Guest Imperator Posted September 17, 2013 Share Posted September 17, 2013 theres always one model that is kind of interesting http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2013091712&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation The Canadian? Really? It has a horrible reputation Re: Tropical Systems. Posting a CMC output, especially beyond a few days is the weather equivalent of posting spam. I mean, even NWS only factors 5% of its solution into their longer range forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 17, 2013 Share Posted September 17, 2013 just posting to keep the thread going really and have something to talk about i know its pretty much useless The Canadian? Really? It has a horrible reputation Re: Tropical Systems. Posting a CMC output, especially beyond a few days is the weather equivalent of posting spam. I mean, even NWS only factors 5% of its solution into their longer range forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted September 17, 2013 Share Posted September 17, 2013 just posting to keep the thread going really and have something to talk about i know its pretty much useless Let's talk about snow then Start a thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted September 17, 2013 Share Posted September 17, 2013 Let's talk about snow then Start a thread. You must be new here - every thread is about snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted September 17, 2013 Share Posted September 17, 2013 The Canadian? Really? It has a horrible reputation Re: Tropical Systems. Posting a CMC output, especially beyond a few days is the weather equivalent of posting spam. I mean, even NWS only factors 5% of its solution into their longer range forecasts. IMHO, the Canadian is great for picking up on areas of potential development, but not so great for track. Looks dry and seasonable for the next week, save Sunday-Monday. Seems like these big cold fronts are really well timed with the tropical systems, they keep getting punted into the atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 17, 2013 Share Posted September 17, 2013 IMHO, the Canadian is great for picking up on areas of potential development, but not so great for track. Looks dry and seasonable for the next week, save Sunday-Monday. Seems like these big cold fronts are really well timed with the tropical systems, they keep getting punted into the atlantic. Climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 17, 2013 Share Posted September 17, 2013 Climo The low that the GFS develops is not Invest 95L, will take a while to sort this one out and much will depend on the intensity of the tropical cyclone. Euro has it missing the cold front and landfalling on the gulf coast as a weak tropical storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 The low that the GFS develops is not Invest 95L, will take a while to sort this one out and much will depend on the intensity of the tropical cyclone. Euro has it missing the cold front and landfalling on the gulf coast as a weak tropical storm. 12Z 15 km FIM-9 has 95L get caught up in the front, and produce a decent hybrid gale center moving up the East Coast. 12Z Euro doesn't have a solution like this, 0Z Euro did... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 20, 2013 Share Posted September 20, 2013 The Canadian? Really? It has a horrible reputation Re: Tropical Systems. Posting a CMC output, especially beyond a few days is the weather equivalent of posting spam. I mean, even NWS only factors 5% of its solution into their longer range forecasts. Is this documented somewhere, or are we strictly speaking tropical? I happen to think it does a very good job on cloud cover. I also believe it was the first model to sniff out Sandy (although subsequently lost the storm for a few runs). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted September 20, 2013 Share Posted September 20, 2013 Super Typhoon Usagi is a beast... incredible core and the tight eye almost reminds me of Wilma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 21, 2013 Share Posted September 21, 2013 There is a crazy hybrid tropical system on the 0z Euro, the pressure gradient is too deep to actually read it on the map i'm using. Thankfully it goes way out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted September 21, 2013 Share Posted September 21, 2013 There is a crazy hybrid tropical system on the 0z Euro, the pressure gradient is too deep to actually read it on the map i'm using. Thankfully it goes way out to sea. Thankfully!? Lol how many hours out was it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 21, 2013 Share Posted September 21, 2013 Thankfully!? Lol how many hours out was it? Here it is in all its glory. This is not something you want in your backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted September 21, 2013 Share Posted September 21, 2013 Here it is in all its glory. This is not something you want in your backyard. Ah, thank you! And yeah doesn't look like anybody around here needs to worry about any real storms for the time being... I like the sound of an October hybrid but that's really just a shot in the dark. On a more interesting note, if we finish this season without a major landfall, the streak continues into record territory I believe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted September 22, 2013 Share Posted September 22, 2013 Doesn't look so great on the Euro today, but what a beast on the CMC. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2013092200&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation Yeah, yeah, I know, CMC isn't the best. But seriously, if that happens to verify, the east-facing shores are gonna get pounded. It sits there for almost 2 days, with no sign of acceleration! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 22, 2013 Share Posted September 22, 2013 To see this on any given September 22 of any given year is pretty impressive... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted September 22, 2013 Share Posted September 22, 2013 Doesn't look so great on the Euro today, but what a beast on the CMC. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2013092200&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation Yeah, yeah, I know, CMC isn't the best. But seriously, if that happens to verify, the east-facing shores are gonna get pounded. It sits there for almost 2 days, with no sign of acceleration! It won't verify. I never put much stock in the CMC, although it isn't bad to compare and look at when an event is within 48 hours. I also like looking at it when GFS and Euro predict something big far in advance to see if it picks up on it as well, kind of what originally happened here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted September 22, 2013 Share Posted September 22, 2013 It won't verify. I never put much stock in the CMC, although it isn't bad to compare and look at when an event is within 48 hours. I also like looking at it when GFS and Euro predict something big far in advance to see if it picks up on it as well, kind of what originally happened here. Probably true. Interesting that the big models lost it in a day. Can't believe how awful the MJO has been so far this year, though. http://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/phase.Last90days.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 22, 2013 Share Posted September 22, 2013 12z Euro is interesting but remains out to sea. Would be nice if a met commented on the setup; looks like some minor adjustments would be needed for a Cape Cod indirect impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted September 22, 2013 Share Posted September 22, 2013 12z Euro is interesting but remains out to sea. Would be nice if a met commented on the setup; looks like some minor adjustments would be needed for a Cape Cod indirect impact. For one, I'd like to see the Bermuda High retrograde further west to provide a block sufficient enough to keep the storm closer to the East Coast. It's currently too far east which is what keeps it out to sea for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted September 22, 2013 Share Posted September 22, 2013 12z Euro also interestingly brings a low-latitude CV wave out towards the islands by D10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 23, 2013 Share Posted September 23, 2013 12z cmc and the 12z euro look interesting today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 23, 2013 Share Posted September 23, 2013 12z cmc and the 12z euro look interesting today here today, gone tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted September 23, 2013 Share Posted September 23, 2013 here today, gone tomorrow SNE coastline? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 23, 2013 Share Posted September 23, 2013 SNE coastline? GGEM almost wants to pully a Sandy repeat. Brings a TC northward from Cuba over the Bahamas at the same time that a big negative tilted trough is over the east coast. Capture anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted September 23, 2013 Share Posted September 23, 2013 GGEM almost wants to pully a Sandy repeat. Brings a TC northward from Cuba over the Bahamas at the same time that a big negative tilted trough is over the east coast. Capture anyone? I see what you're talking about but the trough arrives too late to steer it towards the coast. Similar type of set up but timing is still way off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 23, 2013 Share Posted September 23, 2013 I see what you're talking about but the trough arrives too late to steer it towards the coast. Similar type of set up but timing is still way off.I get that it's way off but it's also the Canadian and a 7 plus day forecast. Just pointing out the setup fwiw. CFS indicates we could see some extended blocking into October with a negative NAO so if we can get it a TC in the Bahamas in the next 2-3 weeks we stand a remote chance of timing something well enough to bring it close to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted September 23, 2013 Share Posted September 23, 2013 I get that it's way off but it's also the Canadian and a 7 plus day forecast. Just pointing out the setup fwiw. CFS indicates we could see some extended blocking into October with a negative NAO so if we can get it a TC in the Bahamas in the next 2-3 weeks we stand a remote chance of timing something well enough to bring it close to the coast. That'd be fine by me. The image below is the only one I could find to indicate a -NAO per CFS. What site are you looking at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 23, 2013 Share Posted September 23, 2013 That'd be fine by me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 23, 2013 Share Posted September 23, 2013 It's always sunny look at the weeklies 500 level weeks 2-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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