N. OF PIKE Posted July 24, 2013 Share Posted July 24, 2013 Dorian @11? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 24, 2013 Share Posted July 24, 2013 Dorian @11? DVORAK estimates at 30 KTS so probably not. It also doesn't look quite as good to me as it did earlier. UW - CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ADT-Version 8.1.4 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 24 JUL 2013 Time : 124500 UTC Lat : 14:12:46 N Lon : 29:13:25 W CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 2.0 /1012.0mb/ 30.0kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 1.8 2.0 3.4 Center Temp : -43.3C Cloud Region Temp : -47.3C Scene Type : SHEAR (0.04^ TO DG) Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.2T/hour Weakening Flag : ON Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs : - Average 34 knot radii : 33km - Environmental MSLP : 1014mb Satellite Name : MSG3 Satellite Viewing Angle : 37.4 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 24, 2013 Share Posted July 24, 2013 don't like cape verde system chances when globals open them up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 24, 2013 Share Posted July 24, 2013 lol: Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi Water warm enough all the way to RI coast to support tropical cyclone(26C) Real Tropical system later this year, LIKE 1950s could be trouble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 24, 2013 Share Posted July 24, 2013 lol: Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi Water warm enough all the way to RI coast to support tropical cyclone(26C) Real Tropical system later this year, LIKE 1950s could be trouble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 24, 2013 Share Posted July 24, 2013 We now have Tropical Storm DORIAN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 24, 2013 Share Posted July 24, 2013 JB! JB! JB! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted July 24, 2013 Share Posted July 24, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted July 24, 2013 Share Posted July 24, 2013 haven't been playing close attn to the LR models, but the 12z gfs offers some hope to enter Aug. Not SNE-centric, just overall tropical atl. sure enough, gfs picked up on "it" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted July 24, 2013 Share Posted July 24, 2013 The 12Z GFS looks like it was run in JB's basement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted July 24, 2013 Share Posted July 24, 2013 The 12Z GFS looks like it was run in JB's basement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted July 24, 2013 Share Posted July 24, 2013 Looks like * potential* swell starting next friday thru wheneva for s /se facing beaches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 24, 2013 Share Posted July 24, 2013 Looks like * potential* swell starting next friday thru wheneva for s /se facing beaches There is you wave machine you were looking for, might be a good swell fromthis weekends system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 24, 2013 Share Posted July 24, 2013 The 12Z GFS looks like it was run in JB's basement. Cat 5 into Long Island? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted July 24, 2013 Share Posted July 24, 2013 Cat 5 into Long Island?Not quite but if you adjust for it's SE bias and low resolution that's what you get:) Tim Kelley is going to surf with a "I told you" t-shirt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 24, 2013 Share Posted July 24, 2013 Cat 5 into Long Island? Nah. Re-curves the system towards the benchmark, but I'm sure if that verified there would be plenty of models bringing it into the East Coast leading up to that point, lol. Heavy, heavy hype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted July 24, 2013 Share Posted July 24, 2013 Not quite but if you adjust for it's SE bias and low resolution that's what you get:) Tim Kelley is going to surf with a "I told you" t-shirt. Tim Kelley said Aug 19th to Sept 25th or something like that, so if by miracle Dorian ever did anything, his forecast busted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 24, 2013 Share Posted July 24, 2013 Tim Kelley said Aug 19th to Sept 25th or something like that, so if by miracle Dorian ever did anything, his forecast busted. It's fairly rare for a July Cape Verde storm to threaten the East Coast, but we'll see. Note that the NHC only keeps it a minimal TS in the coming days. It's moving into a less favorable environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 24, 2013 Share Posted July 24, 2013 Nah. Re-curves the system towards the benchmark, but I'm sure if that verified there would be plenty of models bringing it into the East Coast leading up to that point, lol. Heavy, heavy hype. ah yes....and climo says we rarely get effects from those--remember Ernesto a few years ago? TS warnings everywhere and barely any wind or rain...the media hype after Sandy will be through the roof if anything is within 500 miles of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 24, 2013 Share Posted July 24, 2013 Tim Kelley said Aug 19th to Sept 25th or something like that, so if by miracle Dorian ever did anything, his forecast busted. it will bust in all liklihood anyway.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted July 24, 2013 Share Posted July 24, 2013 I posted this in the Dorian thread on the Weather Forecasting and Discussion forum but I figured I would share my thoughts here as well since it is relevant: FWIW the 12Z runs of the Euro and GEM have a tropical wave (which is actually Dorian) just north of Hispaniola at 12Z on the 30th. GFS has Dorian further east more towards Puerto Rico but the fact that the Euro and GEM have picked up on something similar around this same exact time period should warrant some interest, especially given how far out this is. GFS is obviously more progressive with the development but imho I can see the stars aligning within the next couple of model runs given this stays course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted July 24, 2013 Share Posted July 24, 2013 Cat 5 into Long Island? Don't believe a SNE Cat 5 landfall is possible. Cat 4 would even be pushing it, and the storm would have to be accelerating and going over 50 mph at landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted July 24, 2013 Share Posted July 24, 2013 Don't believe a SNE Cat 5 landfall is possible. Cat 4 would even be pushing it, and the storm would have to be accelerating and going over 50 mph at landfall. I believe he was joking when he said that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted July 24, 2013 Share Posted July 24, 2013 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Don't believe a SNE Cat 5 landfall is possible. Cat 4 would even be pushing it, and the storm would have to be accelerating and going over 50 mph at landfall. The Colonicane in 1635 was likely a category 4, but that's probably the worst possible hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 The Colonicane in 1635 was likely a category 4, but that's probably the worst possible hit. Man, when do you think we'll get a repeat of that monster? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 The Colonicane in 1635 was likely a category 4, but that's probably the worst possible hit. How much info do we have from that one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 How much info do we have from that one? I'm pretty sure just the accounts of the time like governor Bradford and pretty much anyone that wrote about it. NOAA did a re-analysis based off that info and simulated the storm as best they could. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Wordddd.... SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGENWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD1502Z WED JUL 24 2013DUE TO THE THREAT OF CWD NEXT WEEK FOR THE TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THEATLANTIC, NCEP/NCO IS MOVING THE "GO LIVE" OF THE NEW WCOSSSUPERCOMPUTERS UP TO TOMORROW, THURSDAY 7/25.THE PRODUCTION SUITE ON WCOSS SYSTEM TIDE WILL BEGIN SENDING OUTTHE OFFICIAL OPERATIONAL PRODUCTS AT ROUGHLY 1230Z. DATADISSEMINATION FROM THE CURRENT CCS SUPERCOMPUTER WILL CEASE ATTHAT POINT, ALTHOUGH A FEW MODELS WILL CONTINUE TO COME FROM THECCS AS THEY BLEED OFF OVER THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER THE SWITCHTO WCOSS SYSTEM TIDE. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/view/validProds.php?prod=ADM&node=KWNO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Man, when do you think we'll get a repeat of that monster? That's a good question to one of the experts, but it would look like a return-time of like 500-1000+ years. Much like the October blizzard.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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