Typhoon Tip Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 There or hints in the operational runs that the Caribbean may organize a system over the next few days (less than a week). Some more obvious than others. There is currently a broad area of modestly depressed surface pressure, with disorganized areas of the convection serving more to annoy fishing expeditions more than anything else, but given some time and the fact the U/A is slated to become gradually more conducive, it could be an area to watch. There is also some impressive TW over Africa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 14, 2013 Share Posted August 14, 2013 There or hints in the operational runs that the Caribbean may organize a system over the next few days (less than a week). Some more obvious than others. There is currently a broad area of modestly depressed surface pressure, with disorganized areas of the convection serving more to annoy fishing expeditions more than anything else, but given some time and the fact the U/A is slated to become gradually more conducive, it could be an area to watch. There is also some impressive TW over Africa. Invest 92L (Gulf Disturbance) and Invest93L (African Wave) appear likely to develop, the 2013 Hurricane Season may begin right on schedule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 14, 2013 Share Posted August 14, 2013 Invest 92L (Gulf Disturbance) and Invest93L (African Wave) appear likely to develop, the 2013 Hurricane Season may begin right on schedule. Well the "peak" of the season is beginning, sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 14, 2013 Share Posted August 14, 2013 Invest 92L (Gulf Disturbance) and Invest93L (African Wave) appear likely to develop, the 2013 Hurricane Season may begin right on schedule. Not sure what that means; the season begins on June 1. Having said that ... if what you really meant was, it may ramp up during the greatest normal frequency, indeed... And, things can ramp up in a hurry. In 1995, the season was so-so impressive until August, with tropical storm status TCs in July, and Allison in June. Then all hell broke loose. I wrote about this a while ago in this thread; something happened that year that washed over the entire Basin all at once and replaced it with a more favorable environment for genesis overall -- anything out there at the time with potential was quickly a TC and August was spectacular. At one point there were 4 concurrent TCs. I'm still tending to lean toward less frequency this year than currently forecast, but it is also forecast to be active enough that even with a bit less you still got a decent season. The primary reason for that is that the frequency of TW coming off Africa is not that high. Perhaps that will change, but until it does, the intuitive conclusion is that without seed their is less growth. Time will tell. I think too much is given to frequency anyway. You only need one to be a disaster. 1992 was a weak year, and we all know what happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted August 15, 2013 Share Posted August 15, 2013 I'm surprised that there's no mention of TS Erin. Looks like a recurve with the WAR moving in but you never know. We'll know in a week or so I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 15, 2013 Share Posted August 15, 2013 I'm surprised that there's no mention of TS Erin. Looks like a recurve with the WAR moving in but you never know. We'll know in a week or so I guess. it'll be dead before long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted August 15, 2013 Share Posted August 15, 2013 it'll be dead before long Probably. It looks like it has a better chance than Dorian did but I'm not too excited. It's still early in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 15, 2013 Author Share Posted August 15, 2013 Too much Saharan dry air in the way. Poof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 15, 2013 Share Posted August 15, 2013 Probably. It looks like it has a better chance than Dorian did but I'm not too excited. It's still early in the game. the environment to its NW is horrible. it would have to slide WSW for several days to stand a chance i think. or be a very formidable storm that could survive the harassing its about to take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 16, 2013 Author Share Posted August 16, 2013 GFS ramps up the Canes as we move forward . Good to see http://twitter.com/capecodweather/status/368414595490140163/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 GFS ramps up the Canes as we move forward . Good to see http://twitter.com/capecodweather/status/368414595490140163/photo/1 Looks like multiple chances at the 384hr mark. Not probably reality, but it's a good sign none the less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 17, 2013 Share Posted August 17, 2013 metherb...raise you one (time sensitive) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HalloweenGale Posted August 19, 2013 Share Posted August 19, 2013 22 years ago today. Hurricane Bob made landfall at Block Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 19, 2013 Author Share Posted August 19, 2013 Canes and lots of them on the GFS. We need a deep trough over the Midwest though. Hopefully that changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 19, 2013 Share Posted August 19, 2013 Canes and lots of them on the GFS. We need a deep trough over the Midwest though. Hopefully that changes We need a deep cane over the tropics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted August 19, 2013 Share Posted August 19, 2013 We need a deep cane over the tropics. It looks like an active (or more active) period coming up. After 9/1 we're really in the heart of the season so hopefully there will be something. How about that cluster in the pacific...imagine that in the Atlantic? That would be fun trying to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted August 20, 2013 Share Posted August 20, 2013 The tropics have been incapable of sustaining a non decoupled (stacked) tropical storm or hurricane for more than a day outside of mid latitude recurve's . Its been pathetic for a while there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 20, 2013 Share Posted August 20, 2013 The tropics have been incapable of sustaining a non decoupled (stacked) tropical storm or hurricane for more than a day outside of mid latitude recurve's . Its been pathetic for a while there. Yup. Waiting on something to flash over the basin that ignites action Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 20, 2013 Author Share Posted August 20, 2013 Matt Noyes @MattNoyesNECN9h Imagine '38 again: 50% of all trees on your & surrounding streets blown across them. How long to cut your way out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 20, 2013 Share Posted August 20, 2013 MJO/climatology suggest a pretty dramatic upswing in tropical activity next 1-3 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 20, 2013 Author Share Posted August 20, 2013 Matt Noyes @MattNoyesNECN38m Simply repeating hurricane history will be unseen catastrophe for new generation of New Englanders http://mnoy.es/1amjeHa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 20, 2013 Share Posted August 20, 2013 MJO/climatology suggest a pretty dramatic upswing in tropical activity next 1-3 weeks. courtesy: Kyle MacRitchie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted August 20, 2013 Share Posted August 20, 2013 Matt Noyes @MattNoyesNECN9h Imagine '38 again: 50% of all trees on your & surrounding streets blown across them. How long to cut your way out? Some estimates put tree damge in New England and NY at over 2 billion! Interesting historical map. http://www.foresthistory.org/images/blog/1938TimberBlowdownMap.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 20, 2013 Share Posted August 20, 2013 despite all the calls for activity to increase, the Atlantic basin looks awfully dead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 20, 2013 Share Posted August 20, 2013 despite all the calls for activity to increase, the Atlantic basin looks awfully dead Seems like it's a good week away from anything TBH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted August 20, 2013 Share Posted August 20, 2013 It'll become more active but any easterly wave is going to encounter dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted August 20, 2013 Share Posted August 20, 2013 Alright well lets see if anything in the atlantic can amount to more than a tilt'd mess w mlc/llc not stacked like majority last few years # tropicboringforlastfewyrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 20, 2013 Share Posted August 20, 2013 despite all the calls for activity to increase, the Atlantic basin looks awfully dead why bold and large font? are you yelling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 20, 2013 Share Posted August 20, 2013 why bold and large font? are you yelling? yes, I'm mad as hell-where's my Cat 5 into New Haven that I was promised this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted August 20, 2013 Share Posted August 20, 2013 Some estimates put tree damge in New England and NY at over 2 billion! Interesting historical map. http://www.foresthistory.org/images/blog/1938TimberBlowdownMap.jpg Thanks for posting that. Some of the "no report" areas in western Maine, particularly in the Rangeley country, had considerable blowdown in 1938 (and some more in 1944), though far less than points west and southwest. There's considerable acreage up that way holding 70+ yr old spruce-fir stands as a result of the storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.