Damage In Tolland Posted October 2, 2013 Author Share Posted October 2, 2013 I think we're talking about different storms The storm that's currently in the Caribbean is well west on the Euro and never really develops (it fully dies in the Appalachian) it does however show a storm in the later panels that approaches the SE.Well that's where the confusion cane from then. It seems if that one from the SE comes north it has a chance of being at the least a strong TS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 Well that's where the confusion cane from then. It seems if that one from the SE comes north it has a chance of being at the least a strong TS Fruedian slip ? Keep in mind folks, should 97L develop and get strong enough prior to being engulfed in SW shear a couple/few days from now, it will bear a presence in the initializations of those global models more proficiently, and they'll like have different depictions when/if that takes place. Currently the system appears very near enough organization to initiate advisories, when observing high resolution satellite loops. As said it has very good upper level anticyclonic outflow. It has a cyclonic banded appearance on late day imagery, and parcels of very cold cloud top convection erupting near the perceived axis of rotation. Recon was supposed to investigate this disturbance this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 recon has been out there for almost 7 hours and still flying Fruedian slip ? Keep in mind folks, should 97L develop and get strong enough prior to being engulfed in SW shear a couple/few days from now, it will bear a presence in the initializations of those global models more proficiently, and they'll like have different depictions when/if that takes place. Currently the system appears very near enough organization to initiate advisories, when observing high resolution satellite loops. As said it has very good upper level anticyclonic outflow. It has a cyclonic banded appearance on late day imagery, and parcels of very cold cloud top convection erupting near the perceived axis of rotation.Recon was supposed to investigate this disturbance this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 recon has been out there for almost 7 hours and still flying Yeah wonder what's up. Are they just not finding anything, or -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 Oh, I bet ... Due to the Federal government shutdown,NOAA.gov and most associated web sitesare unavailable.Only web sites necessary to protect livesand property will be maintained.See Weather.gov for critical weatherinformation or contact USA.gov for moreinformation about the shutdown.NOAA Federal Employees: For access to theNotice to Federal Employees About UnemploymentInsurance (SF-8), please Click Here. I wonder if the recon reports have come in, but we just aren't getting to see them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 So the Euro is not impressed with the system in the gulf but NAM and hurricane models develop it to a strong TS or minimal hurricane before landfall in far western FL.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 So the Euro is not impressed with the system in the gulf but NAM and hurricane models develop it to a strong TS or minimal hurricane before landfall in far western FL....The NAM doesn't do anything with it. If you look at the system now it's appearance gives a little more credence to the GFS than the Euro which is important to how it ultimately affects our region. The GFS also shows a decent gradient between the storm and ridge to the east, maybe we get some swells to spice up our lives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 they did come in and you can see them Oh, I bet ... Due to the Federal government shutdown,NOAA.gov and most associated web sitesare unavailable.Only web sites necessary to protect livesand property will be maintained.See Weather.gov for critical weatherinformation or contact USA.gov for moreinformation about the shutdown.NOAA Federal Employees: For access to theNotice to Federal Employees About UnemploymentInsurance (SF-8), please Click Here. I wonder if the recon reports have come in, but we just aren't getting to see them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 The NAM doesn't do anything with it. If you look at the system now it's appearance gives a little more credence to the GFS than the Euro which is important to how it ultimately affects our region. The GFS also shows a decent gradient between the storm and ridge to the east, maybe we get some swells to spice up our lives. The NAM? seriously..? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 The NAM? seriously..?Lol, look at the post I was replying to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Hello Karen 1. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATESTHAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OFMEXICO HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AND IS PRODUCING WINDS OF UP TO60 MPH IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A SPECIALADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR...AND HURRICANE ANDTROPICAL STORM WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERNGULF COAST. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OFBECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGHCHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURINGTHE NEXT 5 DAYS AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Should be an interesting storm, does the shear in the Northern Gulf rip it up or does it provide an outflow channel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 i'd take the under on this one. think it struggles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 i'd take the under on this one. think it struggles.pretty safe bet this season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 pretty safe bet this season haha...true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Looks pretty ragged right at the moment. The convection has weakened pretty dramatically, and the center of circulation is partially if not totally exposed. There may already be some layer that has shear that is not presented in the overlays. They only do low, mid and upper, but there could be other layers in there that are tilting the convection off the center. whatever the cause, and regardless of the optimism for strengthening during morning, I don't see how that is going to happen without convection erupting near the core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Stick a fork in Karen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 The weenie coastal low is on the GFS, begins as a tropical system east of the Bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 12z gfs still drops a few inches of needed rain on SNE.. I hope we can get some reain out of this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 12z Canadian rapidly develops a TC around the outer Bahamas, D5 and rips it NW toward the EC. Maybe a Bobber - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 12z Canadian rapidly develops a TC around the outer Bahamas, D5 and rips it NW toward the EC. Maybe a Bobber - hard right to sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 hard right to sea Not that it is right to begin with ... obviously it most like is not, but it is hard to see how that could happen given the preceding deep layer circulation in the west and NW Atlantic per the preceding panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBudMan Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 needs a @damagingtimes post. Hell that Twitter account hasn't had anything good to post about for months !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 That is a crazy high sitting over Greenland there, would that have any play in such a situation? It seems unlikely to me that the high to the NW of the storm would shoot that far north that fast. GFS has some sort of closed low that moves up the coast and just misses the Cape at 276 h. Same storm, perhaps? Or is it that second little system in the middle atlantic on the CMC map? Of course, 276 hours out doesn't mean all that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 That is a crazy high sitting over Greenland there, would that have any play in such a situation? It seems unlikely to me that the high to the NW of the storm would shoot that far north that fast. GFS has some sort of closed low that moves up the coast and just misses the Cape at 276 h. Same storm, perhaps? Or is it that second little system in the middle atlantic on the CMC map? Of course, 276 hours out doesn't mean all that much. yes, the gfs is terrible and for laughs only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 gfs at hr96 is off the coast now lets see where it goes from here Huh? If it emerges back over the water off GA or SC like some modelling has it and moves north that water is awfully warm this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianLaverty Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 It eventually dissipates off the NC coast after staying there for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 5, 2013 Share Posted October 5, 2013 Tropical or non-tropical, what is this supposed to be on the 0z Euro? Looks like possible Remnants of Karen, after the last debacle i'm unwilling to get excited about this but it popped up quite unexpectedly. A similar low is also on the 06z GFS about a week later. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/f144.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 5, 2013 Share Posted October 5, 2013 There may yet be another Verdi type wave/TC to track. The Roundy probabilities hint at it. Also, the global -based models all have something there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 How on earth is the CMC seeing a hurricane crawling up the east coast with two verde storms right behind it? I'd imagine the verification odds of this run are abysmal, but the east coast runner has been there for the past couple of days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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