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Tropical Disco 2013 SNE

Damage In Tolland

By Damage In Tolland,
in New England

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IsentropicLift

IsentropicLift

Posted
Posted

alot closer then 12z but still weak

Yeah I think this run is going to end up similar to the Euro.

 

Edit: front arrives at the coast just in time to kick it out to sea. We really need this to develop off the Carolinas and come more northward instead of going all the way out to Bermuda and trying to retrograde west. If this trend on late development continues I think this is game, set, match.

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It's Always Sunny

It's Always Sunny

Posted
Posted

Like CTRain said before, warm pocket is now gone at 700mb which dismisses this as tropical. Was a long shot to begin with but the anticipation of something big happening is always fun. Nothing but a coastal storm at this point. Nor'easter for most on Monday as of right now although still a week out. Wind fields look rather meh as well. 

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It's Always Sunny

It's Always Sunny

Posted
Posted

I'll take anything in this horrific boring pattern.

I was telling Boris that today. He thought I was all gung-ho on a TS but I was just busting his chops, especially due to the fact of how lame this season has been. Once I looked at the 12Z Euro I dismissed any light of hope I had of this becoming something fun. 

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IsentropicLift

IsentropicLift

Posted
Posted

Wouldn't rule it out, but timing is off right now. It also loses a lot of moisture once it exits the Great Lakes.

OBX in todays AM discussion mentioned that the models may have trouble resolving the extratropical transition of the typhoon in the western Pacific which may have downstream affects and cautioned that the overall evolution of the pattern could change one way or another.

 

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER

VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...AS VARIOUS BITS OF ENERGY TRAVEL

OVER THE RIDGE AND MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. OTHER THAN MAYBE

SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY A SPRINKLE ON FRIDAY - THOUGH

CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO REFLECT IN THE FORECAST -

AS THESE SHORTWAVES PASS BY...IT SHOULD BE DRY WITH MINIMAL CLOUD

COVER THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY.

THERE APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT CONSENSUS TO HAVE A REASONABLE

EXPECTATION THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP SOME PLACE

AROUND 30N/70W - WITHIN +/- 5 DEGREES OR SO...IN RESPONSE TO THE

VARIOUS SHORTWAVE ENERGIES MOVING/ACTING UPON EACH OTHER AS THEY

STALL OUT NEAR THE BASE OF A TROUGH TO OUR EAST.

THE IMPACT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ON THE TRI-STATE WILL THEN

DEPEND ON THREE THINGS. 1ST - HOW QUICKLY THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE

THAT STARTS OUT TO ITS W AND N SLIDES TO ITS EAST...AS SPLIT FLOW

DEVELOPS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FASTER PROGRESSION OF THE BLOCKING

RIDGE WOULD LEAD TO A WEAKER STORM THAT MOVES NORTHEAST FAIRLY

QUICKLY - SIMILAR TO THE GFS. HOWEVER - THE GFS HAS A KNOWN BIAS OF

TOO QUICKLY MOVING OFFSHORE AND ERODING DEEP LAYERED RIDGES NEAR THE

EAST COAST...AND OFF WEAKENING AND MOVING OFFSHORE TOO QUICKLY ITS

ASSOCIATED DAMMING SURFACE HIGH. THE ECMWF IN GENERAL PERFORMS

BETTER IN HANDLING THESE TYPES OF RIDGES AND DAMMING HIGHS...SO

WOULD AT LEAST INITIALLY FAVOR A ECMWF LIKE TRACK/TIMING FOR THE

STORM.

THE 2ND ITEM IS THE STRENGTH/DEPTH OF THE CUTOFF LOW THAT DEVELOPS

OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE WEAKER SYSTEM WOULD TEND TO BE MOVED

ALONG BY THE MEAN FLOW...AND ALSO IMPACT THE MEAN FLOW LESS...THAN A

STRONGER SYSTEM. THE ECMWF DOES HAVE A TENDENCY TO OVER DO THE

STRENGTH OF THESE SYSTEMS...IN IS IN FACT QUITE A BIT - 10 HPA OR SO

- STRONGER THAN MOST OTHER MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS WITH THE

SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUTOFF LOW. THE GFS ON THE OTHER

HAND...COMPARES FAVORABLY WITH MOST OTHER MODELS AND ENSEMBLES WITH

THE STORMS STRENGTH.

THE 3RD THING THAT WILL INFLUENCE HOW MUCH...IF ANY THE COASTAL LOW

WILL INFLUENCE THE AREA IS ITS DEGREE OF INTERACTION WITH THE

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING RIDGE. THE

ECMWF HAS A STRONGER TROUGH THAN THE GFS AND SO HAS A QUICKER

PHASING BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS...VICE THE GFS WITH A SLIGHTLY

WEAKER TROUGH ACTING TO PUSH THE WEAKER GFS SYSTEM OUT A BIT MORE TO

SEA BEFORE EVENTUAL ABSORPTION OF THE WEAKER SYSTEM BY THE NORTHERN

STREAM TROUGH. GIVEN THE BIASES NOTED FOR ITEMS 1 AND 2 ABOVE...THIS

IS A TOSS UP.

THERE IS A WILD CARD AT PLAY HERE - THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OF

TYPHOON PABUK IN THE WEST PACIFIC. UNFORTUNATELY ITS EXACTS IMPACTS

ON HOW THINGS WILL PLAY OUT ARE NOT KNOWN AS THIS SORT OF THING IS

GENERALLY NOT WELL HANDLED BY THE MODELS.

FOR NOW...WILL RUN WITH A ECMWF/GFS BLEND FOR TRACK...BUT MORE

TOWARDS THE GFS FOR THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. BASED ON THIS WOULD

EXPECT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY TO BE DRY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF

SHOWERS ON SUNDAY...AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY. THINGS SHOULD

THEN DRY OUT FROM W TO E MONDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM EXITS TO THE E/NE

AND TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AS A RESULT. BASED ON GOING WITH THE

WEAKER SOLUTION OF THE GFS NO SIGNIFICANT WIND/COASTAL FLOODING

IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FROM THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE MAIN

THREAT BEING THE SWELLS FROM THE STORM LIKELY CREATING AN ENHANCED

RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES.

HOWEVER...WITH SUCH A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...AND THE

WILDCARD OF TYPHOON PABUK...IT IS LIKELY THAT THE FORECAST AND

POSSIBLY EVEN THE OVERALL SCENARIO WILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW

DAYS.

 

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IsentropicLift

IsentropicLift

Posted
Posted

wow...you read that...you'd think it was january with the straw grasping. 

I think the main thing is that we've seen such extreme model swings even inside 48 hours with the best models with some of the biggest events of the past few years, including the Boxing Day blizzard. I think OBX is just being extra careful. This is till a day 5+ forecast.

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It's Always Sunny

It's Always Sunny

Posted
Posted

I think the main thing is that we've seen such extreme model swings even inside 48 hours with the best models with some of the biggest events of the past few years, including the Boxing Day blizzard. I think OBX is just being extra careful. This is till a day 5+ forecast.

I'd say the same thing as that forecaster in regards to uncertainty. If you say, "oh it's gonna do this or that" this far out and it doesn't verify, that not only makes you look bad but also your forecast office.

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
Posted

I think the main thing is that we've seen such extreme model swings even inside 48 hours with the best models with some of the biggest events of the past few years, including the Boxing Day blizzard. I think OBX is just being extra careful. This is till a day 5+ forecast.

what's an extreme model swing? 

 

also...apples/oranges sept vs. DJF. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

I'd hedge east and mostly a whiff at this point. We don't have a huge favorable block so we're going to be relying on a lot of smaller nuances to try and keep this close to the coast unless the larger scale features make a major change on guidance in the next couple days.

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It's Always Sunny

It's Always Sunny

Posted
Posted

I don't see how Pabuk in the WEST PACIFIC is going to have any game-changing influence .. seems like a hyped "wildcard"

 

We're running out of straws to grasp with this one.

 

Even if the stars align, we aren't looking at anything exciting.

I think what he means is how models handle the extratropical transition, and how we can use that to apply to this coastal storm coming up. You're right though, this doesn't appear to be anything exciting.

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AvantHiatus

AvantHiatus

Posted
Posted

That is a pretty weak cold front coming down; if it keeps trending in that direction will ensure non-retrograde situation but also bring in the possibility of a stall. Right now timing of the features is very unfavorable on the models, this system may get a STS (Sub-tropical storm) designation eventually depending on how it develops.

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IsentropicLift

IsentropicLift

Posted
Posted

So it begins....another system to watch.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_atltropics_55.png

That's the system that the GGEM had a few runs ago. That setup looks better to me because development occurs further south and closer to the coast.

 

Unfortunatly there doesn't appear to be anything at that time to push it towards the coast.

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AvantHiatus

AvantHiatus

Posted
Posted

That's the system that the GGEM had a few runs ago. That setup looks better to me because development occurs further south and closer to the coast.

There is nothing to really drive this one towards the coast; looks more tropical than the prior system. Could turn into a southeast threat if the bermuda high builds in.

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IsentropicLift

IsentropicLift

Posted
Posted

There is nothing to really drive this one towards the coast; looks more tropical than the prior system. Could turn into a southeast threat if the bermuda high builds in.

The 9/24 00z GGEM run had a nice long wave trough approaching the coast at that hour. The GFS looks nothing like that. At least the steering pattern looks weak.

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