ineedsnow Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 still a miss but to a step in the right direction Hr 147 the gfs is backing the system towards cape cod. It's not a very strong system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 still a miss but to a step in the right direction Yeah shoots north towards Novia Scotia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 yawn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 I'd want to see winds at 850mb at least 90-100 knots to be even mildly impressed. That is a weak to moderate nor' easter essentially depicted on the Euro. Agreed. For the general reader: Euro is not a tropical system. It clearly cuts 500mb dynamics as transient ridge rolls over top, and those immediately charge a surface response that I also think might be over done on the D5 chart. Also, the CMC tries to seclude a warm air mass near the center and then plays around with the separate realms between baroclinic and barotropic physics -- sort of non-committal in hyberdizing the system. The CMC's known lustiness with TC is probably ...clouding it's judgement for lack of better pun. Usually, systems that originate N and then take on sub-tropical characteristics takes while. The CMC attempts that in about 6 hours. That's probably why it succeeds in stem-winding the core down to a purer TC look as it nears LI. Not sure I buy that ... we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Hr 147 the gfs is backing the system towards cape cod. It's not a very strong system Step in the right direction? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 you know in the back of his mind hes hoping it happens Jim Cantore @JimCantore1h Anybody buying the operational EURO right now? This is Sunday 00z. pic.twitter.com/LAb7A6sQV0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 I think the Euro has it as a warm core TC for a brief period before it transitions. Am I wrong on that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinWX Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Looks to me like there's a warm pocket at 850...I guess you could argue occlusion since the low is mature and has been spinning off NC/VA for a while...per 00z EC anyway. Looks hybrid to me though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 I think the Euro has it as a warm core TC for a brief period before it transitions. Am I wrong on that?No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Looks to me like there's a warm pocket at 850...I guess you could argue occlusion since the low is mature and has been spinning off NC/VA for a while...per 00z EC anyway. Looks hybrid to me though Seclusion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 24, 2013 Author Share Posted September 24, 2013 Cane? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 12z GGEM coming in with a retrograde into New England day 6 Edit: That is as far West as it makes it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Cane? Nope. TC at best, if anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Been awhile since the region has experienced a late September tropical system. If an 1869 system can have tropical characteristics in early October (Saxby Gale), then I suppose anything is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Been awhile since the region has experienced a late September tropical system. If an 1869 system can have tropical characteristics in early October (Saxby Gale), then I suppose anything is possible. How about Sandy at the end of October? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 How about Sandy at the end of October? Yep, there are some similarities between the synoptic setups. Having been around for the Sandy landfall, it was not quite tropical as one might expect. More like a hurricane embedded inside a cold-core circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Yep, there are some similarities between the synoptic setups. Having been around for the Sandy landfall, it was not quite tropical as one might expect. More like a hurricane embedded inside a cold-core circulation. Yeah I'm not arguing Sandy was purely tropical, just that it doesn't seem terribly out of the ordinary for something with tropical characteristics to be in play this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 meh but I guess we still have to watch http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2013092412&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 NOGAPS is more hopeful, it lingers system off the SE coast over gulf stream and parallels coast by end of run. Not much intensity but that won't be accurately forecasted 5+ days in advance anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 euro threw 120 looks good again hope its one of those cases once in catches on to something it stays with the same idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Euro is nothing tropical, just a low with maybe some subtropical characteristics. I see no signs of anything warm core at 850 and esp 700mb where it counts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Euro is nothing tropical, just a low with maybe some subtropical characteristics. I see no signs of anything warm core at 850 and esp 700mb where it counts. Yeah 12z isn't at all... the 00z did develop a mini warm pocket at 700mb while over the Gulf Stream but all I see is a weakening occlusion/cut-off that sort of meanders near SNE. Intriguing but that's just about it. Pretty lame looking storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 warm core or not it looks like it would be a good rain maker Euro is nothing tropical, just a low with maybe some subtropical characteristics. I see no signs of anything warm core at 850 and esp 700mb where it counts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 my guess is euro would be hybrid and classified as sub-tropical by NHC. verbatim, that's a bit more interesting than this morning's run as the system intensifies a bit more. would probably be a decent coastal relative to the calendar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 warm core or not it looks like it would be a good rain maker I don't think so actually... all the advective process seem to shut down post-occlusion and you just get a period of crappy wx Sunday night and Monday. It develops a pocket of higher 1000-500mb thickness over the center of the cyclone so it would probably be subtropical/hybrid in nature. Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 12z Euro QPF? Flooding rains or just run of the mill? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 I don't think so actually... all the advective process seem to shut down post-occlusion and you just get a period of crappy wx Sunday night and Monday. It develops a pocket of higher 1000-500mb thickness over the center of the cyclone so it would probably be subtropical/hybrid in nature. Meh. Sign me up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 my guess is euro would be hybrid and classified as sub-tropical by NHC. verbatim, that's a bit more interesting than this morning's run as the system intensifies a bit more. would probably be a decent coastal relative to the calendar. It's fun to watch how it develops it... the s/w over Iowa is the one that winds up blossoming. Seems like it would reach peak strength offshore before filling. Seems like max amplitude is when the cut-off low forms on the western side of developing omega block. Weird setup but not impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 It's fun to watch how it develops it... the s/w over Iowa is the one that winds up blossoming. Seems like it would reach peak strength offshore before filling. Seems like max amplitude is when the cut-off low forms on the western side of developing omega block. Weird setup but not impossible. yeah you end up with a mix of processes going on this time of year. if it were a couple of weeks later in the season, it would probably be a worse set-up as there'd likely be higher ambient pressures over NE and slightly stronger energy coming across the country...but essentially the same water temps....so you'd end up with a nastier hybrid i think. this is probably gales from Hatteras to ACK or whatnot...but that's about all...as currently modeled at least. i feel like It would have to sit and stew longer to the south as a fully tropical entity for it to be more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 yeah you end up with a mix of processes going on this time of year. if it were a couple of weeks later in the season, it would probably be a worse set-up as there'd likely be higher ambient pressures over NE and slightly stronger energy coming across the country...but essentially the same water temps....so you'd end up with a nastier hybrid i think. this is probably gales from Hatteras to ACK or whatnot...but that's about all...as currently modeled at least. i feel like It would have to sit and stew longer to the south as a fully tropical entity for it to be more interesting. NB as you wanted though, obviously not modeled 100 % correct and certainly interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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