Tropopause_Fold Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Well we were talking about the CMC as modeled with high winds and heavy rains not the Euro ah. well the cmc blows up everything, always. so that has to be taken with a huge grain of salt. we'l see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 24, 2013 Author Share Posted September 24, 2013 Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 I might think these runs are more fluky than anything but with the NAO dipping to -2 in the coming days, those runs are hard to discount. The Euro, I noticed, is near perfection compared to the other models when it knows a large weather event is coming. Well this would probably be more of a medium sized event but it's still intriguing. Any by coastal threat is worrisome especially for those who have dealt with Sandy directly, so we shall see if the Euro or CMC will change their tune next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Well that's great at 850mb. Euro briefly has 40kt srfc winds it appears on the backside of it, but nothing out of the ordinary. The ensembles have it too, but further east. Just doesn't look like anything special at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Well that's great at 850mb. Euro briefly has 40kt srfc winds it appears on the backside of it, but nothing out of the ordinary. The ensembles have it too, but further east. Just doesn't look like anything special at the moment. I'd want to see winds at 850mb at least 90-100 knots to be even mildly impressed. That is a weak to moderate nor' easter essentially depicted on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Kind of funny that the storm that everyone is talking about is now over..................Kansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 I'd want to see winds at 850mb at least 90-100 knots to be even mildly impressed. That is a weak to moderate nor' easter essentially depicted on the Euro. Yeah I don't see anything terribly exciting at the moment. Just enough for Ginx and Pickles to have a pants tent about tracking swells in srn RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Kind of funny that the storm that everyone is talking about is now over..................Kansas. It actually originates from FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Even JB has tossed in the towel...that should tell us something Lol the JB theorem... Never fails. He hypes, it dies. He downplays, models try and make it interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Kind of funny that the storm that everyone is talking about is now over..................Kansas. It actually originates from FL. I think Chris is referring to the energy over KS is what is going to move east and spark this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 The GFS tends to suppress that energy once it hits the Carolinas while the Euro tends to ramp it due to the locational difference of the jet streaks associated with the ridge over Canada. Euro has it further N which allows coastal development whereas the GFS keeps the jet streak further S which appears to crush anything that wants to form. Next GFS run should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 first time in awhile ive actually been excited for the 12z runs to come out .. Would be good to have a nice storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Yeah I don't see anything terribly exciting at the moment. Just enough for Ginx and Pickles to have a pants tent about tracking swells in srn RI.I got more of a tent understanding this is the first coastal of the fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 I got more of a tent understanding this is the first coastal of the fall. Looks more like that than anything "Tropical" in nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 A low end noreaster? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Looks more like that than anything "Tropical" in nature.CMC is tropical though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 To me the setup on the day ten GGEM is actually more Intriguing. I would think this gets sucked towards the coast verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 meh still like this better http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=fr&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=180&fixhh=1&hh=168 To me the setup on the day ten GGEM is actually more Intriguing. I would think this gets sucked towards the coast verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 CMC is tropical though The GGEM has some bizarre model physics though that make it do funky things like this. The Euro looked like a hybrid/subtropical storm to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Look at the support from the 06z GEFS for a strong low near the northeast coast late next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Look at the support from the 06z GEFS for a strong low near the northeast coast late next weekend. Are you serious? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Are you serious? I'm learning, can you please explain to me what is so terrible about that graphic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 To me the setup on the day ten GGEM is actually more Intriguing. I would think this gets sucked towards the coast verbatim. I had to actually check the date on this post. This certainly doesn't have the makings for anything too extravagant, but the low and position of the frontal system over Ontario/Midwest is strikingly similar to late Oct 2012. What are the chances about 11 months later we get such a similar set up? Pretty cool stuff! However, as many others have pointed out, the strength of this cyclone is meagre and the timing is off (as of now) for anything more than a coastal brush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 I'm learning, can you please explain to me what is so terrible about that graphic?look at the bottom, that's for a 1024 mb high pressure. Unless you have a sub 900 mb low which causes a HUGE area of a sub 984 mb contour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 look at the bottom, that's for a 1024 mb high pressure. I thought it was for a 984 mb low. My bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 The GGEM has some bizarre model physics though that make it do funky things like this. The Euro looked like a hybrid/subtropical storm to me.Euro does have a warm core but yea looks frontal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 I'm learning, can you please explain to me what is so terrible about that graphic? If you aren't sure you should glance at the ens mean. But the size and shape of the supposed 984 contour should also have been a clue. That's not something you're going to see ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 If you aren't sure you should glance at the ens mean. But the size and shape of the supposed 984 contour should also have been a clue. That's not something you're going to see ever. If that was the 984mb contour, we'd be talking about one of the strongest autumn nor' easters we've seen. The shape gives it away though as you mentioned...thats not a low pressure type shape. The CAD to the east of the Apps is clear high pressure signature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 If that was the 984mb contour, we'd be talking about one of the strongest autumn nor' easters we've seen. The shape gives it away though as you mentioned...thats not a low pressure type shape. The CAD to the east of the Apps is clear high pressure signature. Yeah, I do know better than that. I just took a quick glance and didn't think it all the way through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Hr 147 the gfs is backing the system towards cape cod. It's not a very strong system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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