free_man Posted September 15, 2013 Share Posted September 15, 2013 Though it has very low probability for success at this time range, that, in its self, is a monster hybrid and potential disaster for the upper MA and New England regions. The extrapolation from a scenario of a Florida emerging TC that is getting baroclinic assist as it crawls N over the Gulf Stream, and a big high exiting New England, while 500mb ridge forces all NW would be bad. Yeah, that is what I was thinking. Not uncommon to see TC or hybrid/frontal structure systems cut-off in that area. A day or two over untouched GS currents and favorable U winds, not a bad setup..but obviously a long shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted September 16, 2013 Share Posted September 16, 2013 Are there any analogs to this year that could hint at what might happen? I know Tim Kelley brought forth a ton of evidence when he made his two hurricane prediction, but has this year continued its similarity to 1938? I've always found persistence forecasting and statistical forecasting to be useful, especially with long term forecasting. Doesn't work for everything, but it is good to look at all the angles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted September 16, 2013 Share Posted September 16, 2013 Are there any analogs to this year that could hint at what might happen? I know Tim Kelley brought forth a ton of evidence when he made his two hurricane prediction, but has this year continued its similarity to 1938? I've always found persistence forecasting and statistical forecasting to be useful, especially with long term forecasting. Doesn't work for everything, but it is good to look at all the angles. 1938 is not really on the table, since it was a Cape Verde hurricane and the majority of the tropical ATL has been quite hostile for development. However, Hazel - Bob - Carol - Hurr #6 1869 - any of those types of setups aren't entirely impossible through Oct., I suppose. doubtful. Tim Kelley and the VAST majority of people have been way off on this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 16, 2013 Share Posted September 16, 2013 The timing of the system in question is different on the GFS and the Euro by a large margin, will need to see how this resolves itself; delayed or expedited formation may imply a non-threat. 0z GFS does show a Sandy-like progression like the Euro but has the system making landfall in Eastern Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 16, 2013 Share Posted September 16, 2013 Tim's call was beyond outlandish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 16, 2013 Share Posted September 16, 2013 Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 16, 2013 Share Posted September 16, 2013 we're pretty much down to Carribean/Gulf/homebrew type of situation. Wave train off Africa just beyond dead....cold Indian ocean one of the culprits? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 16, 2013 Share Posted September 16, 2013 seems like it would be to far off shore to have really any impact?That map shows out to sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted September 16, 2013 Share Posted September 16, 2013 Most of the models seem to have that little disturbance popping out of the gulf, but earlier than what the Euro suggested yesterday. The high ends up shoving it into Nova Soctia or Newfoundland, instead of back into the east coast. Found this great site for tropical model runs: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted September 16, 2013 Share Posted September 16, 2013 euro is a bit interesting late in the run with development east of FL, moving N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted September 16, 2013 Share Posted September 16, 2013 euro is a bit interesting late in the run with development east of FL, moving N It actually looks like its moving Northeast. However, the Euro doesn't have the "Sandy-esque" pattern D10 that people were hyping yesterday. Looks like there is a NE ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted September 16, 2013 Share Posted September 16, 2013 It actually looks like its moving Northeast. However, the Euro doesn't have the "Sandy-esque" pattern D10 that people were hyping yesterday. Looks like there is a NE ridge. not as though it matters at this juncture..but it slows and turns N at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 16, 2013 Share Posted September 16, 2013 It actually looks like its moving Northeast. However, the Euro doesn't have the "Sandy-esque" pattern D10 that people were hyping yesterday. Looks like there is a NE ridge. This would be a close call; blocking New England ridge moving out and the storm would either stall or get pushed westward and then north to northeast as a weakness catches it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted September 16, 2013 Share Posted September 16, 2013 not as though it matters at this juncture..but it slows and turns N at the end of the run. Yes, I know its basically worthless at this range. Some of us have Sandy "trauma" so when stuff like thus gets hyped up its worrisome even though its a 10 day model run output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 16, 2013 Author Share Posted September 16, 2013 Yes, I know its basically worthless at this range. Some of us have Sandy "trauma" so when stuff like thus gets hyped up its worrisome even though its a 10 day model run output.Who is hyping it up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted September 16, 2013 Share Posted September 16, 2013 Who is hyping it up? Bastardi, of course. I should stop following his tweets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 16, 2013 Share Posted September 16, 2013 I didn't really see hype about anything on here looks like anything that does develop would go ots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted September 16, 2013 Share Posted September 16, 2013 What would the differences be in a ridge in the East (todays 12z Euro) versus a trough (yesterdays 12z Euro) be to a storm off the east coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted September 16, 2013 Share Posted September 16, 2013 I didn't really see hype about anything on here looks like anything that does develop would go ots Sorry, I didnt mean to imply people here. I meant Bastardi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 16, 2013 Share Posted September 16, 2013 Bastardi, of course. I should stop following his tweets. First mistake. Kevin will lead you astray less often than him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted September 16, 2013 Share Posted September 16, 2013 I really would like to learn about patterns, etc. I think after the trauma of Sandy last year, learning more about weather as opposed to being anxious about it would help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted September 16, 2013 Share Posted September 16, 2013 I really would like to learn about patterns, etc. I think after the trauma of Sandy last year, learning more about weather as opposed to being anxious about it would help. That's a really good idea! One of the greatest reasons for misinterpretation of risk is lack of information. If you understand the danger, you'll be better able to protect yourself. Basic preparations, such as first aid kits or food/water for several days, are a great idea too. I'm very interested by such matters, as I am currently investigating tornado warnings from the perspective of an average person, to try and make the warnings more effective. Also, if one guy is hyping something, it tends to kind of disappear after a day or two. Look at blogs and such by local meteorologists, and get an idea of what other reputable forecasters are saying. Hope some of that helps, I know it helps me quite often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 17, 2013 Share Posted September 17, 2013 I really would like to learn about patterns, etc. I think after the trauma of Sandy last year, learning more about weather as opposed to being anxious about it would help. Good long range pattern discussion can be found here. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html Unlink JBs Twitter feed and you probably won't have stuff to be overanxious about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted September 17, 2013 Share Posted September 17, 2013 Sorry, I didnt mean to imply people here. I meant Bastardi. His tweets were picked up by national news outlets yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted September 17, 2013 Share Posted September 17, 2013 His tweets were picked up by national news outlets yesterday. Sensationalism sells, big time. Blow it up and get the ratings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 17, 2013 Share Posted September 17, 2013 00z GGEM develops future Jerry and turns it into a very powerful extra tropical cyclone into SE Canada next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted September 17, 2013 Share Posted September 17, 2013 00z GGEM develops future Jerry and turns it into a very powerful extra tropical cyclone into SE Canada next week Impressive looking system. Still got 8 days to bring it back west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 17, 2013 Share Posted September 17, 2013 Impressive looking system. Still got 8 days to bring it back west. That system has no chance of making it here. It recurvs north of Puerto Rico and is more of a threat to Bermuda than anyone else outside of Canada and the shipping lanes. The 00z GGEM develops another system and takes it into the gulf coast as high end TS on Sunday. I believe that this is the same system that the GFS and Euro have been flirting with coming across FL and possibly getting trapped under a developing ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 17, 2013 Share Posted September 17, 2013 GFS is suffering with some convective feedback at 12z. Develops two frontal lows and trends slightly towards the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 17, 2013 Share Posted September 17, 2013 theres always one model that is kind of interesting http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2013091712&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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