Tropical Disco 2013 SNE

[Ginx snewx]

And this thread in this forum would still have more action that the first five tropical storms of 2013 put together.  And people would be going to the Cape to watch. 

link to that model http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=fim_jet&domain=236&run_time=28+Aug+2013+-+12Z not many would go to watch a storm sliding east of CC with that profile, although the surf would be a total win. We literally have had dozens of these over the years, good waves

[free_man]

huge full trough though, as long as that pig ridge stays on the West Coast it's pretty much curtains

Well for NE, yes.  It's curtains nearly any year.

[Quincy]

I wouldn't/don't put much stock into the OP Canadian this far out, but it brings a strong tropical system towards the East Coast by next weekend:

[Brian5671]

Something's going to have to develop in a hurry for that to open.  We don't even have a depression in the entire Atlantic basin right now....

[Typhoon Tip]

[Tropopause_Fold]

stuff is so bad in the tropics....systems moving E off of Northern South America. LOL.

if you have the euro at 3 or 6 hours...you can actually follow systems moving into the C Atl from the west. 

[Quincy]

(image)

CMC takes what looks like a 'Cane into the Carolinas next weekend:

[Brian5671]

The Canadian was the first to pick up Sandy so maybe it's onto something here....

[Typhoon Tip]

CMC takes what looks like a 'Cane into the Carolinas next weekend:

 

Yeah, the folks at Florida U only run that product out to 180 hours, but you can see from the chart I threw up that your's becomes the extrapolation rather nicely. 

 

For the general reader: Having said that, there are some oddities about the CMC's overall evolution that are a tad suspect.  

1) It's developing the TW in the eastern Caribbean where climatologically TCs have a tough time developing there (there are particular reasons for that, that I'm not getting into here)

2) It then takes the steadily deepening TC ... perhaps explosively, right across the Puerto Rican archipelago, appearing to do so right over the Island and it's 5,000+ center mountainous terrain.  All that around 5 days from now, which ... it's worth it I think to begin discussion because TPC terms their own outlooks at 120 hours.  Anything that happens after that including your's and my charts is obviously dubious.  But, sufficed it is to say, we'd like to see the CMC overcome the climate odds, and the Island transit first. 

 

The TW that the CMC is focused on is the one mid way that is hashed out as low probability, currently. 

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

The Canadian was the first to pick up Sandy so maybe it's onto something here....

God willing lol... Otherwise might as well hope to tie 1914 in the 0 hurricane department.

Although I don't really think that extreme is likely, run of the mill below average would be more believable at this point.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Yeah, the folks at Florida U only run that product out to 180 hours, but you can see from the chart I threw up that your's becomes the extrapolation rather nicely. 

 

For the general reader: Having said that, there are some oddities about the CMC's overall evolution that are a tad suspect.  

1) It's developing the TW in the eastern Caribbean where climatologically TCs have a tough time developing there (there are particular reasons for that, that I'm not getting into here)

2) It then takes the steadily deepening TC ... perhaps explosively, right across the Puerto Rican archipelago, appearing to do so right over the Island and it's 5,000+ center mountainous terrain.  All that around 5 days from now, which ... it's worth it I think to begin discussion because TPC terms their own outlooks at 120 hours.  Anything that happens after that including your's and my charts is obviously dubious.  But, sufficed it is to say, we'd like to see the CMC overcome the climate odds, and the Island transit first. 

 

The TW that the CMC is focused on is the one mid way that is hashed out as low probability, currently. 

it also sucks...and develops just about everything with a hint of 8h vorticity...so...just run with that.

[Quincy]

Yeah, the folks at Florida U only run that product out to 180 hours, but you can see from the chart I threw up that your's becomes the extrapolation rather nicely. 

 

For the general reader: Having said that, there are some oddities about the CMC's overall evolution that are a tad suspect.  

1) It's developing the TW in the eastern Caribbean where climatologically TCs have a tough time developing there (there are particular reasons for that, that I'm not getting into here)

2) It then takes the steadily deepening TC ... perhaps explosively, right across the Puerto Rican archipelago, appearing to do so right over the Island and it's 5,000+ center mountainous terrain.  All that around 5 days from now, which ... it's worth it I think to begin discussion because TPC terms their own outlooks at 120 hours.  Anything that happens after that including your's and my charts is obviously dubious.  But, sufficed it is to say, we'd like to see the CMC overcome the climate odds, and the Island transit first. 

 

The TW that the CMC is focused on is the one mid way that is hashed out as low probability, currently. 

I also can't find a hurricane in the "modern" era since 1950 that went over the center of Puerto Rico and didn't weaken considerably. The only one that shows up is Georges in 1998, but that storm was a Cat 5 east of the Lesser Antilles, so that's not the same as a TD or TS forming near those islands. (it also left PR as a Cat 2)

 

Not to mention there were very few storms that passed over PR and continued on a NW heading. Hugo was an exception, but once again, that was a strong hurricane/Cape Verde storm. The one that might form here is not.

[ineedsnow]

would have to take the roadtrip for that

CMC takes what looks like a 'Cane into the Carolinas next weekend:

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

Hot off of the press from another BB from the very well-respected meteorologist and often downplayer of tropical threats, "wxman 57":

" I see a major change coming after Sept. 9th in the GFS & Canadian ensembles as well as Japanese model (my coworker tells me). Check out the North Atlantic panel and the '500mb Geopotential Height Anomaly' maps. Note that after the 8th, the ridge builds across the Atlantic but is located a lot farther north than normal. This is a pattern that opens up the tropics for development and also indicates less recurving storms:"

In the bigger picture, I still think that the current neutral negative ENSO is more favorable than unfavorable for a

major US threat sometime this season and I'm still betting on a major US H hit at some point (2/3 chance in my mind). There's plenty of time for that. That's in addition to the current strong MJO phase 1.

Hope lives?

[Brian5671]

JB starting to toss in the towel, now calling for one or two bigger storms and that's it.

[moneypitmike]

First August in 11 years without an Atlantic storm.    How far into September can we get?

[CoastalWx]

First August in 11 years without an Atlantic storm. How far into September can we get?

I believe by sept 11 if there is no hurricane, it's a record in modern history. Modern being satellite era.

[Damage In Tolland]

Canes, canes..all I see are canes

[Brian5671]

First August in 11 years without an Atlantic storm.    How far into September can we get?

I'm think we could go all the way w/o one.   And if we do get one, that might be it.   So much for the big active period....

[CT Rain]

Something sort of funny... going back and looking at old coop forms from Hurricane Carol... it's amazing how symmetrical the precip distribution was. Generally 2-3" on either side of the storm's track. Very unusual for a SNE hurricane.

[Damage In Tolland]

Something sort of funny... going back and looking at old coop forms from Hurricane Carol... it's amazing how symmetrical the precip distribution was. Generally 2-3" on either side of the storm's track. Very unusual for a SNE hurricane.

Did we gust to about 90 in NE CT in Carol?

[Ginx snewx]

Did we gust to about 90 in NE CT in Carol?

more than likely as your area was probably in the decaying western eyeball. Looking through aerials of Carol in Misquamicut and compared with surge from Sandy it appears Carols surge was only slightly higher. The present Google maps aerials in Misquamicut were taken just after Sandy and you can clearly see the debris field in Weekapaug pond woods directly behind the barrier beach. Carols was maybe a 100 yards further inland.

[CT Rain]

more than likely as your area was probably in the decaying western eyeball. Looking through aerials of Carol in Misquamicut and compared with surge from Sandy it appears Carols surge was only slightly higher. The present Google maps aerials in Misquamicut were taken just after Sandy and you can clearly see the debris field in Weekapaug pond woods directly behind the barrier beach. Carols was maybe a 100 yards further inland.

 

Kevin probably gusted 80ish in Carol. BDL and BAF managed 70 mph gusts out of the north. The revised track of Carol takes it over GON and then up through about Putnam... he probably would have missed the eyewall to the west since the eye and eyewall were pretty compact. 

 

As for the surge... you're probably right. I'm guessing Misquamicut was able to pull off a 7 or 8 foot surge during Carol? New London was 6.5ft but more exposed areas out toward Stonington and Groton were closer to 10.  The winds from Carol in Stonington and Westerly were strong enough for some pretty legit structural damage by the beaches... roofs coming off... some walls collapsing etc. That would only exacerbate the amount of damage done by the surge. 

[Ginx snewx]

Kevin probably gusted 80ish in Carol. BDL and BAF managed 70 mph gusts out of the north. The revised track of Carol takes it over GON and then up through about Putnam... he probably would have missed the eyewall to the west since the eye and eyewall were pretty compact.

As for the surge... you're probably right. I'm guessing Misquamicut was able to pull off a 7 or 8 foot surge during Carol? New London was 6.5ft but more exposed areas out toward Stonington and Groton were closer to 10. The winds from Carol in Stonington and Westerly were strong enough for some pretty legit structural damage by the beaches... roofs coming off... some walls collapsing etc. That would only exacerbate the amount of damage done by the surge.

yeah impressive winds, grew up hearing stories from the entire family about Carol, all the stories talk about the wind and that high pitch squeal only the biggies produce. I would imagine being on the eastern eyewall was super intense.

[Ginx snewx]

Came across this technical paper which is concentrated on damages from a land falling Cat 3/4 in Westerly RI , pretty eye opening conclusions http://cardinalscholar.bsu.edu/bitstream/123456789/193499/1/Mmurray_2009-3_BODY.pdf

History shows that Rhode Island‟s coast is in danger of a strong Category 3 or weak Category 4 hurricane. Though infrequent, hurricanes of this magnitude have made landfall in the region. As the population continues to grow and migrate toward the coast, reentry plans for such a storm are imperative.

While previous research on hurricane-induced evacuation is plentiful, there is a dearth of research focusing on evaluating the processes for people returning to their homes. This research examines simulated return plans for households in Westerly based on hurricanes with Category 3 and Category 4 strength. Reentry zones based on census tracts were created. Severity of damage in each tract is determined by weighing key variables computed by HAZUS-MH GIS software.

The Category 3 hurricane simulation had landfalling winds of 120 mph. The Category 4 storm scenario had winds of 135 mph at landfall. The 15 mph difference in wind speed increases the damage results immensely. Total building losses are more than double with the Category 4 storm from $1.1 billion to almost $2.5 billion. The percentage of displaced households in Westerly rises dramatically from 33% to 77% with the stronger storm simulation. Debris amounts swells from 227 thousand tons to over 425 thousand tons.

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

Came across this technical paper which is concentrated on damages from a land falling Cat 3/4 in Westerly RI , pretty eye opening conclusions http://cardinalscholar.bsu.edu/bitstream/123456789/193499/1/Mmurray_2009-3_BODY.pdf

History shows that Rhode Island‟s coast is in danger of a strong Category 3 or weak Category 4 hurricane. Though infrequent, hurricanes of this magnitude have made landfall in the region. As the population continues to grow and migrate toward the coast, reentry plans for such a storm are imperative.

While previous research on hurricane-induced evacuation is plentiful, there is a dearth of research focusing on evaluating the processes for people returning to their homes. This research examines simulated return plans for households in Westerly based on hurricanes with Category 3 and Category 4 strength. Reentry zones based on census tracts were created. Severity of damage in each tract is determined by weighing key variables computed by HAZUS-MH GIS software.

The Category 3 hurricane simulation had landfalling winds of 120 mph. The Category 4 storm scenario had winds of 135 mph at landfall. The 15 mph difference in wind speed increases the damage results immensely. Total building losses are more than double with the Category 4 storm from $1.1 billion to almost $2.5 billion. The percentage of displaced households in Westerly rises dramatically from 33% to 77% with the stronger storm simulation. Debris amounts swells from 227 thousand tons to over 425 thousand tons.

Wow, that would be a disaster of epic proportions. Always interesting to read this kind of paper.

Storms of that magnitude are so rare up here too, that would probably be one of the few situations where the media would be right to scare the bejesus out of people to really get the message across.

[Ginx snewx]

Kevin probably gusted 80ish in Carol. BDL and BAF managed 70 mph gusts out of the north. The revised track of Carol takes it over GON and then up through about Putnam... he probably would have missed the eyewall to the west since the eye and eyewall were pretty compact. 

 

As for the surge... you're probably right. I'm guessing Misquamicut was able to pull off a 7 or 8 foot surge during Carol? New London was 6.5ft but more exposed areas out toward Stonington and Groton were closer to 10.  The winds from Carol in Stonington and Westerly were strong enough for some pretty legit structural damage by the beaches... roofs coming off... some walls collapsing etc. That would only exacerbate the amount of damage done by the surge.

Perfect example of your reference to the wind damage from Carol

[Tropopause_Fold]

I'm think we could go all the way w/o one.   And if we do get one, that might be it.   So much for the big active period....

even as dead as it is...i don't see this happening.

 

of course, i never would have expected this season so far either.

 

but still, i think it picks up. 

[CoastalWx]

It very well could be a late season with rocket fuel in the western carb. Home brew season starts in

October as fronts die south of MIA.

[Ginx snewx]

It very well could be a late season with rocket fuel in the western carb. Home brew season starts in

October as fronts die south of MIA.

Middle of October.