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Tropical Disco 2013 SNE

Damage In Tolland

By Damage In Tolland,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER
THE EASTERN ATLC HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITHIN THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS AND HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT WITHIN
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

 

 

Hello - some obs:

 

Low SAL in its immediate vicinity and ahead of its current trajectory; large plume of SAL lurks N, however, so not much wiggle room

 

Despite low SAL, dry air does encircle the Invest envelope. This can be overcome by rigorous internal processes associate with quasi-coupled ocean/air consistent with TS modeling. 

 

Shear is low.  There are easterlies in the mid and upper levels in the region of the Invest, however, the Invests movement along with those vectors is making for a bit of SRS favorable environment, and low relative shear.  

 

Centroid blob of convection is nearly collocated with the perceived axis of rotation associated with at least the mid levels.  According to http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html  ...they do not have a floater yet focused on Invest 95, so it is harder to make a more discrete analysis.  

 

I do not believe the Atlantic is as conducive to early curving seaward, as the scenario of abundant subtropical ridging currently is ubiquitous around the Basin.  There is a weakness of sort at around 50W, but Invest 95 is too far S [most likely] to be picked up by it.  Moreover, most middle and extended guidance suggest that only after a brief and partial dismantling, the Bermuda ridge might restrengthen.   It could turn out precarious if a TC were to mature as it neared 70W, so long as there is a block N, and notable weakness in the geopotential medium along 80 W.  Those 2 circumstances are A and B in the list of getting a threat all the way across. Lots of time. 

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SlantStickers Anonymous

SlantStickers Anonymous

Posted
Posted

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH

1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER

THE EASTERN ATLC HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITHIN THE LAST

COUPLE OF HOURS AND HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT WITHIN

THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Hello - some obs:

Low SAL in its immediate vicinity and ahead of its current trajectory; large plume of SAL lurks N, however, so not much wiggle room

Despite low SAL, dry air does encircle the Invest envelope. This can be overcome by rigorous internal processes associate with quasi-coupled ocean/air consistent with TS modeling.

Shear is low. There are easterlies in the mid and upper levels in the region of the Invest, however, the Invests movement along with those vectors is making for a bit of SRS favorable environment, and low relative shear.

Centroid blob of convection is nearly collocated with the perceived axis of rotation associated with at least the mid levels. According to http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html ...they do not have a floater yet focused on Invest 95, so it is harder to make a more discrete analysis.

I do not believe the Atlantic is as conducive to early curving seaward, as the scenario of abundant subtropical ridging currently is ubiquitous around the Basin. There is a weakness of sort at around 50W, but Invest 95 is too far S [most likely] to be picked up by it. Moreover, most middle and extended guidance suggest that only after a brief and partial dismantling, the Bermuda ridge might restrengthen. It could turn out precarious if a TC were to mature as it neared 70W, so long as there is a block N, and notable weakness in the geopotential medium along 80 W. Those 2 circumstances are A and B in the list of getting a threat all the way across. Lots of time.

Yeah good thoughts, I was interested as soon as it started development, especially given its location. You know better than I do how precarious it is with TC's, but its got potential to be pretty interesting, particularly for an early July system.

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N. OF PIKE

N. OF PIKE

Posted
Posted

Sometimes i wonder what the nhc is talking about. 8pm disco says no evidence of a llc. Well then what does the windsat pass show from a tad earlier. (If i was on laptop) i would link the scan. But it appears to me to have at least some very clear evidence of a llc

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013
1100 PM EDT SUN JUL 07 2013

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THIS
AFTERNOON. A RECENT ASCAT PASS INDICATED THAT THE CIRCULATION HAD
BECOME BETTER DEFINED SINCE THIS MORNING....WITH SEVERAL
UNCONTAMINATED 35-KT WIND VECTORS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION. BASED ON THE ASCAT AND AFOREMENTIONED SATELLITE
DATA...THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/23. A STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO STEER CHANTAL ON A
WESTWARD AND THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH LITTLE DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. A SECOND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SHOULD KEEP CHANTAL ON THE SAME HEADING
UNTIL A WEAKNESS BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA LATE
IN THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT...THE TRACK OF CHANTAL SHOULD BEND MORE
NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN POSSIBLY NORTHWARD AND DECELERATE BY DAYS 4
AND 5. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO
THROUGH 48 TO 72 HOURS BUT THEN BEGINS TO DIVERGE AFTER THAT TIME.
THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD ALLOW CHANTAL TO INTENSIFY SOME DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE POSSIBILITY OF LAND INTERACTION WITH HISPANIOLA AND CUBA IN
ABOUT 72-96 HOURS COMPLICATES THE INTENSITY FORECAST BUT IS LIKELY
TO RESULT IN WEAKENING...ESPECIALLY SINCE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO AFFECT CHANTAL BY THAT TIME. THIS
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW AND LAND INTERACTION COULD EVEN CAUSE
CHANTAL TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW OR DISSIPATE LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM
GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 9.8N 47.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 10.8N 50.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 12.1N 55.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 13.9N 60.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 15.6N 65.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 18.4N 73.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 22.0N 77.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 13/0000Z 25.0N 78.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN

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Snow Bow

Snow Bow

Posted
Posted

There's a difference in hyping something and putting work into something to explain one's reasoning behind it. Maybe the wording could have had a little less hype in the tweet, like east coast hurricane ideas for 2013.

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