OKpowdah Posted June 3, 2013 Share Posted June 3, 2013 I know we're all a little severe-weathered out, but unfortunately this week does not show any signs of a break. A large upper level low is currently moving eastward into the Dakotas, with smaller impulses riding around the low to the south. Lee cyclogenesis in eastern Colorado this afternoon, with a tightening dryline will provide the focus for thunderstorms across western KS, OK, and the TX panhandle. As southerly return flow intensifies today, we should see quick moisture return, with dew points back in the 60's this evening. There's also pretty good model support for an overnight MCS rolling through OK into tomorrow morning. By tomorrow afternoon, dew points are up around 70 across OK, with CAPE in the 3000-4000 range and LIs around -10. As the upper low to the north slides ESE, and another impulse is ejected from the SW, we'll see surface cyclogenesis in the TX panhandle, with a SErly LLJ developing in the evening, and very impressive turning of winds with height. Surface DL/WF intersection in western OK. Cold front sweeps the area on Wednesday as the upper low shifts in the Midwest / GL region with another impulse now diving SE around it. Another round of strong to severe thunderstorms may accompany the FROPA with a damaging wind threat. Some dependence on previous day's convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 3, 2013 Share Posted June 3, 2013 Multiple runs of the NAM and the 12z NAM-4km showed a squall type storm around Woodward OK (or west of Woodward) tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted June 3, 2013 Share Posted June 3, 2013 Hatched area highlighted on the D2 for Western OK - tomorrow seems like a sleeper day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSWx Posted June 3, 2013 Share Posted June 3, 2013 Would you guys say it's more of a wind/hail threat or are tornadoes looking likely as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted June 3, 2013 Share Posted June 3, 2013 The isolated cell from the HiRes 6z run shows a pretty isolated cell in W. OK charting through an area with an EHI of around 7 to 9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 3, 2013 Share Posted June 3, 2013 Would you guys say it's more of a wind/hail threat or are tornadoes looking likely as well? My guess is that the SPC will put out a 5% risk for the tornadoes tomorrow. The NAM and GFS have about 20-25 knots of wind at 500mb, so I think supercell rotations won't be extreme in most circumstances. look at this DDC radar image. There are a few showers forming. What I found interesting is the bugs in the boundary layer (non-precipitation echoes) has such a regularity in its bumpiness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted June 3, 2013 Share Posted June 3, 2013 StormScape folks core-punching a pretty massive cell in S KS right now. Storm looks to be tracking east, but if it jogs NE it could track towards Greensburg. The environment isn't too favorable for the cell to produce a tornado, but they should be able to get some amazing structure shots in the next 30 min/hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 Saw a beautiful "mothership" supercell today just east of Perryton, TX. There was even a large area of dust that seemed to be rotating along with the wall cloud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 Believe high-res guidance is over-compensating for the cool pool this morning. I would not punt western Oklahoma convection. SPC 1300z outlook looks pretty accurate to me. Once again one can dissect the hail probabilities, incl hatched, to fine-tune the tornado probabilities. SPC has higher probs in northwest OK, but note the chance down to the Red River. Today: Thanks to weaker jet stream winds this is not a strong tornado day. Public can rest assured sheltering in place even w/o basements. I’d expect fairly slow High Plains drifters if I were out there. OFB noted south of the Red River this morning, but curving back up into the TX Panhandle. It’ll lift north of the Red River, unless that high-res is correct and cells fire on it before lifting north. Such early initiation would further reduce tornado risk in the primary target area, like Wednesday last week. Otherwise look for isolated cells starting in far western Oklahoma, almost into the TX Panhandle. Large hail would be the main risk. Perhaps a couple hose or small elephant trunk tornadoes. Great day for structure photographs! Wednesday: West Texas, south of Panhandle, has the best chance of quality structure and maybe even a couple tornadoes. Large hail will be a risk over all of West Texas. East-west boundary shifts farther south on heels of prior convection. Expect a triple point between Midland-Odessa, San Angelo, TX and Abilene, TX with dry line extending south. There is the Wednesday area IMO. Jet stream a little stronger than today but nothing like last week. Thursday: South Texas still in the mix with barely adequate jet stream winds. Much will depend on morning rain, OFB placement, S/W timing, and the mass response at sfc, 925 and 850. Looks weak at this time, which is good since Austin and San Antonio are in that area. Friday: Looks like a lot of lift over uncapped Mid South. Hooray, more soaking rain for my lawn and likely no severe weather here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 I'll be happy if I can see a supercell develop just east of Denver and wander off into an MCS around the KS border. Still looking for my first great structure shot since moving to Denver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 Comparing ADD vis loop and SPC RAP based mesoanalysis, cu is forming apparently on dry side of dry line, with one shower forming right on the dryline between Sweetwater and Abilene. Small area where that shower is developing where MLCINH is less than -25J/Kg. MLCAPE near 3000 J/Kg, and near 40 knots bulk shear if that little shower can maintain and grow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 There have been a few nice wind signatures with the line segments this evening. Even had this earlier... 0656 PM TSTM WND GST 7 SSE SPRINGFIELD 37.31N 102.59W06/04/2013 M90 MPH BACA CO ASOSASOS RECORDED 90 MPH GUST FROM NORTHWEST AT 656 PM MDT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Quite a bow echo running W-E along the KS/OK border with warnings of 75+mph in the warning statements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Looks like there have been a few very strong gusts around 80mph with this squall line near Lubbock. This is a zoom-in on a bulge in the squall line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Multiple mid-high 70 mph wind reports in West TX and an 82 mph report in Lubbock county. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0973 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1119 PM CDT WED JUN 05 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...TX S PLAINS INTO NWRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 281... VALID 060419Z - 060615Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 281 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...AN INTENSE MCS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE EXTREMELY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL FROM THE S PLAINS INTO NWRN TX. DISCUSSION...WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WINDS HAVE BEEN MEASURED ACROSS W TX WITH AN MCS THAT CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD. IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS AND WIND-DRIVEN HAIL WITH THE PRIMARY LEADING BOW...PROLONGED DAMAGING REAR-INFLOW AND WAKE WINDS PERSIST IN EXCESS OF 75 MPH. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS BEFORE POTENTIALLY INTERACTING WITH A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT IS MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE ABILENE AREA WITH HAIL AND WIND. ..JEWELL.. 06/06/2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Virtually every West Texas mesonet has recorded a severe wind. The Lubbock Airport had a gust to 77 while surrounding mesonet stations had 82 and 84 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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