Tropical Disco 2013 SNE

[TWCCraig]

I don't think anyuone forgets it. My original comment is that most of SNE has been dodging bullets the last 20 years...and its true. There's been bad damage on parts of the south coast during Irene and Sandy, but the majority of the region has been spared. Wind damage has been fairly minimal and certianly further east on CC and parts of the eastern RI inlets have been largely spared compared to what an actual direct hit would do.

 

I think a lot of people easily forget just what a direct hit can do in those spots.

 

For New England, yeah, you guys have been dodging bullets and have been fortunate for the most part. Damage was pretty bad here with Sandy. I'm just focusing on the media coverage of it all.

[joey2002]

If it happens once, it can happen twice. 

 

If it happened then, it can happen again...

[BrianLaverty]

Rhode Island is New England's forgotten state

 

This.

 

I guess because New Jersey got so much media coverage, not many people know about what it did to the Rhode Island shoreline.   If you drive down to parts of Westerly and Narragansett, you can see the damage from Sandy literally every way you look.   Almost all of the beaches look completely different... So much has been washed away... Obviously we've all seen the videos but this one shows just how bad Misquamicut was hit.  It looks like New Jersey but with none of the national attention.

 

http://vimeo.com/52513169

[free_man]

I wonder how rare the LIE 38' cat 3 landfall was. Can it happen again? Or is it in the blizzard of 78' type of lure that seems like we struggle to touch in intensity. I think the atmosphere has the ability to repeat itself, we just haven't been around or will be long enough to maybe see it. If it happens once, it can happen twice. 

1635 Colonicane and 1815 were both on par with 1938.

[free_man]

More on GCH

 

 

 

The Hurricane Research Division of the Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory of NOAA has conducted a Re-Analysis Project to re-examine the National Hurricane Center's data about historic hurricanes. In association with the Project, Brian Jarvinen, formerly of NHC, used modern hurricane and storm surge computer models to recreate a storm consistent with contemporary accounts of the GCH.[1]

Jarvinen estimated that the GCH was probably a Cape Verde-type hurricane, considering its intensity, which took a track similar to the Great Atlantic Hurricane of 1944 and Hurricane Edna of 1954. The storm's eye would have struck Long Island before moving between Boston and Plymouth. It would likely have been a Category 4 or 5 hurricane further south in the Atlantic, and it was at least a strong Category 3 hurricane at landfall with 125 mph (201 km/h) sustained winds and a central pressure of 938 mbar (27.7 inHg) at the Long Island landfall and 939 mbar (27.7 inHg) at the mainland landfall. This would be the most intense known hurricane landfall north of North Carolina. Jarvinen noted that the GCH may have caused the highest storm surge along the east coast of the U.S. in recorded history: 20 feet (6.1 m) near the head of Narragansett Bay. He concluded that "this was probably the most intense hurricane in New England history."[1]

An erosional scarp in the western Gulf of Maine may be a trace of the Great Colonial Hurricane.[3]

just wow if that happened again..

[ORH_wxman]

More on GCH

 

 

just wow if that happened...

 

That is 1635, right?

 

If it is, I agree. There is pretty good evidence that it was worse than 1938 though a bit further east. We'll never know if it was like Sandy though at landfall or more like Carol.

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

If it happened then, it can happen again...

Pretty much. Yeah three years in a row of northeast activity may be statistically unlikely, but every year is a clean slate of possibilities.

[ORH_wxman]

Pretty much. Yeah three years in a row of northeast activity may be statistically unlikely, but every year is a clean slate of possibilities.

 

 

The news outlets would explode from hype if 1954 happened again. It seems most people (esp the news) are not aware of how brutal the past has been for hurricanes in the northeast...mostly because they happened before a lot of the development on the coastline.

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

The news outlets would explode from hype if 1954 happened again. It seems most people (esp the news) are not aware of how brutal the past has been for hurricanes in the northeast...mostly because they happened before a lot of the development on the coastline.

No doubt, in the lead up to hurricane season I've had to deal with "dude, New England doesn't get hurricanes" and been forced to lay down some graphs and stats each time. Then it generally goes "oh wow, how come I never heard about all that before?"

The pretty much standardized ignorance to the wx history in the northeast will guarantee people crying apocalypse when (not if) we get back into another period like that.

[ORH_wxman]

No doubt, in the lead up to hurricane season I've had to deal with "dude, New England doesn't get hurricanes" and been forced to lay down some graphs and stats each time. Then it generally goes "oh wow, how come I never heard about all that before?"

The pretty much standardized ignorance to the wx history in the northeast will guarantee people crying apocalypse when (not if) we get back into another period like that.

 

If there's one thing the news hype machine has really soiled...its our past weather events. Every decent impact event now is the apocolypse with some obscure way to make it "record breaking" even if it really doesn't deserve that type of stamp. Don't get me wrong, I think increased coverage in weather has been a great thing in general, but if there is one huge negative, is it has really glossed over our violent past in the world of meteorology.

[free_man]

That is 1635, right?

 

If it is, I agree. There is pretty good evidence that it was worse than 1938 though a bit further east. We'll never know if it was like Sandy though at landfall or more like Carol.

Yeah 1635.  How do you mean Sandy vs. Carol.   Track?   Or damage to SNE?

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah 1635.  How do you mean Sandy vs. Carol.   Track?

 

 

No, extra-tropical vs still mostly intact eyewall. Carol was probably the most intact eyewall on record for SNE...granted we don't have much to go on except the past 60-70 years on decent obs. Sandy was obviosly extra-tropical by the time it made landfall (and of course it didn't even landfall in New England)...or at least well into the process. Carol was still highly tropical in nature at landfall. Which is fairly rare for SNE landfalls.

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

If there's one thing the news hype machine has really soiled...its our past weather events. Every decent impact event now is the apocolypse with some obscure way to make it "record breaking" even if it really doesn't deserve that type of stamp. Don't get me wrong, I think increased coverage in weather has been a great thing in general, but if there is one huge negative, is it has really glossed over our violent past in the world of meteorology.

Totally agree, it wouldn't detract from the coverage to compare the systems to storms from the past instead of saying 'oh god we've never seen anything like this before!' When 9/10 there are well recorded storms that were much worse.

[ORH_wxman]

Totally agree, it wouldn't detract from the coverage to compare the systems to storms from the past instead of saying 'oh god we've never seen anything like this before!' When 9/10 there are well recorded storms that were much worse.

 

 

Even a storm like Bob nowadays would probably be wayyy overhyped. I can't even imagine a storm like Carol...which wasn't 1938, but was insanely intense at landfall in SE CT and destroyed RI.

[free_man]

No, extra-tropical vs still mostly intact eyewall. Carol was probably the most intact eyewall on record for SNE...granted we don't have much to go on except the past 60-70 years on decent obs. Sandy was obviosly extra-tropical by the time it made landfall (and of course it didn't even landfall in New England)...or at least well into the process. Carol was still highly tropical in nature at landfall. Which is fairly rare for SNE landfalls.

Yeah, I understand.  I think the accounts of 1635 were microburst type damage, but super high-end type.  miles of forests blown down, etc.  But who really knows?

 

On a very small scale, that's the type of damage the Cape had in Bob.  It was fairly scattered, but areas hard hit were f*****d.

[free_man]

I always wonder if one of those oldschool biggies looked like Isabel at some point in the journey.  

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah, I understand.  I think the accounts of 1635 were microburst type damage, but super high-end type.  miles of forests blown down, etc.  But who really knows?

 

On a very small scale, that's the type of damage the Cape had in Bob.  It was fairly scattered, but areas hard hit were f*****d.

 

 

1635 would suggest it was more like Carol...but our data is so poor we will never know. But the account of localized extreme damage would suggest an eyewall was intact and of course the insane flooding in Narraganssett Bay bigger than the surge of 1938. But again we'll never know...the localized wind damage in 1635 could have been a sting jet like Sandy and the reports clearly old as hell and unreliable.

[N. OF PIKE]

I always wonder if one of those oldschool biggies looked like Isabel at some point in the journey.

i love the geometry in the eye of that pic,

That cane pass'd at precisely the correct angle to send humungous swell thru the 10 mile new providence channel in the bahamas. That day 15 foot swells pummel's a 10 mile wide area in se florida. There is even a study on that swell. I was at delray beach that day, the swells were as big as houses and the ese swell went from 15 feet in Delray to 2 feet 20 miles south, as the bahamas block most swells from the east direction south of fort pierce

[free_man]

1635 would suggest it was more like Carol...but our data is so poor we will never know. But the account of localized extreme damage would suggest an eyewall was intact and of course the insane flooding in Narraganssett Bay bigger than the surge of 1938. But again we'll never know...the localized wind damage in 1635 could have been a sting jet like Sandy and the reports clearly old as hell and unreliable.

Yeah, we won't know until the next one gets here.  :>

[free_man]

i love the geometry in the eye of that pic,

That cane pass'd at precisely the correct angle to send humungous swell thru the 10 mile new providence channel in the bahamas. That day 15 foot swells pummel's a 10 mile wide area in se florida. There is even a study on that swell. I was at delray beach that day, the swells were as big as houses and the ese swell went from 15 feet in Delray to 2 feet 20 miles south, as the bahamas block most swells from the east direction south of fort pierce

 Yeah, Isabel was a beast.  Those waves must have been jaw-dropping.  Isabel and Floyd were both mid-atlantic hurricanes, that perhaps in the 1920s-1960s would have ravaged FL.  Recent history has suggested the major hurricane lf rate had/has decreased over FL peninsula, from the east.

[ORH_wxman]

 Yeah, Isabel was a beast.  Those waves must have been jaw-dropping.  Isabel and Floyd were both mid-atlantic hurricanes, that perhaps in the 1920s-1960s would have ravaged FL.  Recent history has suggested the major hurricane lf rate had/has decreased over FL peninsula, from the east.

 

 

Epic period in US hurricanes...something that I think will happen again but won't be taken the same way. We had a taste in 2004 and 2005...of course 2005 will live in lore for Katrina. But if that period in the 1930s to 1950s happened nowadays, I don't want to even imagine the carnage and the media. Really it was 1926 (starting with the Miami hurricane and then 1928 with lake Okeechobee) through 1960 with Donna.

[free_man]

Epic period in US hurricanes...something that I think will happen again but won't be taken the same way. We had a taste in 2004 and 2005...of course 2005 will live in lore for Katrina. But if that period in the 1930s to 1950s happened nowadays, I don't want to even imagine the carnage and the media. Really it was 1926 (starting with the Miami hurricane and then 1928 with lake Okeechobee) through 1960 with Donna.

The turn-around is unbelievable, any reason for that?  The 'cane talk for us is not really based on reality, but for FL, they could easily take 2-3 majors a year. 

[N. OF PIKE]

Yeah, Isabel was a beast. Those waves must have been jaw-dropping. Isabel and Floyd were both mid-atlantic hurricanes, that perhaps in the 1920s-1960s would have ravaged FL. Recent history has suggested the major hurricane lf rate had/has decreased over FL peninsula, from the east.

One of the most exciting times preparing for a storm was living in s fl and preparing for floyd. All that was on every tv was satelite imagery of that beast tobour east for last two days prior.

. I just wonder why and how it has been so long since miami, fort lauderdale or west palm beach has been hit from the east from a long tracker, seems sorta strange? I remember ike, ready to freakin slam us, then it goes further south then any storm has historically from a position it was in, in the atlantic

[ORH_wxman]

The turn-around is unbelievable, any reason for that?  The 'cane talk for us is not really based on reality, but for FL, they could easily take 2-3 majors a year. 

 

 

Not sure what you mean...you mean the frequency during that time? We had a similar frequency in the 1990s and early 2000s through 2005. But since then the U.S. has gotten way lucky.

[ORH_wxman]

One of the most exciting times preparing for a storm was living in s fl and preparing for floyd. All that was on every tv was satelite imagery of that beast tobour east for last two days prior.

. I just wonder why and how it has been so long since miami, fort lauderdale or west palm beach has been hit from the east from a long tracker, seems sorta strange?

 

 

Floyd was a big model bust...all guidance had it hitting FL and of course the evacuations happened. But it turned north. That would have been devastating if Floyd hit S FL...its circulation was enormous.

[free_man]

Not sure what you mean...you mean the frequency during that time? We had a similar frequency in the 1990s and early 2000s through 2005. But since then the U.S. has gotten way lucky.

Yeah, I just meant the major reversal for FL peninsula landfalling hurricanes. 

[free_man]

 

[OceanStWx]

I don't think anyuone forgets it. My original comment is that most of SNE has been dodging bullets the last 20 years...and its true. There's been bad damage on parts of the south coast during Irene and Sandy, but the majority of the region has been spared. Wind damage has been fairly minimal and certianly further east on CC and parts of the eastern RI inlets have been largely spared compared to what an actual direct hit would do.

 

I think a lot of people easily forget just what a direct hit can do in those spots.

 

Your larger point is a valid one, RI has dodged some bullets. Sandy was awful for parts of the state, and the surge rivaled Bob in the upper bay, but overall winds were NE and pushing water out if not just keeping things steady state. If winds were supporting the surge into the mouth of the bay, it could have been a lot worse. The wind for Sandy was clearly not even as bad as Irene in RI either.

 

Much of the RI damage occurred because of multiple tide cycles of high water and high surf pounding the shoreline.

[CoastalWx]

We say this every year, but people have no idea what they are in for when a Cat II or worse comes into HVN. No idea and you can put NNE into the mix too if that happens.

[OceanStWx]

If there's one thing the news hype machine has really soiled...its our past weather events. Every decent impact event now is the apocolypse with some obscure way to make it "record breaking" even if it really doesn't deserve that type of stamp. Don't get me wrong, I think increased coverage in weather has been a great thing in general, but if there is one huge negative, is it has really glossed over our violent past in the world of meteorology.

 

Truth. The most common phone call we receive from the media is "did we break any record?" or "is this type of thing really rare?"

 

Case in point the tornado warnings we issued on Sunday. Now people want to know how many we issue a year, and if tornadoes are common in Maine. They seem shocked to learn we're on par with the rest of New England (if not slightly higher because of the size of the state).