Chrisrotary12 Posted September 25, 2013 Share Posted September 25, 2013 Boring begets boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 25, 2013 Share Posted September 25, 2013 This just one of those odd 'damned if you do, damned if you don't', seasons. When the MJO wave passed through the phases conducive to Atlantic tropical activity, not much happened other than a flurry of weaker-like systems that couldn't last. Then, when the MJO passed(es) through non-conducive wave-spaces, it's been smashing the Basin into utter placidity. Nothing...nadda. Zippo. Zilch. It is interesting that some years it seems negative factors or not, the Basin just rages. This year is clearly not one of those years. Don't want to put the cart before the horses and assume it is in the books when we have all of October.... but, heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 25, 2013 Share Posted September 25, 2013 The 12z ECMWF initiates development in the northern Bahamas. Not sure if it's going to make any difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 25, 2013 Share Posted September 25, 2013 The 12z ECMWF initiates development in the northern Bahamas. Not sure if it's going to make any difference. Euro has trended east. It should have been a red flag from the start with the OP Euro was on the extreme western end of the ensemble guidance to start, now it's adjusting back east and coming into better agreement with the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 26, 2013 Share Posted September 26, 2013 12z GFS shifted west. Now gets moisture almost as far west and south as NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 26, 2013 Share Posted September 26, 2013 12z GFS shifted west. Now gets moisture almost as far west and south as NYC. but its not tropical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 26, 2013 Share Posted September 26, 2013 this is why i hate my subforum... wishing for rain showers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 26, 2013 Share Posted September 26, 2013 but its not tropical It looks sub-tropical, and the 00z GGEM (Yes I know it's the GGEM) had this really wrapping up and getting into the low 980's before landfall in Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 26, 2013 Share Posted September 26, 2013 Who cares if it's tropical or not. It's almost LOL worthy that we have a SNE tropical disco to begin with. There is absolutely nothing to speak of...it's not a big deal if that is posted here imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 26, 2013 Share Posted September 26, 2013 My stall call is almost close to verifying, just shift that ridge a bit northeastward. On the flip side nobody wants days of warm maritime showers. I think this could go STS at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 26, 2013 Share Posted September 26, 2013 My stall call is almost close to verifying, just shift that ridge a bit northeastward. On the flip side nobody wants days of warm maritime showers. I think this could go STS at some point. We still have four days to go and some important details for the models to work out. I don't think anyone would be shocked if this shifted back towards the coast. Either way the impacts look to be minimal. Just taking a look at the 12z GGEM it develops two lows. The main low in question stays well offshore but develops quite nicely. The second low forms near the Outer Banks and stalls out for a few days before dissipating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 26, 2013 Share Posted September 26, 2013 this is why i hate my subforum... wishing for rain showers Don't like it, don't look at it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 26, 2013 Share Posted September 26, 2013 Don't like it, don't look at it Usually we get a good severe season to keep us occupied up until hurricane season. That was a bust putting the OKC tornados asside. Then we usually have a good hurricane season to keep us occupied up until we can start to seriously talk about snow, that also failed. I think people just have nothing to talk about so yes even a 1010mb low off of New England gets a few people excited. I can't wait until we can start tracking snow storms again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 26, 2013 Share Posted September 26, 2013 What the hell good is a 1008 LP with maritime puke air . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 26, 2013 Share Posted September 26, 2013 What the hell good is a 1008 LP with maritime puke air . Its a weak POS that would only add to the already healthy water table here, And be more of a nuisance, Let it stay east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 26, 2013 Share Posted September 26, 2013 The Euro will be interesting. This weather is more interesting than the whole year in general and some areas of the region could use some rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted September 26, 2013 Share Posted September 26, 2013 12z GFS shifted west. Now gets moisture almost as far west and south as NYC. This would be exciting news in January... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 26, 2013 Share Posted September 26, 2013 Novie gets brushed on the euro 1008mb, meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 26, 2013 Share Posted September 26, 2013 This would be exciting news in January... Pants tent in Jan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 26, 2013 Share Posted September 26, 2013 A system that's not tropical, possibly passing 100 miles east of the benchmark. Meh. Courtesy Meteo Centre: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 26, 2013 Share Posted September 26, 2013 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 26, 2013 Share Posted September 26, 2013 .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...* DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND* DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RUN NEAR TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMALTHROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK* UNCERTAINTY RETURNS FOR TRACK OF COASTAL LOW PASSING EAST OF CAPECOD EARLY NEXT WEEKOVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY AND RUN TO RUNCONSISTENCY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OUT OF QUEBECAND NY STATE ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH DRYCONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.THE 12Z OP RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEGUN TO SIGNAL A MOREWESTWARD TRACK TO DEVELOPING LOW PRES AS IT MOVES ACROSS THEWESTERN ATLC WATERS AROUND THE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAYTIMEFRAME. WHILE THE SURFACE LOW IS TRENDING A BIT WEAKER THANPREVIOUS FORECASTS...IT APPEARS THAT EITHER A H5 NEGATIVE TILTTROUGH OR EVEN A CUTOFF LOW MAY DEVELOP WHICH COULD CAPTURE THELOW AND BRING IT CLOSER TO THE COAST. ALSO NOTED WESTWARD MOVEMENTON ABOUT HALF OF THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...SO DID LEND SOMECREDENCE TO THIS TRACK BACK TOWARD THE COAST. HAVE PUSHED WESTERNEDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD A BIT CLOSER...POSSIBLY EFFECTING CAPE CODAND THE ISLANDS. FOR NOW...LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BE MORE OF AMARINE IMPACT WITH INCREASING NE GUSTS AND BUILDING SEAS. FUTUREMODEL RUNS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR ANY FURTHERTRACKING BACK TOWARD THE COAST.WITH THE QUESTIONS ABOUT THE TRACK OF THE OCEAN LOW...AND THEREMOTE POSSIBILITY OF STALLING OFF THE COAST INTO THE MIDDLE OFNEXT WEEK...THERE IS LOWERED CONFIDENCE ON THE FORECAST BEYONDTUESDAY. FOR NOW...USED A BLEND OF THE WPC GUIDANCE AND THEPREVIOUS FORECAST FOR CONTINUITY AND KEPT A DRY FORECAST GOINGTHROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK WITH MILD TEMPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 I'm shocked the medium range models can't handle pinpoint forecasting a cut-off low outside of D5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 West trend continues on the GFS. Nearly makes landfall on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 Interest in this system will be horrendous untill something actually forms. Most interesting pattern i've seen in quite some time, too bad its not fully tropical. Also, intensity forecasts are not very good; one should not strongly focus attention to the barometric pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 West trend continues on the GFS. Nearly makes landfall on Monday. landfall is used in conjunction with a tropical system with an eye not a ten knot 1008 LP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 landfall is used in conjunction with a tropical system with an eye not a ten knot 1008 LP I'm thinking we get more than 10 knots out this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 I'm thinking we get more than 10 knots out this way. That's what it's like everyday there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 That's what it's like everyday there. Lol. True enough. This pattern has been hell. Good boating weather but boring. Hoping for at least 30-40kts in gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 Lol. True enough. This pattern has been hell. Good boating weather but boring. Hoping for at least 30-40kts in gusts. that might be tricky...even out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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