prevelant. Lots of scared mets afraid to make a blown call. It has gotten worse than ever as bad as the hypsters are the wishy washy guys make me sick. Jesus make a damn forecast right or wrong. What the hell kind of person wants to hear a forecast that states, heavy snow tomorrow 6-12 but it might not snow, could be dry, could turn to rain, maybe it is heavier if this happens but then again if this happens, meh, cover your ass then you never get critiqued. I call BS on your weenies to the rescue too. You called him out for him making a call I thought it took guts, you respond by using a demeaning tone. Bob added a another dig by saying it was all hype for his Twitter account. Pretty insulting if you ask me. Yea Phil I said it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 I dunno man. The reality is that meteorology has not yet gotten to a point that exact storm tracks are predictable a few days out, nevermind a week or a month out. IMHO, anyone who makes predictions like this is just testing out a hypothesis and sharing it with people interested in listening. If they call it a forecast, that's bad science. If they call it a pattern that could produce something, that's fair enough.I concur but he had the balls to lay his thoughts out while the peanut gallery takes pot shots. It's always the non main streamers who get the potshots, you know like the ones who claimed in the 70' s that the Solar influence was much greater than thought. Yea they were considered wackos too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 Yea cover all bases, cover your ass, can never be wrong, those forecasts are the easy way out and seem prevelant. Lots of scared mets afraid to make a blown call. It has gotten worse than ever as bad as the hypsters are the wishy washy guys make me sick. Jesus make a damn forecast right or wrong. What the hell kind of person wants to hear a forecast that states, heavy snow tomorrow 6-12 but it might not snow, could be dry, could turn to rain, maybe it is heavier if this happens but then again if this happens, meh, cover your ass then you never get critiqued. I call BS on your weenies to the rescue too. You called him out for him making a call I thought it took guts, you respond by using a demeaning tone. Bob added a another dig by saying it was all hype for his Twitter account. Pretty insulting if you ask me. Yea Phil I said it. I'm not big into arguing about the weather. IMHO, honest mets admit that they can't make a call when they can't make a call. What's the point of making a forecast if you can cite 5 reasons why it might fail? When the weenies/hypsters are right, sometimes they are just lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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