Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,584
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Tropical Disco 2013 SNE


Damage In Tolland

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Well with favorable upper levels in terms of MJO/CCKW and obviously climo....the swtich will be turned on soon.

 

I'm really leaning more toward that (bold for the blind above) as a factor for improving the overall TC potential.  

 

More thoughts below: 

 

Not sure how Roundy derives his product, or what the verification skills really are.  The thing has said Experimental for over a decade now, so it is what it is. But it does show the Basin losing regions/size of negative anomaly zones, having it go neutral and/or even modestly positive up along the Eastern seaboard over the the next 2 to 3 weeks. 

 

Having said that, the 200mb anomalies are becoming far more favorable nearing the first week of September, most likely associated with the hemispheric absorption of the MJO presence as it swaths it's way over our region of the globe during that same time. Take a look at the product below.. that giant area of positive that is encroaching upon the Americas from off the eastern Pacific is moving eastward across the hemisphere.  It will be interesting to see what happens as this potential lid removal services the Basin.

am_ir_monthly_1.gif

 

We've been pretty quite, so it seems ...  I wonder what the actual numbers versus climate are, and if we really are negative to date.  If it ended today, obviously it would be epically busted.   I could almost envision a 2 to 3 week wave of improved circulation over all, going a bit of the distance toward improving any deficits.  Could be like ripping the cap off a pressure cooker, and things ramp up all at once.  It did something like that in 1995's historic season, albeit perhaps sooner.  

 

What I am wondering:  I want to see the break-down of the statistics, by month, for the Atlantic Basin as a whole, where the focus is on the greatest/most active. For example, what is the busiest August, Sept, and October, respectively, NOT as the aggregate.  I'm sure the data is out there, and I am simply being obtuse in my search methodology, but I am not currently finding that break-down.  What I want to know is, if September were to produce the equivalent of that which remains on the seasonal prediction (makes up for it), would that be one of the most active Septembers in history?  

 

It seems it would need to be, but I am less certain.   'Course, can't forget October and even November.  Personally though I think this hurricane season isn't protracted.  Much for the same reason I think this winter comes in with the goods this year, I think we see westerlies getting into the subtropics earlier, due to abrupt seasonal migration of the overall geopotential gradients (N-S).    

 

Anyway, supposing that is true, that September would have to be near or record breaking to atone for the seasonal forecast:

1) what is the likeliness of that happening?   

2) need to keep in mind ... the totals don't mean squat if you run a single Category 4 roaring up the coast of eastern N/A.  It only takes one storm to live on in common lore as an active season.   Tell that to the 6,000, pierced, bloated corpses bobbing around in the flotsam of Galveston Bay on September 13, 1900;  I'm sure they'd agree with you. 1900 was not that active of a season overall:

798px-1900_Atlantic_hurricane_season_map

Link to comment
Share on other sites

October has me wondering if it will be busy since the heat potential in the western carb is so darn high. Atmospheric factors to aiding and suppressing convection aside...that is a good area to have high heat potential since fronts push south and wash out heading into that area.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

October has me wondering if it will be busy since the heat potential in the western carb is so darn high. Atmospheric factors to aiding and suppressing convection aside...that is a good area to have high heat potential since fronts push south and wash out heading into that area.

Good thoughts, Mid October seems like the time for a hybrid

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well I don't mean to go "there"...just saying perhaps if atmospheric conditions allow...it could be fairly active.

That settles it folks, scooter says lock in a 1635/octobomb hybrid. :P

In all seriousness though, really glad there's at least some chances being hinted at in the coming weeks, watching tropical activity is all that gets me through the wx boredom of late summer and fall... Late summer has not been kind.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...