N. OF PIKE Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 There is always high pressure somewhere in the Atlantic Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 One thing w Dorian is that it will likely remain a rather small storm and these are notoriously difficult to forecast intensity wise, as well as be easier hamper'd by adverse conditions. if it was Larger i would have a bit more concern it would survive the treck to bahamas area as something formidable ( it still could). One thing (obviously) its size has going for it, is it could intensify rapidly if conditions warrant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 One thing w Dorian is that it will likely remain a rather small storm and these are notoriously difficult to forecast intensity wise, as well as be easier hamper'd by adverse conditions. if it was Larger i would have a bit more concern it would survive the treck to bahamas area as something formidable ( it still could). One thing (obviously) its size has going for it, is it could intensify rapidly if conditions warrant Not only that but it's much easier to complete eyewall replacement cycles when you have a small compact core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Nhc says not much change at 11. Looks worse to me. Nhc would prob wait to see if it looks like crap at 5 before changing intensity. Nhc mentions weakening within next 24 hrs and then restregthening potential if "core survives intact". Seems like they are leavin door open for this to fall Apart by tomm am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Strong ridge on 12z gfs. Between potential weakening in next 24 hrs and a stronger ridge on 12z gfs u gotta wonder if dorian makes it N of puerto rico Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Strong ridge on 12z gfs. Between potential weakening in next 24 hrs and a stronger ridge on 12z gfs u gotta wonder if dorian makes it N of puerto rico 12z GGEM brings "Dorian" thru the Strait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 I could see a Donna-like track happening, if there is anything TO track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Lets watch the llc and mlc decouple and cripple this things spine so it cant really do much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 27, 2013 Share Posted July 27, 2013 surprised theres not much talk about 90L actually doesnt look to bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted July 27, 2013 Share Posted July 27, 2013 surprised theres not much talk about 90L actually doesnt look to bad Limited time for development/don't want to jinx it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted July 27, 2013 Share Posted July 27, 2013 surprised theres not much talk about 90L actually doesnt look to bad Are u also "storm4u" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 28, 2013 Share Posted July 28, 2013 ya good call Are u also "storm4u" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 2, 2013 Share Posted August 2, 2013 still early but tropics quiet. Also seems like there is alot of dry air in the ITCZ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted August 2, 2013 Share Posted August 2, 2013 still early but tropics quiet. Also seems like there is alot of dry air in the ITCZ Meh, don't see any reason to worry about a junk season for another couple weeks, and even then, it only really takes one good storm in the right place to make a season memorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted August 2, 2013 Share Posted August 2, 2013 Noyes says don't give up yet: Matt Noyes @MattNoyesNECN 1h -Updated Colo. State Hurricane Forecast puts chance of Southern NewEng hurricane landfall 2-3% above norm. 10% chc MA/CT -Worth noting, although 10% doesn't sound like much chance, the elevation over the norm of 7% actually is somewhat significant -One reason for "above normal" chance of impact hinges on continuing active cycle of ocean temp/salinity changes -Another reason for "above normal" chance is the governing atmospheric pattern and steering winds Matt Noyes @MattNoyesNECN 1h For now, the tropics remain quiet owing to combo of dry Saharan air & perhaps more importantly, 20-40 knots of wind shear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HalloweenGale Posted August 3, 2013 Share Posted August 3, 2013 I heard the chains rattling, looks like Dorian is back, but is just a TD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 3, 2013 Share Posted August 3, 2013 need something strong to come off of africa and prime the pump so-to-speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 3, 2013 Share Posted August 3, 2013 need something strong to come off of africa and prime the pump so-to-speak. I think we are going to be waiting a while for anything interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 3, 2013 Share Posted August 3, 2013 I think we are going to be waiting a while for anything interesting. yep. 2nd half of the month at the earliest i think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 3, 2013 Share Posted August 3, 2013 yep. 2nd half of the month at the earliest i think. Might be one of those things where we turn the switch on and gets busy rather quickly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted August 3, 2013 Share Posted August 3, 2013 In main trop thread some have stats favoring a strong hurr hit for mainland us this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 4, 2013 Share Posted August 4, 2013 should we start a thread about a threat 816 hours away.... Odviously not but just goes to show the pattern favors the east coast! http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=noat&MODELL=cfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=pslv&HH=816&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 4, 2013 Share Posted August 4, 2013 "In its 2013 Atlantic hurricane season outlook issued today, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Centeris forecasting an active or extremely active season this year." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 4, 2013 Share Posted August 4, 2013 should we start a thread about a threat 816 hours away.... Odviously not but just goes to show the pattern favors the east coast! http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=noat&MODELL=cfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=pslv&HH=816&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= CAUTION! CARE SHOULD BE USED WHEN USING THIS MODEL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted August 4, 2013 Share Posted August 4, 2013 "In its 2013 Atlantic hurricane season outlook issued today, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Centeris forecasting an active or extremely active season this year." Lol hey just because its looking to stay slow for a little while longer doesn't meant it can't get extremely active once things start up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 6, 2013 Share Posted August 6, 2013 Lol hey just because its looking to stay slow for a little while longer doesn't meant it can't get extremely active once things start up. Yeah I'm just funnin' I remember 1995, which turned out a record year to that date, had very little activity between June 1 and the end of July, then things ramped up very quickly. Still, I've been monitoring the frequency of important waves coming off Africa, and it has been quite minimal. The mean of the deep layer has not been impressively bad, which lends my thinking to the lack of action being the lack of spin coming off that continent. During the first week of 1995's big wind up there were TCs that erupted all quadrants, unilaterally -- the whole Basin just went nuts real fast. That seemed to suggest that there was something about the overall circulation envelopment that suddenly click favorable, and anything with any potential at all suddenly went nuts. Not sure what it is that is inhibiting things now, but... perhaps the "zygotes" (using that poetically) are not as prolific as originally thought. That's the CV season so far -- again, too early to preclude a better result. 2005's epic record breaking season really had two distinct regions: CV developing in earnest and recurving early, versus storms developing from either CV waves that "snuck" west before developing, or book-end vorticies that went to town. The CV storms that year were prolific, but most weren't as influential as far west as the Americas as those home growns were; some were, however. But this is a different discussion -- frequency -vs- impact via source. Complicated. But this year seems like there's just nothing out there that can so far. My personal thinking is that that home growns don't have any zygotes. And the CVs are in wait of some ensemble line injection from off Africa. I'm leaning toward a bust. It is important to remember though, one system that manages to make the trek (or home grown) that is perfectly timed and impacting makes all the difference. There's two discussions at hand for that; one is whether there is an active season, and one that relates to whether the particular season delivered anything at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 6, 2013 Share Posted August 6, 2013 I think we'll see an uptick over the next 2-3 weeks. Once the dry air abates off of Africa, we should see conditions become more favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 6, 2013 Share Posted August 6, 2013 I think we'll see an uptick over the next 2-3 weeks. Once the dry air abates off of Africa, we should see conditions become more favorable. i agree. starting to see those phantom TCs (some of which obviously don't end up as phantom either) showing up now on the GFS each run. that, for me, tends to be the signal that we are about to turn it on. climo peak is still 30+ days away. the season will end up well above climo norm, imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 6, 2013 Share Posted August 6, 2013 i agree. starting to see those phantom TCs (some of which obviously don't end up as phantom either) showing up now on the GFS each run. that, for me, tends to be the signal that we are about to turn it on. climo peak is still 30+ days away. the season will end up well above climo norm, imho. Yep, the globals picking up activity during what normally is a ramping up time dictated by climo is a good sign. Also, the MJO and CCKW should slowly move east and also create an environment that favors development too, especially later in the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 6, 2013 Share Posted August 6, 2013 Yep, the globals picking up activity during what normally is a ramping up time dictated by climo is a good sign. Also, the MJO and CCKW should slowly move east and also create an environment that favors development too, especially later in the month. i'll myself for this one....but i do wonder about the timing on this and our odds. i haven't seen the ec ens at day 10-16 but both the gfs and cmc ensemble mean and the CFS weeklies start to slowly increase heights off to our NE toward the end of the respective outputs...like in the 3rd week of august. that would be about 30 days from when the current regime took hold, which unscientifically feels about right. having that ridge build is something to pay attention to, for the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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