Typhoon Tip Posted September 1, 2013 Share Posted September 1, 2013 Not sure how long this is modeled to persist but 97L has found itself tuck up under some very impressive divergent flow aloft. All quadrants showing anticyclonic motion and encouraging strong upwelling restoring force, leading to eruption of intense convection all along a perceived trough axis that extends west to east from the Islands to some 300 naut miles E. Given to the big oceanic heat content and that divergent field aloft, and considering the apparent absence of inhibitory dry air and/or SAL contamination ... bumping the hash to solid medium seems almost an understatement. It may just be that the flow aloft is only transient, not sure.... The CMC was (of course) the only g-based model that has been developing this 97L (shown a few post ago in this thread). However, now that HWRF (tropical NAM/WRF model...) is also developing a small TC, taking it to between Fl and the lower Bahamas by 126 hours. What I find intriguing is that the recent experimental Roundy product shows that right around D5, there is a fairly large region of positive anomaly for development, situated right in that general area... see below (bottom panel is the anomaly, top is probability). It should be noted that the MJO has been flagging this first two weeks of September as a more favorable arena compared to the suppressive nature of the overall circulation system that dominated through August. 200mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted September 1, 2013 Share Posted September 1, 2013 97l looks like biggest threat could be bahamas . Most tropical guidance deepens this and i think it will turn n then ne if it develops , ginxy GET ready, i smell some swell in a week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 97l looks like biggest threat could be bahamas . Most tropical guidance deepens this and i think it will turn n then ne if it develops , ginxy GET ready, i smell some swell in a weekwe could use it before the SST dump. 3-4 days of NNE NW winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 2, 2013 Author Share Posted September 2, 2013 Maybe a weak TS day 10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 Maybe a weak TS day 10? Sad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 97L has a bit of cyclonic curl going on around 62.5W/14.5E ... perhaps elongate slightly NNW, with scattered disorganized CB in the vicinity. Current movement is W at ~ 12 naut m/hr. If the system were not moving at all there would be a net shear from the E, but that motion combined with 15kts of U/A characterizes a lowered shear environment. There is apparent anticyclonic motion to the U/A ahead and to the N of the low axis. So overall, on the plus side of potential. I was a bit non-plussed to figure out why this thing wasn't developing in better earnest given params 2 days ago, but TPC is currently citing dry mid-level air. When using the conventional WV channel on their own satellite web-page I am not certain how they are making that determination -- they must have another means at their disposal; perhaps a sounding off one of the islands? It's amazing how some seasons seem to need EVERYTHING plus a lucky charm to get ANYTHING spun, yet other years you can have a cornucopia of adverse factors that don't seem to matter. So yeah, even the Euro has a much more important TW/cyclone over the eastern Atlantic in the extended. I wouldn't give up on 97L, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 Well ...it's painfully obvious how interesting this thread is at this time... TPC has upped the probability of 97L's development to medium chance. Cyclonic turning has continued during the day, and despite some mid level dry air issues, there does ever so slowly appear to be a congealing of convection closer to the center. It's only worth it really because models range from the Bahamas (which is precarious for the SE U.S.) to a Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 Would not surprise me at all if 97L is upgraded before the end of the day... Satellite and radar are both showing an abrupt rotation has began about 100 miles or SSE of Puerto Rico Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 URNT12 KNHC 260018 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL952013 A. 25/23:48:30Z B. 19 deg 04 min N 095 deg 46 min W C. NA D. 35 kt E. 037 deg 18 nm F. 128 deg 37 kt G. 040 deg 21 nm H. EXTRAP 1003 mb I. 22 C / 506 m J. 23 C / 501 m K. 23 C / NA L. NA M. NA N. 12345 / 1 O. 0.02 / 1 nm P. AF309 01BBA INVEST OB 09 MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 52 KT 321/32 00:01:30Z SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT MAX FL TEMP 23 C 030 / 11 NM FROM FL CNTR Outbound wind received at 5000 feet ; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 It's TD 7 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 'Mazing watching this thing's transformation over the last 3 hours as it has really suddenly gotten its act together. When I first looked at TD7 3 hours ago on the San Juan base reflectivity, the system was turning cyclonically overall, but the exact center of rotation was hard to pin-point. Not the case anymore. In fact, it has a dense core of deep convection collocated with a very identifiable and singular axis of rotation. It even has what looks like a spiral band on the southern arc. I don't think this system has any intention of hanging out in TD status for very long. Ample oceanic heat content, superb outflow at high altitudes ... and TPCs track is through the Mona Passage, which is wide enough to allow a TC's core an unimpeding transit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 La la land the Euro is hinting at a trop home growner, has been for the past couple of days but the ENS are much different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 5, 2013 Author Share Posted September 5, 2013 La la land the Euro is hinting at a trop home growner, has been for the past couple of days but the ENS are much different Ens are not going to pick up a cane at that timeframe. Ops will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 La la land the Euro is hinting at a trop home growner, has been for the past couple of days but the ENS are much different where? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 Ens are not going to pick up a cane at that timeframe. Ops will The euro ensembles are 32km resolution as far as I can tell. GFS op 27km. The euro ensembles should show something under 10 days out if the signal is strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 The euro ensembles are 32km resolution as far as I can tell. GFS op 27km. The euro ensembles should show something under 10 days out if the signal is strong. If I'm remembering correctly they had Sandy that far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 If I'm remembering correctly they had Sandy that far out. I believe they did as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 i feel like the door is open on the euro in the extended period if we can get a wave in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 Welp ....perhaps RIP for Gabrielle. The system has entirely decoupled, as is obviously shown by looping convetional satellite products, where the llc move over the eastern tip of H., and the mid level component now trundles NNE, E of PR. There are new CB in the vicinity of the llc ... If this activity should fill it may have a chance to make a comeback, otherwise, this wacky odd year of ...pretty much inexplicable suppression continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 i feel like the door is open on the euro in the extended period if we can get a wave in there.has had that signal for a few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 i feel like the door is open on the euro in the extended period if we can get a wave in there. Yeah it's an intriguing pattern next week for Thursday/Friday. Not sure we'll have anything in the tropics though it could turn out to be a pretty wet stretch if even some moisture gets involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 6, 2013 Share Posted September 6, 2013 ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ, wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 6, 2013 Share Posted September 6, 2013 what a complete and utter bust this tropical season is...my call of an O-fer is looking better and better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted September 6, 2013 Share Posted September 6, 2013 what a complete and utter bust this tropical season is...my call of an O-fer is looking better and better. and 0-fer for what? no 'canes? i'll be shocked if that happens. i still think, when all is set and done...we end up AN in terms of named storms and normal in terms of canes. maybe not majors, but they will come eventually this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted September 6, 2013 Share Posted September 6, 2013 and 0-fer for what? no 'canes? i'll be shocked if that happens. i still think, when all is set and done...we end up AN in terms of named storms and normal in terms of canes. maybe not majors, but they will come eventually this season. Think the Caribbean or gulf will be the big zone for development? African coast has been brutal.I agree that it will not be a cane-less season, there might be nothing chase able but I definitely think there *will* be hurricanes eventually. It's not like there's a raging niño. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted September 6, 2013 Share Posted September 6, 2013 Think the Caribbean or gulf will be the big zone for development? African coast has been brutal. well the whole basin has been brutal. there's still a solid 2+ weeks of time for the CV season and then yeah focus shifts westward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 7, 2013 Share Posted September 7, 2013 Might get backdoored by Gabrielle if she redevelops; looks like a near-miss and good surf conditions if it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 7, 2013 Share Posted September 7, 2013 well the whole basin has been brutal. there's still a solid 2+ weeks of time for the CV season and then yeah focus shifts westward. As seen on main tropics thread, several runs of the GFS and GEFS have been suggesting Caribbean activity affecting the Eastern Gulf of Florida. Unlike Donna and David, not a Cape Verde system, but there has been more than one SE/FL storm that had significant effects on NYC and SNE areas. Where I'm watching. anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted September 7, 2013 Share Posted September 7, 2013 Might get backdoored by Gabrielle if she redevelops; looks like a near-miss and good surf conditions if it happens. Hugging the horribly unreliable Operational GGEM? No other model supports it and its ensembles dont even support the crap it shows on the Op run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted September 8, 2013 Share Posted September 8, 2013 If phil gets bearish, i'll throw the towel in. Till then, i have hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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