Tropical Disco 2013 SNE

[CoastalWx]

i'll myself for this one....but i do wonder about the timing on this and our odds.

 

i haven't seen the ec ens at day 10-16 but both the gfs and cmc ensemble mean and the CFS weeklies start to slowly increase heights off to our NE toward the end of the respective outputs...like in the 3rd week of august.

 

that would be about 30 days from when the current regime took hold, which unscientifically feels about right.  

 

having that ridge build is something to pay attention to, for the east coast. 

 

Paul Roundy from SUNY Albany has an experimental product that actually worked fairly well this winter. At 300mb it builds a ridge to our east while a trough forms over the OV. This is for early Sept.

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/analogs/analogs.html

[Tropopause_Fold]

Paul Roundy from SUNY Albany has an experimental product that actually worked fairly well this winter. At 300mb it builds a ridge to our east while a trough forms over the OV. This is for early Sept.

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/analogs/analogs.html

that's a cool product. his site has some really good stuff. 

[CoastalWx]

that's a cool product. his site has some really good stuff. 

 

Yeah the SUNY Albany site has some good stuff. Their MJO stuff is good because they have products that filter out the variables. So, it allows you to see what's driving it and/or if models like the GFS are too bullish or bearish with it. Mike Ventrice actually works here now and he has some great stuff on the tropics.   http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/

[N. OF PIKE]

Always a good thing when phil walks up to the ticket booth

[Tropopause_Fold]

that's a cool product. his site has some really good stuff. 

and that 300 mb set-up for OV / NE is pretty close to mean for some of the "good" events. actually even the higher heights out west of Hudson Bay in the western 2/3rds of canada match pretty well. 

[Tropopause_Fold]

Yeah the SUNY Albany site has some good stuff. Their MJO stuff is good because they have products that filter out the variables. So, it allows you to see what's driving it and/or if models like the GFS are too bullish or bearish with it. Mike Ventrice actually works here now and he has some great stuff on the tropics.   http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/

ha...his email address is @weather.com - is that your's too? 

[CoastalWx]

ha...his email address is @weather.com - is that your's too? 

 

Well there are two, both kind of redundant. I try not to use weather.com...lol.

[ORH_wxman]

and that 300 mb set-up for OV / NE is pretty close to mean for some of the "good" events. actually even the higher heights out west of Hudson Bay in the western 2/3rds of canada match pretty well. 

 

 

[Tropopause_Fold]

deservingly so.

[ORH_wxman]

deservingly so.

 

Well I'll def be one of the first down to the Cape if there's a threat. It seems like if everything goes well, there's a window in late August and early September. I'm always pessimistic though until we actually have something really concrete to follow. I guess a 22 year long hurricane drought will do that.

 

We've certainly dodged a ton of bullets in recent years in southeastern MA. Eventually that luck will run out.

[CoastalWx]

Well I'll def be one of the first down to the Cape if there's a threat. It seems like if everything goes well, there's a window in late August and early September. I'm always pessimistic though until we actually have something really concrete to follow. I guess a 22 year long hurricane drought will do that.

 

We've certainly dodged a ton of bullets in recent years in southeastern MA. Eventually that luck will run out.

 

What a stretch for storms....8/91 until 12/92. A hurricane and two mega coastal storms. I hate to think what the media would say if that occurred again...lol.

[ORH_wxman]

What a stretch for storms....8/91 until 12/92. A hurricane and two mega coastal storms. I hate to think what the media would say if that occurred again...lol.

 

You could even stretch it another 3 months to 3/93 for the Superstorm...not horrific up here but certainly another media hype blitz...it was hyped badly back then, I cannot imagine that storm now.  

 

 

I don't think many people realize just how vulnerable New England has been in the past to hurricanes because we are getting further and further removed from the 1938-1960 epic stretch of hurricanes in this region (5 hurricane landfalls in 22 years...versus 0 in our last 22 years). And even a lot of younger adults don't really remember Gloria in '85 through Dec '92 stretch.

[Brian5671]

A little weary down this way from Irene and Sandy.....I'd be happy with a boring stretch.  The beach area here will take years to recover to pre-Sandy levels...

[Tropopause_Fold]

You could even stretch it another 3 months to 3/93 for the Superstorm...not horrific up here but certainly another media hype blitz...it was hyped badly back then, I cannot imagine that storm now.  

 

 

I don't think many people realize just how vulnerable New England has been in the past to hurricanes because we are getting further and further removed from the 1938-1960 epic stretch of hurricanes in this region (5 hurricane landfalls in 22 years...versus 0 in our last 22 years). And even a lot of younger adults don't really remember Gloria in '85 through Dec '92 stretch.

yep. and i also think a lot of people really don't understand how f-ed we will be when it happens. i think most people here on the Cape equate "hurricane" to things like Bertha, Floyd, Edouard, Earl, Irene, Sandy etc....which really were just meh events here...and/or events that trended weaker/near miss in the final 24 hours.

 

I suppose for CT and W MA, Irene was a pretty big deal - and they had the Oct snowstorm that killed power for quite a long time...but in terms of a widespread, regional crippling...most people have no concept of what that means. 

[N. OF PIKE]

yep. and i also think a lot of people really don't understand how f-ed we will be when it happens. i think most people here on the Cape equate "hurricane" to things like Bertha, Floyd, Edouard, Earl, Irene, Sandy etc....which really were just meh events here...and/or events that trended weaker/near miss in the final 24 hours.

I suppose for CT and W MA, Irene was a pretty big deal - and they had the Oct snowstorm that killed power for quite a long time...but in terms of a widespread, regional crippling...most people have no concept of what that means.

I can see the cape taking a crippling w widespread flooding and wind damage but it would take something exceedingly rare to cripple BOS from a tropical system. Westerly ne to tan and over to plymouth ya but difficult north of there i think. Isolated and significant damage yes but widespread cat 1 winds for bos metro seems pretty impossible. (Not saying u were mentioning that) but just gauging to see if thats accurate. I mean if u get a 1938 i guess since i think bos reported 2 min sustain'd at 83 mph

[ORH_wxman]

I can see the cape taking a crippling w widespread flooding and wind damage but it would take something exceedingly rare to cripple BOS from a tropical system. Westerly ne to tan and over to plymouth ya but difficult north of there i think. Isolated and significant damage yes but widespread cat 1 winds for bos metro seems pretty impossible. (Not saying u were mentioning that) but just gauging to see if thats accurate. I mean if u get a 1938 100 miles east i guess

 

 

Boston isn't very vulnerable to hurricanes. Their highest tides have always been in Nor' Easters.

[CT Rain]

Boston isn't very vulnerable to hurricanes. Their highest tides have always been in Nor' Easters.

Definitely. Long Island sound is significantly more vulnerable than Boston simply because of geography. That said I think pickles is underestimating the amount of wind damage possible in BO'S through metro west from a string cat 1/weak cat 2 moving due north over say Narragansett Bay.

[Tropopause_Fold]

I can see the cape taking a crippling w widespread flooding and wind damage but it would take something exceedingly rare to cripple BOS from a tropical system. Westerly ne to tan and over to plymouth ya but difficult north of there i think. Isolated and significant damage yes but widespread cat 1 winds for bos metro seems pretty impossible. (Not saying u were mentioning that) but just gauging to see if thats accurate. I mean if u get a 1938 i guess since i think bos reported 2 min sustain'd at 83 mph

i'm just saying the region as a whole...when everything is added together and all the puzzle pieces to a what constitutes a humanitarian and natural disaster event are on the table.

 

no one particular area.

 

i think the combo of aged infrastructure, such heavy reliance on it, and very limited "institutional knowledge" of coping without it, is a "disaster" waiting to happen.

 

Carol was 60 years ago. there aren't that many people left in the region who were adults at that time...if you are in your 70s now...you probably remember that event...in your 80s/90s...you were responsible for something other than playing in a sandbox when those 54 storms hit.

 

the world has changed a lot since then...but some of the core infrastructure hasn't.

 

you read about past events leveling forests - and it's not just a few towns from an icestorm or a county or two from a snowstorm - but entire halves of states....you're entering a different realm of storms. 

[CoastalWx]

You could even stretch it another 3 months to 3/93 for the Superstorm...not horrific up here but certainly another media hype blitz...it was hyped badly back then, I cannot imagine that storm now.  

 

 

I don't think many people realize just how vulnerable New England has been in the past to hurricanes because we are getting further and further removed from the 1938-1960 epic stretch of hurricanes in this region (5 hurricane landfalls in 22 years...versus 0 in our last 22 years). And even a lot of younger adults don't really remember Gloria in '85 through Dec '92 stretch.

 

People should be afraid of the old regime of landfalling storms...not the new regime. it will come again.

[ORH_wxman]

i'm just saying the region as a whole...when everything is added together and all the puzzle pieces to a what constitutes a humanitarian and natural disaster event are on the table.

 

no one particular area.

 

i think the combo of aged infrastructure, such heavy reliance on it, and very limited "institutional knowledge" of coping without it, is a "disaster" waiting to happen.

 

Carol was 60 years ago. there aren't that many people left in the region who were adults at that time...if you are in your 70s now...you probably remember that event...in your 80s/90s...you were responsible for something other than playing in a sandbox when those 54 storms hit.

 

the world has changed a lot since then...but some of the core infrastructure hasn't.

 

you read about past events leveling forests - and it's not just a few towns from an icestorm or a county or two from a snowstorm - but entire halves of states....you're entering a different realm of storms. 

 

 

Yeah another Carol would be ridiculous now...nevermind a '38. Most people have no concept of how destructive that storm was, and with the way we rely on the power grid now (way more than in 1954)...its just a total disaster waiting to happen. Just look at what Sandy did in NYC metro with the grid and that was with significantly weaker winds.

[bobbutts]

Yeah another Carol would be ridiculous now...nevermind a '38. Most people have no concept of how destructive that storm was, and with the way we rely on the power grid now (way more than in 1954)...its just a total disaster waiting to happen. Just look at what Sandy did in NYC metro with the grid and that was with significantly weaker winds.

 

The level of tree destruction is pretty hard to fathom.  It wasn't just localized either.

[Brian5671]

People should be afraid of the old regime of landfalling storms...not the new regime. it will come again.

isn't the new regime similar to that of the old regime?  A +AMO?

[CoastalWx]

isn't the new regime similar to that of the old regime?  A +AMO?

 

Well there are similarities to the PDO and AMO, but it was more a reference to the cyclical nature of the frequency of landfalling storms.

[Baroclinic Zone]

CT infrastructure would be sent back to the Edison era.

[CT Rain]

CT infrastructure would be sent back to the Edison era.

 

lol probably

[tamarack]

you read about past events leveling forests - and it's not just a few towns from an icestorm or a county or two from a snowstorm - but entire halves of states....you're entering a different realm of storms. 

 

No ice storm is likely ever to cause the extent and severity of damage that came from a 1938 or even a Carol, but the 1998 event caused severe tree damage to some 4 million acres in NNE, most in Maine.  15 years later the impact is hardly visible to the untrained eye.  In fact, a frequently measured stand of oak-rich hardwoods about 10 miles NW of LEW which suffered 60% avg crown loss in 1998 had essentially rebuilt the crowns 10 years later.  However, folks running hardwood sawmills in central Maine 50 years from now will still be wondering why their lumber suffers so much degrade during the drying process - and no idea it stems from mini stress cracks as a result of being severely (if temporarily) bent over in Jan '98.

[Brian5671]

CT infrastructure would be sent back to the Edison era.

It already is.   Horrible infrastructure complicated by mostly above ground lines in a densely forested state--disaster if another 38, Carol or something stronger than Irene were to hit...

[Baroclinic Zone]

lol probably

 

 

It already is.   Horrible infrastructure complicated by mostly above ground lines in a densely forested state--disaster if another 38, Carol or something stronger than Irene were to hit...

 

 

 

MA is no better, I just think we handle it better when disasters do happen.

[ORH_wxman]

No ice storm is likely ever to cause the extent and severity of damage that came from a 1938 or even a Carol, but the 1998 event caused severe tree damage to some 4 million acres in NNE, most in Maine.  15 years later the impact is hardly visible to the untrained eye.  In fact, a frequently measured stand of oak-rich hardwoods about 10 miles NW of LEW which suffered 60% avg crown loss in 1998 had essentially rebuilt the crowns 10 years later.  However, folks running hardwood sawmills in central Maine 50 years from now will still be wondering why their lumber suffers so much degrade during the drying process - and no idea it stems from mini stress cracks as a result of being severely (if temporarily) bent over in Jan '98.

 

 

A January '98 in SNE would be pretty horrible due to population difference. The Dec '08 icestorm was really really close to being a total catastrophe for ORH...but they lucked out in that half of the city wasn't really affected, so the 20% or so of the grid that went down inside the city was able to get back online relatively quickly (within 3-4 days)...something that would have been impossible if the outages were more like 80%.

 

I can only imagine what something like that setup except about 3F colder would have done...not only the rest of ORH under 650 feet elevation, but pretty much all of metro-west Boston 'burbs too and maybe even talking about getting into the HFD region.

 

 

Still, nothing can probably match the chaos another Carol or '38 would cause.

[Typhoon Tip]

A January '98 in SNE would be pretty horrible due to population difference. The Dec '08 icestorm was really really close to being a total catastrophe for ORH...but they lucked out in that half of the city wasn't really affected, so the 20% or so of the grid that went down inside the city was able to get back online relatively quickly (within 3-4 days)...something that would have been impossible if the outages were more like 80%.

 

I can only imagine what something like that setup except about 3F colder would have done...not only the rest of ORH under 650 feet elevation, but pretty much all of metro-west Boston 'burbs too and maybe even talking about getting into the HFD region.

 

 

Still, nothing can probably match the chaos another Carol or '38 would cause.

 

Too mention, the total area impacted was an order of magnitude or more less in size.   Heh, kind of need a NESDIS for ice-storms, as far as the actual impact on people.

 

If a tree gets coated in ice and falls in the woods, is it an ice-storm ?