N. OF PIKE Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 I would love to see the equivilant of s fl hurr wilma strength storm on sne. Their is something about the building euphoria/magic before such a awesome display of power. What a awesome day of wx to experience, gusts 100-110 are prob close to the max id want to experience even inside a structure. I was outside my parents front door and it was a completely protected corridor with stone wall and facing nne but watching the difference between " very strong winds" 50-60 mph winds and 90+ winds was nite and day . Every big gust would send trees bending horizontal and it makes me just wonder how absolutely horrifying it must be to be in the path of something with much stronger winds..i.e strong tornado Every decade that passes i wonder if florida (specifically the most affluent stretch of the coast from west palm beach to miami) is somehow really thhaaat low of a shot to get hit by a strong 4 or 5 directly. They have gone 84 years. Seems odd to me. Seems very lucky to the point of being strange same with the keys really, no cat 4's/5's since when labor day foreer ago? My point is this country would see a death toll exponentially higher (w keys hit) than weve seen or much costlier (with gold coast hit) and the area seems curiously lucky for 75+ years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 I wouldn't see a reason not to believe that part of FL would experience a Category 4 or 5. I think anywhere down in that area is susceptible to experience something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 I would love to see the equivilant of s fl hurr wilma strength storm on sne. Their is something about the building euphoria/magic before such a awesome display of power. What a awesome day of wx to experience, gusts 100-110 are prob close to the max id want to experience even inside a structure. I was outside my parents front door and it was a completely protected corridor with stone wall and facing nne but watching the difference between " very strong winds" 50-60 mph winds and 90+ winds was nite and day . Every big gust would send trees bending horizontal and it makes me just wonder how absolutely horrifying it must be to be in the path of something with much stronger winds..i.e strong tornado Every decade that passes i wonder if florida (specifically the most affluent stretch of the coast from west palm beach to miami) is somehow really thhaaat low of a shot to get hit by a strong 4 or 5 directly. They have gone 84 years. Seems odd to me. Seems very lucky to the point of being strange same with the keys really, no cat 4's/5's since when labor day foreer ago? My point is this country would see a death toll exponentially higher (w keys hit) than weve seen or much costlier (with gold coast hit) and the area seems curiously lucky for 75+ years Oh yeah definitely, if a population center goes a lifetime without seeing a certain calibre of wx event people will be caught unprepared and probably won't take the threat as seriously as they should. It's just human nature to say, "oh that doesn't happen here, it'll be fine." The same thing could very likely happen in sne with a major hurricane strike, lots of development and growth of population that has no experience with a storm that powerful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Oh yeah definitely, if a population center goes a lifetime without seeing a certain calibre of wx event people will be caught unprepared and probably won't take the threat as seriously as they should. It's just human nature to say, "oh that doesn't happen here, it'll be fine." The same thing could very likely happen in sne with a major hurricane strike, lots of development and growth of population that has no experience with a storm that powerful. Exactly. With the 1938 population gradually dwindling away, most people don't realize that we're susceptible to major hurricanes here. Irene wasn't even a hurricane at landfall... the public is completely unprepared for a cat 3 type storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 I wouldn't see a reason not to believe that part of FL would experience a Category 4 or 5. I think anywhere down in that area is susceptible to experience something like that. Charley was a category 4 at landfall in FL and Andrew was a Cat 5 at landfall in FL. In fact 2 out of the only 3 US landfalling CAT 5's have hit southern FL. Obviously Andrew in 1991 and the Key West storm in 1901. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mupawxnut Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Exactly. With the 1938 population gradually dwindling away, people don't realize that we're susceptible to major hurricanes here. Irene wasn't even a hurricane at landfall... most of the public is completely unprepared for a cat 3 type storm. Anyone want to guess how the power companies would respond? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Exactly. With the 1938 population gradually dwindling away, people don't realize that we're susceptible to major hurricanes here. Irene wasn't even a hurricane at landfall... most of the public is completely unprepared for a cat 3 type storm. The storm surge at the Jersey shore was category 3 level with Sandy. Mostly due to the extremely large wind field and track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Anyone want to guess how the power companies would respond? Months and months of no power in Tolland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 UKMET nantucket landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 The storm surge at the Jersey shore was category 3 level with Sandy. Mostly due to the extremely large wind field and track. Is there any data to back that up? I wouldn't have thought the surge levels would be that high of an equivalent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Charley was a category 4 at landfall in FL and Andrew was a Cat 5 at landfall in FL. In fact 2 out of the only 3 US landfalling CAT 5's have hit southern FL. Obviously Andrew in 1991 and the Key West storm in 1901. I was just starting my freshman year at University of Miami when Andrew hit. Actually, I had driven there with my parents and arrived 2 days before landfall. That was bananas....We were on the second floor of a 12 story dorm and it was rocking pretty good. The sound was ridiculous. Will never forget that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Is there any data to back that up? I wouldn't have thought the surge levels would be that high of an equivalent. http://www.weather.com/news/weather-hurricanes/sandy-surge-interactive-20121105 The link above will answer that question. No doubt Jersey saw a storm surge of 9-12 ft. Whole shore got decimated. Link below shows the scale. http://www.weather.com/encyclopedia/charts/tropical/saffirscale.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 GFS still likes NF/NS way out in la la land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Charley was a category 4 at landfall in FL and Andrew was a Cat 5 at landfall in FL. In fact 2 out of the only 3 US landfalling CAT 5's have hit southern FL. Obviously Andrew in 1991 and the Key West storm in 1901. Er...you mean the 1935 Labor Day storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Charley was a category 4 at landfall in FL and Andrew was a Cat 5 at landfall in FL. In fact 2 out of the only 3 US landfalling CAT 5's have hit southern FL. Obviously Andrew in 1991 and the Key West storm in 1901. I Said West Palm Beach to South Beach Miami. The fact that area has gone over 80 years since a cat 4/5 landfall just surprises me a great deal. I know Puerto Rico and esp Hispanola and Cuba saves S FL a great deal of major hurricane hits so I guess when u factor this in it's not as shocking. Interestingly the 0z gfs is also run "Jb's basement" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 so the 0z gfs is liking the idea of a hurricane slamming into nova scotia after making a run at FL, SE coast, then just off shore new England. Def. not boring or at this point Likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 With the WAR looking to re-establish itself, the coast should monitor Dorian closely. When I say coast, I mean anywhere from Key West north. Not necessarily NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 After last years storms, the generator companies at least in Massachusetts are doing ridiculous business. We just got an estimate on a 20kw generator and they told us earliest October for installation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Cat 5 Tolland hit likely URI mud studies have shown at least 5 1938 or greater storms over the last 700 years in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 After last years storms, the generator companies at least in Massachusetts are doing ridiculous business. We just got an estimate on a 20kw generator and they told us earliest October for installation. For home or work? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 With the WAR looking to re-establish itself, the coast should monitor Dorian closely. When I say coast, I mean anywhere from Key West north. Not necessarily NE. where are you seeing that? Nothing shows the WAR reestablished that I can see, op/ens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 where are you seeing that? Nothing shows the WAR reestablished that I can see, op/ens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 BOB taking a snapshot of one time period is not a reestablished WAR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 BOB taking a snapshot of one time period is not a reestablished WAR. Just trying to keep readership numbers up. Wake me up when there is an establish N to S oriented trough axis with a CAT3 at 20N 75W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 BOB taking a snapshot of one time period is not a reestablished WAR. I did not write fully re-established. I wrote "looking to re-establish". It won't lock in like we had for the last 3 weeks but Dorian does not looks to be recurving out to sea anytime soon. Loop the 500mb images and you can see the ridging is there basically the whole time as Dorian cuts across the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 You can have the WAR build back and it doesn't have to mean 97/75 here. Bob is just referring to the ridge steering it west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 I did not write fully re-established. I wrote "looking to re-establish". It won't lock in like we had for the last 3 weeks but Dorian does not looks to be recurving out to sea anytime soon. Loop the 500mb images and you can see the ridging is there basically the whole time as Dorian cuts across the Atlantic. on the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 You can have the WAR build back and it doesn't have to mean 97/75 here. Bob is just referring to the ridge steering it west. There is always high pressure somewhere in the Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 on the Euro? Yeah, it's there as well. Euro basically brings Dorian, or whatever it is by than, into the SE US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 There is always high pressure somewhere in the Atlantic This upcoming system in the Northeast lifts out and the ULL retreats N a bit out of the GL and that helps to rebuild the ridging towards the East coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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