Tropical Disco 2013 SNE

[joey2002]

Predicting the weather 3 days from now is tough enough. Why try to predict it 3+ months from now.

 

lol, totally agree.

[ineedsnow]

far out but atleast a little interesting

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTROPATL0.5_12z/ecmwfloop.html

[free_man]

Yeah, there have been hints here and there of a system off the SE coast in the long range.  I think something will eventually form and at least threaten the EC.

far out but atleast a little interesting

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTROPATL0.5_12z/ecmwfloop.html

[CoastalWx]

Yawn.

[amarshall]

Long period groundswell starting to fill in here from Gabrielle.

 

1.6 ft at 15 seconds on the boston buoy.

[N. OF PIKE]

Long period groundswell starting to fill in here from Gabrielle.

1.6 ft at 15 seconds on the boston buoy.

You are correct,sir

[Ginx snewx]

You are correct,sir

pickles

[joey2002]

pickles

 

Ahhh surfs up!!!

 

How big are the waves expected to get locally?

[free_man]

next fix

 

[BrianLaverty]

And now its gone on the 0z run.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

The prediction about this years Atlantic Hurricane season is a perfect example of why I have 0 interest into seasonal forecasting.  Just not worth it because when it comes down to it you can never account for all of the factors that go into making such a forecast.

 

Predicting the weather 3 days from now is tough enough. Why try to predict it 3+ months from now.

 

Well said.  Let's hope the cold winter forecasts "verify" somewhat better.  

[free_man]

Still a wee bit early to write off all cane forecasts, surely the higher numbers are in trouble though.

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

Still a wee bit early to write off all cane forecasts, surely the higher numbers are in trouble though.

Indeed, an active October can bring things closer to average. "Extremely active" seems to be somewhat unlikely at this point though.

[Ginx snewx]

this is an interesting scenario

[free_man]

Indeed, an active October can bring things closer to average. "Extremely active" seems to be somewhat unlikely at this point though.

I think we're actually above average for named systems, assuming the avg is somewhere around 12 named/ 5H.  The let-down seems to be stemming from lack of 'canes, ACE and overall landfalls..but it only takes one or two rogue systems to change that.

[N. OF PIKE]

I think we're actually above average for named systems, assuming the avg is somewhere around 12 named/ 5H. The let-down seems to be stemming from lack of 'canes, ACE and overall landfalls..but it only takes one or two rogue systems to change that.

we are well below record ACE total for the date, This year is the worst to date and a absolute joke. Sure it only takes one to be memorable, but to get average we may need a comeback like boston had second half of winter

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

this is an interesting scenario

I'm interested

And yeah in terms of named storms I think we're at or ahead of schedule, but they've all just been so incredibly terrible thus far. Ingrid looks to give some excitement to Mexico though. So at least there should be some storm videos soon.

[Ginx snewx]

I'm interested

And yeah in terms of named storms I think we're at or ahead of schedule, but they've all just been so incredibly terrible thus far. Ingrid looks to give some excitement to Mexico though. So at least there should be some storm videos soon.

Ingrid is moving NE

[joey2002]

@SurfSkiWxMan: Tim Kelley: "we should not be surprised if two hurricanes impact New England between August 18 and September 21"

http://t.co/TKLV2UAisV

 

Maybe he meant 2 hurricanes in the Atlantic? 

[free_man]

we are well below record ACE total for the date, This year is the worst to date and a absolute joke. Sure it only takes one to be memorable, but to get average we may need a comeback like boston had second half of winter

It's really not that bad of a season, however the same can't be said of people's expectations.

[N. OF PIKE]

It's really not that bad of a season, however the same can't be said of people's expectations.

Personally i had zero expectations,none. I mean this is a record tie for latest hurricane to form (and it was near azores) , you are correct it hasnt been a bad season wrt damage, but otherwise its beyond sad. U think weak tropical storms make this a decent season? There is a reason ACE is used and its at a record LOW. Because the season has been dreadful , anyone who thinks otherwise should put down the book "the secret" and realize it's ok to call a dud a dud.

[Ginx snewx]

It's really not that bad of a season, however the same can't be said of people's expectations.

wut? this season has sucked, Ace

[free_man]

wut? this season has sucked, Ace

It's September 14th, ACE is easy come-easy go.  If it were October 14th I might agree more.

[Typhoon Tip]

Using the overall circulation signal off the MJO concepts we should enter a lull in the activity over the next week.  Perhaps we are seeing some of that take form now, in that some of the immediate activity just gotten red-headed-step-child.  

 

Still, there are local spatial scale regions that could pop up as interesting during that time, where smaller than hemispheric influence parlay into smaller favorable regions.  One such region may be near the Bahamas.  I have noticed that every operational model type there is have dents and/or weakly closed circulation centers amid a conducive layout from Florida throughout the Puerto Rico archipelago.  What happens there by D4 or 5 is that the heights tend to rise in a band along 35-ish north, albeit narrowly..  But in the hours/days leading, there is a tendency for frontalysis waves to end up there, and fester.  It's a recipe for a book-ender.  I think Bob was a book-end spin up (but don't quote me).  So if we have some on-going convection dappled about that area, and then rather abruptly insert an anticyclonic tendency over top (lowering shear), then typical CMC bias may not be so biased.   

 

If the modeling and obs et al are majority correct through D10, that's about all there is to look for from where I am sitting.   time will tell. 

[free_man]

[Typhoon Tip]

 

Though it has very low probability for success at this time range, that, in its self, is a monster hybrid and potential disaster for the upper MA and New England regions.  The extrapolation from a scenario of a Florida emerging TC that is getting baroclinic assist as it crawls N over the Gulf Stream, and a big high exiting New England, while 500mb ridge forces all NW would be bad. 

[SnoSki14]

I noticed both the NAO and AO are forecast to dip into fairly negative territory. Wouldn't this favor a blocking pattern that could potentially make what the Euro show more plausible?

It's very low probability indeed but it is quite intriguing as models have been hinting at something developing in the NW Caribbean and heading through the Florida straits and so forth.

[Typhoon Tip]

I noticed both the NAO and AO are forecast to dip into fairly negative territory. Wouldn't this favor a blocking pattern that could potentially make what the Euro show more plausible?

It's very low probability indeed but it is quite intriguing as models have been hinting at something developing in the NW Caribbean and heading through the Florida straits and so forth.

 

it's complicated.  In a general sense, ...yeah, blocking can lead to interesting scenarios.   Sandy and a plethora of others.  But details in the orientation of any such features are what moves the pen along the page of those eventual story lines, and the atmosphere is still in the imaginative process --   ah, so to speak. 

[ineedsnow]

seems like it would be to far off shore to have really any impact?

Though it has very low probability for success at this time range, that, in its self, is a monster hybrid and potential disaster for the upper MA and New England regions.  The extrapolation from a scenario of a Florida emerging TC that is getting baroclinic assist as it crawls N over the Gulf Stream, and a big high exiting New England, while 500mb ridge forces all NW would be bad. 

[AvantHiatus]

Why is everything considered hybrid if it's off the East Coast these days; if there was a year to get a significant warm core system impact north of 40N this would be the year as sea surface temperatures are warmer than average and by a large margin. My primary analog for this potential event is Hurricane Bob of 1991. However, the Gulf-type genesis is somewhat unprecedented as portrayed by the GFS and Euro.

 

Late September has observed significant strikes including the Long Island Express and Hurricane Esther (not making landfall but sustained Category 3 intensity until 40N).