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Tropical Disco 2013 SNE

Damage In Tolland

By Damage In Tolland,
in New England

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CapturedNature

CapturedNature

Posted
Posted

:thumbsup:

 

MA is no better, I just think we handle it better when disasters do happen.

 

I agree...I saw that first hand in Irene when bordering communities had far fewer power outages than communities in CT did.  Different standards lead to different results.

 

I agree though...we're in for a world of hurt when the next actual one hits and I can old hope that Irene and Oct. '11 helped more people prepare or at least think about what they need.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Boston isn't very vulnerable to hurricanes. Their highest tides have always been in Nor' Easters.

 

Imo, they are exposed and vulnerable to wind impacts, the likes of which are both possible, but yet to be tested.  They just have not had to deal with anything as excessive as 1938.  The Boston city sky-line in 1938 did not have 40 story towers.  I don't mean to preach -- just voicing an opinion.    

 

Blue Hill is 635' in elevation; many of the high rises, or even higher profiled structures in the city boast 2/3rds of that elevation.  27 structures exceed 400', according to Wiki. I happen to know off hand that the John Hancock tower is just under 800' at 790.  

 

During the Long Island Express event of 1938, the Hill sustained an incredible 120+mph wind (and had one momentary gust to 185mph!!).  Granted, Blue Hill is a bit west of the city, and it is entirely plausible that a narrow jet just happened to catch them.  Having said that, and considering all other contingencies, there is nothing that says such an event could not target the city, its self, and one can (or perhaps "should") only wonder what might happen if these modern monoliths were to stand defiant to that kind of wind.

 

I am taken in memory back to May 13, 1980, Kalamazoo Michigan.  An F3 tornado went right through the heart of downtown.  I lived a mere 6 standard city blocks S of the track of the twister.  The storm arrived and left in less than 5 minutes.   All,  ALL of the buildings over 10 stories in altitude had ALL of their windows blown out, and the contents of the buildings innards were heavily eviscerated down to the streets below them.   I don't believe the F3 damage took place around those taller buildings, but a school that was made of brick and steel was leveled less than a half mile from where taller buildings were located.   

 

I am thinking about that event, and then trying to imagine going forward, a scenario like 1938 drilling 120+mph wind normally into those tall structures amid downtown Boston. Oh good christ.  To mention, wind redirecting with all kind of emergent processes not known because such a scenario has obviously never been tested.  

 

I think from a tidal perspective ... yeah, you are absolutely right.  But I think there is potential for a wind scenario that could get particularly scary.   Can you imagine being in downtown Boston with 120mph sustained winds hitting those building from mid-drift on up?   

 

'Course, we always have historic nor'easters for Boston tides ;)

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

A bit OT, but BOS dodged a bullet in the big Feb 2010 windstorm that struck NE MA and srn NH and ME. What do I mean by that? Well, Walt Drag mentioned Boston harbor high tide actually had a record high surge move in during low tide..basically there was little in the way of a low tide. IIRC, this beat out the blizzard of '78 surge.  Recall the Feb 2010 wind event came from low pressure that pivoted WNW into NE MA and srn NH. This helped bring the water west into Boston Harbor...thankfully it was during low tide. If someone can look back at the AFD for the morning of 2/26/10...you probably could find it

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SJonesWX

SJonesWX

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Posted

A bit OT, but BOS dodged a bullet in the big Feb 2010 windstorm that struck NE MA and srn NH and ME. What do I mean by that? Well, Walt Drag mentioned Boston harbor high tide actually had a record high surge move in during low tide..basically there was little in the way of a low tide. IIRC, this beat out the blizzard of '78 surge.  Recall the Feb 2010 wind event came from low pressure that pivoted WNW into NE MA and srn NH. This helped bring the water west into Boston Harbor...thankfully it was during low tide. If someone can look back at the AFD for the morning of 2/26/10...you probably could find it

didnt find the AFD, but found a pretty good presentation. i can't understand 90% of the content, but it is still interesting

cstar.cestm.albany.edu/nrow/NROWXII/Hanes.ppt.pptx'>cstar.cestm.albany.edu/nrow/NROWXII/Hanes.ppt.pptx

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CapturedNature

CapturedNature

Posted
Posted

A bit OT, but BOS dodged a bullet in the big Feb 2010 windstorm that struck NE MA and srn NH and ME. What do I mean by that? Well, Walt Drag mentioned Boston harbor high tide actually had a record high surge move in during low tide..basically there was little in the way of a low tide. IIRC, this beat out the blizzard of '78 surge.  Recall the Feb 2010 wind event came from low pressure that pivoted WNW into NE MA and srn NH. This helped bring the water west into Boston Harbor...thankfully it was during low tide. If someone can look back at the AFD for the morning of 2/26/10...you probably could find it

 

Is this what you were looking for?

 

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=AFDBOX&e=201002260953

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ma blizzard

ma blizzard

Posted
Posted

A January '98 in SNE would be pretty horrible due to population difference. The Dec '08 icestorm was really really close to being a total catastrophe for ORH...but they lucked out in that half of the city wasn't really affected, so the 20% or so of the grid that went down inside the city was able to get back online relatively quickly (within 3-4 days)...something that would have been impossible if the outages were more like 80%.

I can only imagine what something like that setup except about 3F colder would have done...not only the rest of ORH under 650 feet elevation, but pretty much all of metro-west Boston 'burbs too and maybe even talking about getting into the HFD region.

Still, nothing can probably match the chaos another Carol or '38 would cause.

imho, the nov 1921 ice storm would be the closest example of a dec 08 caliber ice storm but colder and taking place over a larger region.

http://www.hope1842.com/icestorm1921.html

http://wintercenter.homestead.com/photonov1921.html

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Quincy

Quincy

Posted
Posted

A bit OT, but BOS dodged a bullet in the big Feb 2010 windstorm that struck NE MA and srn NH and ME. What do I mean by that? Well, Walt Drag mentioned Boston harbor high tide actually had a record high surge move in during low tide..basically there was little in the way of a low tide. IIRC, this beat out the blizzard of '78 surge.  Recall the Feb 2010 wind event came from low pressure that pivoted WNW into NE MA and srn NH. This helped bring the water west into Boston Harbor...thankfully it was during low tide. If someone can look back at the AFD for the morning of 2/26/10...you probably could find it

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA

115 PM EST FRI FEB 26 2010

...

WE WILL POST IN THE LSR SHORTLY THE 1048 PM EVENTUAL STORM TIDE THAT
OCCURRED 2 HOURS AFTER THE PREDICTED HIGH TIDE /BOS NOS TIDE GAGE/ AS
THE FIRST STORM TIDE OF 12.26 FT AT 818 PM EST STARTED LOWERING BUT AT 
10 PM THE 11 FT TIDE DID AN ABOUT FACE AND ROSE 1.3 FT TO THE HIGHEST
TIDE OF THE NIGHT AT 1048 PM OF 12.31 FT...THIS AT THE SAME TIME THAT
WIND STRESS INCREASED DRAMATICALLY FROM PVC TO BOSTON NORTHWARD TO
LWM WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 35-40 KNOTS AND GUSTS OF 47 TO 63 KTS! THE
RESULTANT SURGE OF 5.97 FEET AT 1048 PM WAS THE LARGEST COASTAL FLOOD
RELATED SURGE THAT ANY OF US RECALL HERE IN BOSTON SINCE PRIOR TO THE
BLIZZARD OF 78. COINCIDENTALLY...THE BOSTON LOGAN ONSHORE WIND PEAKED
AT 1047 PM WITH A GUST TO 52 KNOTS WITH A PEAK SUSTAINED WIND OF 41
KNOTS AT 1043 PM EST.
 
AS THIS SECOND BUMP IN THE TIDE CYCLE .. SOMETIMES SEEN IN THE
UPPER END OF NARR BAY.. OCCURRED...REPORTS OF COASTAL FLOODING
INCREASED TOWARD 11 PM. ALL THIS FLOODING ON A NORMAL TIDE OF 9.2
FT... BUT THE 6 FT SURGE FROM OUR VANTAGE POINT WAS ASTOUNDING!
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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA

115 PM EST FRI FEB 26 2010

...

WE WILL POST IN THE LSR SHORTLY THE 1048 PM EVENTUAL STORM TIDE THAT
OCCURRED 2 HOURS AFTER THE PREDICTED HIGH TIDE /BOS NOS TIDE GAGE/ AS
THE FIRST STORM TIDE OF 12.26 FT AT 818 PM EST STARTED LOWERING BUT AT 
10 PM THE 11 FT TIDE DID AN ABOUT FACE AND ROSE 1.3 FT TO THE HIGHEST
TIDE OF THE NIGHT AT 1048 PM OF 12.31 FT...THIS AT THE SAME TIME THAT
WIND STRESS INCREASED DRAMATICALLY FROM PVC TO BOSTON NORTHWARD TO
LWM WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 35-40 KNOTS AND GUSTS OF 47 TO 63 KTS! THE
RESULTANT SURGE OF 5.97 FEET AT 1048 PM WAS THE LARGEST COASTAL FLOOD
RELATED SURGE THAT ANY OF US RECALL HERE IN BOSTON SINCE PRIOR TO THE
BLIZZARD OF 78. COINCIDENTALLY...THE BOSTON LOGAN ONSHORE WIND PEAKED
AT 1047 PM WITH A GUST TO 52 KNOTS WITH A PEAK SUSTAINED WIND OF 41
KNOTS AT 1043 PM EST.
 
AS THIS SECOND BUMP IN THE TIDE CYCLE .. SOMETIMES SEEN IN THE
UPPER END OF NARR BAY.. OCCURRED...REPORTS OF COASTAL FLOODING
INCREASED TOWARD 11 PM. ALL THIS FLOODING ON A NORMAL TIDE OF 9.2
FT... BUT THE 6 FT SURGE FROM OUR VANTAGE POINT WAS ASTOUNDING!

 

Oh sorry, didn't see your post. Yeah, pretty incredible.

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nzucker

nzucker

Posted
Posted

Imo, they are exposed and vulnerable to wind impacts, the likes of which are both possible, but yet to be tested.  They just have not had to deal with anything as excessive as 1938.  The Boston city sky-line in 1938 did not have 40 story towers.  I don't mean to preach -- just voicing an opinion.    

 

Blue Hill is 635' in elevation; many of the high rises, or even higher profiled structures in the city boast 2/3rds of that elevation.  27 structures exceed 400', according to Wiki. I happen to know off hand that the John Hancock tower is just under 800' at 790.  

 

During the Long Island Express event of 1938, the Hill sustained an incredible 120+mph wind (and had one momentary gust to 185mph!!).  Granted, Blue Hill is a bit west of the city, and it is entirely plausible that a narrow jet just happened to catch them.  Having said that, and considering all other contingencies, there is nothing that says such an event could not target the city, its self, and one can (or perhaps "should") only wonder what might happen if these modern monoliths were to stand defiant to that kind of wind.

 

I am taken in memory back to May 13, 1980, Kalamazoo Michigan.  An F3 tornado went right through the heart of downtown.  I lived a mere 6 standard city blocks S of the track of the twister.  The storm arrived and left in less than 5 minutes.   All,  ALL of the buildings over 10 stories in altitude had ALL of their windows blown out, and the contents of the buildings innards were heavily eviscerated down to the streets below them.   I don't believe the F3 damage took place around those taller buildings, but a school that was made of brick and steel was leveled less than a half mile from where taller buildings were located.   

 

I am thinking about that event, and then trying to imagine going forward, a scenario like 1938 drilling 120+mph wind normally into those tall structures amid downtown Boston. Oh good christ.  To mention, wind redirecting with all kind of emergent processes not known because such a scenario has obviously never been tested.  

 

I think from a tidal perspective ... yeah, you are absolutely right.  But I think there is potential for a wind scenario that could get particularly scary.   Can you imagine being in downtown Boston with 120mph sustained winds hitting those building from mid-drift on up?   

 

'Course, we always have historic nor'easters for Boston tides ;)

Some people think those Blue Hill numbers are exaggerated or inaccurate...are there any surrounding obs that corroborate 125mph sustained winds with gusts in the 180mph range? I know the 1938/LI Express was a Category 3 hurricane, but that seems a bit extreme given how far from the center Blue Hill is. 

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted

yep. and i also think a lot of people really don't understand how f-ed we will be when it happens. i think most people here on the Cape equate "hurricane" to things like Bertha, Floyd, Edouard, Earl, Irene, Sandy etc....which really were just meh events here...and/or events that trended weaker/near miss in the final 24 hours.

 

I suppose for CT and W MA, Irene was a pretty big deal - and they had the Oct snowstorm that killed power for quite a long time...but in terms of a widespread, regional crippling...most people have no concept of what that means. 

 

This is going to be a significant issue for the NWS. How do you override pubic perception and properly convey the threat?

 

I think this is why so much of the recent focus in on impact based forecasting. Tell people what to expect as far as extent of tree damage or coastal flooding goes a lot farther than telling them Hurricane TBD is headed north towards MTP with winds of 100 mph.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted

Boston isn't very vulnerable to hurricanes. Their highest tides have always been in Nor' Easters.

 

And it makes total sense with the preferred wind direction being NE. A hurricane threat is going to protract the duration of NE winds if the storm also passes W of BOS and produces a wind threat.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

This is going to be a significant issue for the NWS. How do you override pubic perception and properly convey the threat?

I think this is why so much of the recent focus in on impact based forecasting. Tell people what to expect as far as extent of tree damage or coastal flooding goes a lot farther than telling them Hurricane TBD is headed north towards MTP with winds of 100 mph.

A cat 2/3 moving north toward NYC/SNE would produce such an insane media frenzy I imagine you'd have to be in a coma not to know what is coming. We're talking about wall-to-wall network coverage of unprecedented proportions.

I don't think getting the impacts out will be a problem for the NWS... The bigger issue will be disseminating information in a cogent/timely way through an absolute circus of media coverage.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted

A cat 2/3 moving north toward NYC/SNE would produce such an insane media frenzy I imagine you'd have to be in a coma not to know what is coming. We're talking about wall-to-wall network coverage of unprecedented proportions.

I don't think getting the impacts out will be a problem for the NWS... The bigger issue will be disseminating information in a cogent/timely way through an absolute circus of media coverage.

 

I do worry about the relative inactivity regarding the tropics around SNE though. I mean that 24/7 news cycle you mention doesn't help at all. You hear "Sandy, Sandy, Sandy" but the majority of SNE says, "what's the big deal?" It's that mentality that will get people into trouble if we see another LI Express track. You are right that there will be a TON of bad reporting to sift through to get the real pertinent information though.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted

Completely off the rails, I know, but the MWR article on the 1921 ice storm has some interesting tidbits (http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/mwr/049/mwr-049-11-0612a.pdf).

 

Pretty much as you would expect for a big New England ice event, roughly 1035 high situated over the St. Lawrence, 998 mb low over VA, with baggy isobaric pattern south of ACK. Recipe for 2-4" of liquid, thunderstorms with IP and FZRA, etc.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

Completely off the rails, I know, but the MWR article on the 1921 ice storm has some interesting tidbits (http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/mwr/049/mwr-049-11-0612a.pdf).

 

Pretty much as you would expect for a big New England ice event, roughly 1035 high situated over the St. Lawrence, 998 mb low over VA, with baggy isobaric pattern south of ACK. Recipe for 2-4" of liquid, thunderstorms with IP and FZRA, etc.

The amazing part was the date, Thanksgiving is really early for that type of storm.

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