CoastalWx Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 Why those specific dates? Yeah...not sure about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 I don't even know what to say after reading that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 Why those specific dates? Yeah...not sure about that. Yeah it is oddly specific. But hey it's bound to happen again eventually, I'm sure he's got to be somewhat confident about what he's seeing to make a call like that. Or maybe he just wants to play the wx boogey man lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 I don't even know what to say after reading that.There's almost no scientific reasoning to that article (more like some scientific"noise" to make it seem somewhat professional) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 I don't even know what to say after reading that.he said he would not be surprised, not exactly a forecast, he is discussioning similaritiesbetween years past. I think there's a lot of people who are reading this article the wrong way. Just like here discussion is not a forecast. Of course anyone who discusses anything is subject to ridicule here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 Yeah it is oddly specific. But hey it's bound to happen again eventually, I'm sure he's got to be somewhat confident about what he's seeing to make a call like that. Or maybe he just wants to play the wx boogey man lol. Well it could always happen, but the reasoning behind it is peculiar to say the least. Saying we could get hit with two tropical systems is more realistic than two significant hurricane hits. That's a very bold statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 There's almost no scientific reasoning to that article (more like some scientific"noise" to make it seem somewhat professional)its a blog not a research paper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 he said he would not be surprised, not exactly a forecast, he is discussioning similaritiesbetween years past. I think there's a lot of people who are reading this article the wrong way. Just like here discussion is not a forecast. Of course anyone who discusses anything is subject to ridicule here. Well you can't just put something out there and say..."oh it's only a discussion.." That's Bastardi like. In that case, I won't be shocked by two EF-2 tornadoes in Moosup CT this summer. Hey, it's only a discussion!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 Well you can't just put something out there and say..."oh it's only a discussion.." That's Bastardi like. In that case, I won't be shocked by two EF-2 tornadoes in Moosup CT this summer. Hey, it's only a discussion!!!!its a frigging blog, he has every right to write what gets wants. Not a forecast. I see nothing wrong with him expressing an opinion, big difference of saying something happening that has never happened and saying that the probabilities are higher than usual for hurricanes to run the coast this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 its a frigging blog, he has every right to write what gets wants. Not a forecast. I see nothing wrong with him expressing an opinion, big difference of saying something happening that has never happened and saying that the probabilities are higher than usual for hurricanes to run the coast this year. Anybody can say whatever they want, but as a professional in the field...I would like to see more science as to the reason why we will have 1-2 significant hurricane hits instead of comparing records from Kansas City or Colorado. Of course weenies will stick up for those kinds of posts because they love it. I like Tim...much more reasonable then his idiot sidekick Noyes...but that blog just took me by surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 Well it could always happen, but the reasoning behind it is peculiar to say the least. Saying we could get hit with two tropical systems is more realistic than two significant hurricane hits. That's a very bold statement.Yeah exactly. I'm pretty on average New England gets a tropical storm of some degree at least once every 3 years, so that's a pretty reasonable call to make, but sig hurricanes (in the plural) is essentially going balls to the wall around here lol. It definitely has me curious, I hope he writes more of his thoughts behind it. I mean he's not bastardi so I really doubt he's just throwing it out there for the hell of it. And Ginxy yeah you're right too, no reason he shouldn't be allowed to share what he thinks, I think we're all just wishing for more info on why he thinks that, it's something we all crave here lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 he said he would not be surprised, not exactly a forecast, he is discussioning similaritiesbetween years past. I think there's a lot of people who are reading this article the wrong way. Just like here discussion is not a forecast. Of course anyone who discusses anything is subject to ridicule here. seems like u are right about the ridicule part. But mets hold other mets to higher standards and i think because the reasonings for his analogs seem to be generous "loose" i think some take issue and i understand that. As far as the dates go, hes just using new eng hur climo so no one should get hung up on that. I was wondering if the central trough and big bermuda high pattern persists or reasserts itself a cpl more times if bermuda to atlantic canada faces above normal chances?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 Yeah exactly. I'm pretty on average New England gets a tropical storm of some degree at least once every 3 years, so that's a pretty reasonable call to make, but sig hurricanes (in the plural) is essentially going balls to the wall around here lol. It definitely has me curious, I hope he writes more of his thoughts behind it. I mean he's not bastardi so I really doubt he's just throwing it out there for the hell of it. We are mirroring the busy period of hurricanes like the 50s and 60s...but you can't just compare patterns and say..."yep this is the year.." For us to get hit by a hurricane, not only do you need the right pattern...but it has to be the right location and the right strength of these anomalies...there is a reason we have gone 22 years without a hurricane hitting the SNE coast. It's virtually a fluke that we get one since EVERYTHING has to be at the right place at the right time. Getting two systems to hit in a month is pretty much bad luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 We are mirroring the busy period of hurricanes like the 50s and 60s...but you can't just compare patterns and say..."yep this is the year.." For us to get hit by a hurricane, not only do you need the right pattern...but it has to be the right location and the right strength of these anomalies...there is a reason we have gone 22 years without a hurricane hitting the SNE coast. It's virtually a fluke that we get one since EVERYTHING has to be at the right place at the right time. Getting two systems to hit in a month is pretty much bad luck. Yeah it's such a delicate series of factors that need to line up just right here, which of course makes it all the more awesome when it works out lol. Mirroring the busy period is a step on that check list, and in terms of hurricane season we're still quite early. As we get towards the real peak maybe we can start checking more factors off that list, maybe not. Until then though, all we can really do is watch how the pieces of the atmospheric puzzle come together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 He said "impact". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 Scooter > weenies? Always has to throw digs out. Tim layed out thoughts without throwing caution flags everywhere, some have balls some don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 Scooter > weenies? Always has to throw digs out. Tim layed out thoughts without throwing caution flags everywhere, some have balls some don't. Balls don't always equal common sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 And where did I say I was greater than weenies? Weenies is the term for weather enthusiasts. Face it, weenies love stuff like that...look at all the people who follow and pay for Bastardi stuff. He feeds the masses when he blabs about cold and snow...and/or hurricanes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 He said "impact". lol...well he also said this: My forecast for New England this year is we get 1-2 significant hurricane hits. It matches the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 colorful in here today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 he should have spelled out his reasoning better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 Timmy's gone down the Twitter drain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 And I get accused of hype. Lol @SurfSkiWxMan: Tim Kelley: "we should not be surprised if two hurricanes impact New England between August 18 and September 21" http://t.co/TKLV2UAisV No more surprising than stating: "we should not be surprised if two blizzards impact New England between January 18 and February 21" To which has a better chance of verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 Timmy's gone down the Twitter drain. sometimes i think he's bored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 lol...well he also said this: My forecast for New England this year is we get 1-2 significant hurricane hits. It matches the pattern. Ur right so its more than just a disco, tim is buying a ticket Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 sometimes i think he's bored. Gotta keep your Twitter followers interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 Gotta keep your Twitter followers interested. i've just noticed that sometimes he makes pretty bold calls that, to me at least, don't make too much sense...but he's not pompous or arrogant about stuff so they go rather unnoticed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 gfdl lands chantal in the sc/nc border pretty good jump north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 gfdl lands chantal in the sc/nc border pretty good jump north how strong? TS? Hurricane? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2013070912-chantal03l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation how strong? TS? Hurricane? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.