AvantHiatus Posted September 8, 2013 Share Posted September 8, 2013 In any other season it would of been a decent tropical threat; too much shear out there in the Western Atlantic and simply nothing can get going this year for other reasons unknown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 8, 2013 Share Posted September 8, 2013 I'm looking around out there at IR loops over the Basin and one thing that leaps out at me is that the westerlies appear to already be activated quite far S. There are all these fracture Rossby wave segments and west to east motion as far S as the northern Caribbean latitudes. Typically, you have TUTTs in that area, retrograding west under the ambient sub-tropical ridge axis that are not really there so far this season. The flow doesn't curl back W in more typical trade fashion until 15 N! That doesn't lend to a very favorable assumption of the basin. It's also been going on for a long time, and as autumn gets under way here, heh... Regardless of the cause, ...persistence/trend are hard to knock. I will say this ... the operational GFS has for days been modeling about a 5-day long period of improved subtropical ridge expression for mid month. Perhaps that will really be a good time. That much is certainly hinted at by CPC MJO break-down for the next 2 weeks: "Tropical cyclone formation is possible over the central Atlantic and the Bay of Campeche during Week-1, with increasing odds for cyclogenesis over the Atlantic main development region (MDR) later in the week and during Week-2." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 and 0-fer for what? no 'canes? i'll be shocked if that happens. i still think, when all is set and done...we end up AN in terms of named storms and normal in terms of canes. maybe not majors, but they will come eventually this season. yep. Zip, nada, zilch. No canes for this year per my prediction a few weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 yep. Zip, nada, zilch. No canes for this year per my prediction a few weeks ago. TD 9 isn't going to have much stopping it from reaching hurricane strength this week, and that may happen as soon as the next 72 hours. It's going to fish, but it should be a hurricane when it does so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 The great Andrew hurricane jinx of 2013. Got a 17kw whole house generator installed after last years storms. Power will never go out again. Hurricane season cancelled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 12z gfs looks like it develops ex98l but is to far east to have any impact but I think this is the first run to really do anything with it in the last few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 http://science.time.com/2013/09/09/a-silent-hurricane-season-ignites-a-debate-over-global-warming/?hpt=hp_t2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 http://science.time.com/2013/09/09/a-silent-hurricane-season-ignites-a-debate-over-global-warming/?hpt=hp_t2 I'll never see a hurricane again. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 So 5 years ago we were going to see more Katrina's due to global warming, now after a quiet period,we're going to see less due to global warming? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 I'm looking around out there at IR loops over the Basin and one thing that leaps out at me is that the westerlies appear to already be activated quite far S. There are all these fracture Rossby wave segments and west to east motion as far S as the northern Caribbean latitudes. Typically, you have TUTTs in that area, retrograding west under the ambient sub-tropical ridge axis that are not really there so far this season. The flow doesn't curl back W in more typical trade fashion until 15 N! That doesn't lend to a very favorable assumption of the basin. It's also been going on for a long time, and as autumn gets under way here, heh... Regardless of the cause, ...persistence/trend are hard to knock. I will say this ... the operational GFS has for days been modeling about a 5-day long period of improved subtropical ridge expression for mid month. Perhaps that will really be a good time. That much is certainly hinted at by CPC MJO break-down for the next 2 weeks: "Tropical cyclone formation is possible over the central Atlantic and the Bay of Campeche during Week-1, with increasing odds for cyclogenesis over the Atlantic main development region (MDR) later in the week and during Week-2." Great post, we have not observed persistent ridging in September and October for a few good years; the pattern has screamed blocking and backdoor fronts. I think there will be a significant Caribbean system that takes a run at the East Coast around late September. The track of which will be dictated by what type of longwave pattern establishes itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 So 5 years ago we were going to see more Katrina's due to global warming, now after a quiet period,we're going to see less due to global warming? LOL Studies have shown we may see fewer storms and up to a 3% increase in storm strength. Basically it tells us nothing about any GW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 just about everything from 12z suggests we get the "I" storm in the BOC this week. that would be 9 named storms - average date of 9th named storm is oct 4th. everything has been weak so far...but # of storms may end up relatively on target euro also keeps the wave in front of humberto as a discernible feature right up to the Bahamas region through the course of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 http://science.time.com/2013/09/09/a-silent-hurricane-season-ignites-a-debate-over-global-warming/?hpt=hp_t2 Siting Mother Jones as a source...*facepalm* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Siting Mother Jones as a source...*facepalm* Lol I will say though I've read a few climate change related stories on their site and their science writer is quite good/knowledgable. The ones I've seen have been leaps and bounds better than what you see in most of the mainstream media (obvious exception being Andy Revkin at the Times). This season is just so horribly boring. I'm so surprised it has turned out this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 so close yet so far! http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2013/Tropical-Storm-Gabrielle?map=5day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 so close yet so far! http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2013/Tropical-Storm-Gabrielle?map=5day A little closer and it would be like Earl a few years ago. I remember people rushing to the coast to see wind and waves from it and they weren't surfers. I went to see the nonsense and it was funny seeing people stand around in what were light storm conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 I was one of those people lol I went with paul A little closer and it would be like Earl a few years ago. I remember people rushing to the coast to see wind and waves from it and they weren't surfers. I went to see the nonsense and it was funny seeing people stand around in what were light storm conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Ha ha - 000WTNT44 KNHC 101434TCDAT4TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL0920131100 AM AST TUE SEP 10 2013SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT HUMBERTO HAS STOPPED INTENSIFYING...AT LEAST FOR THE MOMENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Ha ha - 000 WTNT44 KNHC 101434 TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013 1100 AM AST TUE SEP 10 2013 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT HUMBERTO HAS STOPPED INTENSIFYING... AT LEAST FOR THE MOMENT. Sweet-maybe we can make the record and my prediction of no hurricanes will live on to see another day...2013 curse continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 It's time folks. All the doubters..active period about to explode oe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi25m US East coast may be threatened Sept 5-12 as pattern ripens to pull in what will become a much more African wave pattern for a few weeks BUST! another one for kevin! Tim Kelley NECN @SurfSkiWxMan4h Plume of energy out of Africa today, forecast to threaten USA Sept 10 pic.twitter.com/1QucwAsxMG View photo BUST! How's Timmy's call? n/m, found it. @SurfSkiWxMan: Tim Kelley: "we should not be surprised if two hurricanes impact New England between August 18 and September 21" http://t.co/TKLV2UAisV 11 more days BUST! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 BUST! BUST! 11 more days BUST! Actually everyone has busted. I saw many many posts from peeps calling for an active beginning to Sept as the GFS Ens showed including pros here. That cold pool in the East Atlantic and SAL worked in conjunction to squelch any development. I am with Roger Smith and his idea of a Mid October Hybrid making trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 goes to show you what the typical long range prediction means.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 People just keep track of Kevin's calls and compare to his verification and just keep a simple count of them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Looks like those that had that petty hope for a futility record or record tie, you may not get what you want. Humberto is at 70mph and we still have two update cycles before the 11th of Sept. It's gonna be close. Frankly I hope it goes Cane at like 11:58pm - wah wah wahhh. Then, nothing else the rest of the year, so no one gets to be happy. Muah hahahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 Looks like those that had that petty hope for a futility record or record tie, you may not get what you want. Humberto is at 70mph and we still have two update cycles before the 11th of Sept. It's gonna be close. Frankly I hope it goes Cane at like 11:58pm - wah wah wahhh. Then, nothing else the rest of the year, so no one gets to be happy. Muah hahahaha It looks Humberto made Hurricane with the 5AM update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 yep. Zip, nada, zilch. No canes for this year per my prediction a few weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 Bustola for me. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 The prediction about this years Atlantic Hurricane season is a perfect example of why I have 0 interest into seasonal forecasting. Just not worth it because when it comes down to it you can never account for all of the factors that go into making such a forecast. Predicting the weather 3 days from now is tough enough. Why try to predict it 3+ months from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 The prediction about this years Atlantic Hurricane season is a perfect example of why I have 0 interest into seasonal forecasting. Just not worth it because when it comes down to it you can never account for all of the factors that go into making such a forecast. Predicting the weather 3 days from now is tough enough. Why try to predict it 3+ months from now. One would really need to peer into the mind of God to determine a given season's intent. The "factors" that go into any particular storm do not even exist at the times these predictions are typically made. The insult with tropical prediction is when forecasting agencies attempt to give numbers, such as 13 total, 6 this ... 3 that. That's really all garbage, and when NCEP, or NHC, or TPC or whatever agency puts numbers out like that, in affect they discredit themselves in mind mind. The current state of the art of any kind of seasonal forecasting should really stop at: "...We are currently looking at a few factors that make this [enter season of discussion] perhaps interesting, but we are not sure in what way. Just be vigil for active periods, and we will do our best to determine those times and give lead notice," and leave it at that. A statement such as that would have sufficed for this season perfectly, because here we are ... We are in an active period, with TS, a hurricane, and a developing depression concurrently taking place amid the Atlantic Basin. Winter seasonal forecasting is a little better, but when that National Farmer's Almanac Inquirer tries to tell us that the Superbowl will be impeded by a blockbuster blizzard...ooph! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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