Rainshadow Posted June 3, 2013 Share Posted June 3, 2013 .CLIMATE... OUR ENSO SEASON HEADING INTO THIS SUMMER STAYED UNDER THE CPC DEFINITION OF A FULL FLEDGED LA NINA. SO OUR SUMMER ANALOGS WILL HAVE A DIFFERENT SET OF PREVIOUS SUMMERS THAN THE LAST TWO. IN SPITE OF SOME CHILLY DAYS IN THERE, (MAYBE SURPRISINGLY) BOTH APRIL AND MAY WERE UNSEASONABLY WARM AGAIN FOR THE FIFTH CONSECUTIVE SPRING. BY LOCAL DEFINITION, THOSE MONTH`S AVERAGE TEMPERATURES HAVE TO FALL IN THE TOP THIRD OF ALL MONTHS DATING BACK TO 1872. MAY CAME DOWN TO THE WIRE. WHILE NEITHER MONTH WAS AS WARM AS SPRING 2012, THEY STILL CRACKED THE TOP THIRD. SINCE 1872, THIS COMBINATION HAS OCCURRED ONLY TWENTY-TWO TIMES, BUT NOW TEN TIMES SINCE 1990. IT SHOULD BE NOTED (AS SOLAR CYCLISTS MIGHT ALREADY), THE SUMMERS OF 1980, 1991 AND 2002 WERE ALL HOT SUMMERS IN PHILADELPHIA. THE CURRENT SOLAR CYCLE IS NOT ON PAR WITH THOSE. NEVERTHELESS, THIS ELEVEN YEAR CYCLE HAS SHOWN ITSELF IN THE ANALOGS. BECAUSE WE HAVE NOTICED THAT SUMMERS PRIOR TO CPC`S ANALYSIS OF ENSO CONDITIONS HAVE DRAGGED DOWN THE SKILL OF THESE SUMMER ANALOGS, WE WILL STOP USING ANALOGS PRIOR TO THE SUMMER OF 1950. THIS ALSO LEAVES A HOMOGENEOUS ENSO CLASSIFICATION (VS USING JMA CLASSIFICATION PRIOR TO 1950). FOR HOTTER OR WORSE, HERE ARE THE FIVE ANALOGS. THESE ARE TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR PHILADELPHIA FOR THE UPCOMING SUMMER FOLLOWING UNSEASONABLY WARM APRILS AND MAYS WITH ENSO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. THE ONE DIFFERENCE WITH THIS ANALOG SET VS THE LAST COUPLE OF SUMMERS IS THE BACK END HEAT FOR AUGUST. WHILE THE LAST SEVERAL SUMMERS HAVE BEEN DOWNRIGHT HOT, AUGUST HAS BEEN THE MONTH CLOSEST TO AVERAGE LEVELS. YEAR JUNE JULY AUG SUMMER PCPN 1959 72.2 75.9 76.5 74.9 16.49 1980 70.6 78.5 80.0 76.4 9.11 1991 75.7 79.0 79.0 77.9 12.01 1993 74.4 81.4 78.9 78.2 8.68 2004 71.8 76.3 75.0 74.4 16.65 AVG 72.9 78.2 77.9 76.4 12.59 NML 73.3 78.1 76.6 76.0 11.28 THE EXPERIMENTAL TWO CLASS SEASONAL OUTLOOK BY THE CPC FOR THIS SUMMER HAS THE MOUNT HOLLY CWA WITH ABOUT A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER. THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK IS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF IT BEING EITHER DRIER OR WETTER THAN NORMAL. BTW, Mark has retired, so I wont be able to post his regression outlooks any longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 3, 2013 Share Posted June 3, 2013 easternsnowman agrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted June 3, 2013 Author Share Posted June 3, 2013 easternsnowman agrees It is amazing the switch with April and May the last 25 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 3, 2013 Share Posted June 3, 2013 It is amazing the switch with April and May the last 25 years.it'd be interesting to see how much is correlated to the AMM/AMO and how much is something else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 3, 2013 Share Posted June 3, 2013 I'll take that summer forecast. As long as the precip is normal to above i can deal with some heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 Quakertown needs snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 I'll take more of today's weather, please. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 I'll take more of today's weather, please. Thanks. Si. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 I'll take more of today's weather, please. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 Tony, thanks for the post. I think I also like the idea of a late summer warm anomaly. I'm not sure yet how extensive it will be but August could be most of the northern-tier of the CONUS while September is more RNA-styled. Looking like a stormy first half! So when should we expect NC to see a landfalling tropical system this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 You forgot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 easternsnowman agrees Yes! Actually it will feel cool compared to last 3 summers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 Right now around +1 looks reasonable for a summer temp forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted June 5, 2013 Author Share Posted June 5, 2013 Tony, thanks for the post. I think I also like the idea of a late summer warm anomaly. I'm not sure yet how extensive it will be but August could be most of the northern-tier of the CONUS while September is more RNA-styled. Looking like a stormy first half! So when should we expect NC to see a landfalling tropical system this year? The way we have already had a couple of bermuda highs build pretty far west and the drought more westward oriented...looks like more trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Right now around +1 looks reasonable for a summer temp forecast. That's where I ended up. I think if the bar were set at 30.5 for over/under on 90 degree days I'd take the under and feel really good about my odds. I do think August is the warmest to normal of the three -- 2001 was one of my analog years for this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted June 5, 2013 Author Share Posted June 5, 2013 That's where I ended up. I think if the bar were set at 30.5 for over/under on 90 degree days I'd take the under and feel really good about my odds. I do think August is the warmest to normal of the three -- 2001 was one of my analog years for this summer. I don't think anyone wants that ensuing winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Nice outlook. 2001 was my primary analog for my summer forecast as well, and to no surprise I like August as the warmest of the three months relative to normal. Also looks like a wet/stormy summer on tap. Looks like I'm cooler than you though. Thinking we should pencil in at least 1 negative month for temp departures. http://lightinthestorm.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Nice outlook. 2001 was my primary analog for my summer forecast as well, and to no surprise I like August as the warmest of the three months relative to normal. Also looks like a wet/stormy summer on tap. Looks like I'm cooler than you though. Thinking we should pencil in at least 1 negative month for temp departures. http://lightinthestorm.com/ I can live with that, since its the next trip home I have scheduled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted June 7, 2013 Author Share Posted June 7, 2013 By the way, someone did e-mail and ask for any of the pre 1950 years that fit the description, while the temperatures were lower, they did show the same tendency (precip also) Year, June, July,August,Summer Average,Summer Precipitation 1896.....70.3F, 77.5F, 76.6F, 74.8F and 7.80" 1933.....74.4F, 76.6F, 76.0F, 75.7F and 19.32" 1942....72.4F, 77.2F, 73.0F, 74.2F and 15.86" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 Right now around +1 looks reasonable for a summer temp forecast. The way temps have been over the last 3 years +1 or even more will be right for any season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted June 30, 2013 Author Share Posted June 30, 2013 After a wet June, the results are not that surprising .CLIMATE...WE STAND A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF HAVING THE WETTEST JUNE ONRECORD IN PHILADELPHIA. WE LOOKED BACK AT THE 10 PREVIOUS WETTESTJUNES ON RECORD AND SAW HOW THE REST OF THE METEOROLOGICAL SUMMERWENT FORWARD. WET BEGETTED(SP) MORE WET. GIVEN HOW WET THE GFS ANDECMWF LOOK INTO THE START OF JULY THAT NOTION IS HOLDING. BOTHENSUING MONTHS AVERAGED WETTER THAN THE CURRENT NORMALS WITH EIGHTOF THE TEN MONTHS COMBINED AVERAGING WETTER THAN NORMAL. ALL OFTHE MONTHS HAD TWO INCHES OR MORE OF RAINFALL. AS FAR ASTEMPERATURES WENT, JULY AVERAGED SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE CURRENTNORMAL, WHILE AUGUST WAS VERY CLOSE TO THE CURRENT NORMAL. SIX OFTHE TEN AUGUSTS WERE AS WARM OR WARMER THAN JULY.YEAR JULY AVG JULY AUG AVG AUGUSTTEMP PCPN TEMP PCPN1887 80.7 7.14 74.0 2.311906 75.6 5.33 76.2 9.561928 77.3 3.60 77.2 5.471938 77.3 6.52 78.3 4.101962 72.0 2.30 72.0 6.581969 75.1 8.33 75.2 2.661973 77.9 2.39 78.7 2.031975 76.6 6.32 77.0 2.112003 78.7 2.01 78.2 3.262006 79.4 4.27 78.1 3.93AVG 77.1 4.82 76.5 4.201981-2010 NML 78.1 4.35 76.6 3.50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted July 27, 2013 Share Posted July 27, 2013 Right now around +1 looks reasonable for a summer temp forecast. How has the first 2/3rds of the summer been so far up there? On the cool side I would guess with all the rain. Only one hot spell to speak about. August looks to be on the coolish side as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted July 27, 2013 Share Posted July 27, 2013 How has the first 2/3rds of the summer been so far up there? On the cool side I would guess with all the rain. Only one hot spell to speak about. August looks to be on the coolish side as well. Based on the current normals, average temp for PHL from June 1-July 25 is about 75.5 This year, June 1-July 25 averaged 77.9 by my reckoning. That's +2.4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted July 27, 2013 Share Posted July 27, 2013 Based on the current normals, average temp for PHL from June 1-July 25 is about 75.5 This year, June 1-July 25 averaged 77.9 by my reckoning. That's +2.4. really?!? Never would have guessed it to be that positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted July 27, 2013 Share Posted July 27, 2013 really?!? Never would have guessed it to be that positive. Warm nights. PHL just set a record for longest consecutive number of days of min temps 70 or higher. 224 SXUS71 KPHI 250504RERPHLRECORD EVENT REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ104 AM EDT THU JUL 25 2013...RECORD NUMBER OF DAYS ABOVE 70 DEGREES AT PHILADELPHIA...SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT, THE TEMPERATURE AT PHILADELPHIA DROPPED BELOW THE 70 DEGREE MARK FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE JUNE 23. AS A RESULT, THE NEW RECORD FOR CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT PHILADELPHIA WITH A MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 70 DEGREES OR HIGHER IS 30. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 26 WHICH OCCURRED FROM JULY 12 THROUGH AUGUST 6 IN 1995.$$IOVINO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted July 27, 2013 Share Posted July 27, 2013 2.4 above 1981-2010 is right around where is has been since 2010,nothing unusual there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted July 27, 2013 Share Posted July 27, 2013 2.4 above 1981-2010 is right around where is has been since 2010,nothing unusual there. 1 80.2 1994 2 80.1 2010 3 77.7 2008 4 77.6 1993 5 77.6 1991 6 77.1 1995 7 76.9 1987 8 76.5 2005 9 76.3 2002 10 76.3 1999 11 76.1 1988 12 75.6 1986 13 75.6 2001 14 75.5 2006 15 75.4 1989 16 75.1 2007 17 74.7 2003 18 74.7 1990 19 74.4 1981 20 74.4 1983 21 74.1 1998 22 74.0 1992 23 74.0 1997 24 73.8 1996 25 73.8 1984 26 73.7 2004 27 73.1 2000 28 72.7 2009 29 72.2 1982 30 71.8 1985 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted July 27, 2013 Share Posted July 27, 2013 1 80.2 1994 2 80.1 2010 3 77.7 2008 4 77.6 1993 5 77.6 1991 6 77.1 1995 7 76.9 1987 8 76.5 2005 9 76.3 2002 10 76.3 1999 11 76.1 1988 12 75.6 1986 13 75.6 2001 14 75.5 2006 15 75.4 1989 16 75.1 2007 17 74.7 2003 18 74.7 1990 19 74.4 1981 20 74.4 1983 21 74.1 1998 22 74.0 1992 23 74.0 1997 24 73.8 1996 25 73.8 1984 26 73.7 2004 27 73.1 2000 28 72.7 2009 29 72.2 1982 30 71.8 1985 It looks like over the last 20 or so years is where those differences are. Although the last 3 summers in a row have been around 2 or so above normal and my thinking all along has been about the same for this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted July 27, 2013 Share Posted July 27, 2013 It looks like over the last 20 or so years is where those differences are. Although the last 3 summers in a row have been around 2 or so above normal and my thinking all along has been about the same for this summer. 1991-2010 1 80.2 1994 2 80.1 2010 3 77.7 2008 4 77.6 1993 5 77.6 1991 6 77.1 1995 8 76.5 2005 9 76.3 2002 10 76.3 1999 13 75.6 2001 14 75.5 2006 16 75.1 2007 17 74.7 2003 21 74.1 1998 22 74.0 1992 23 74.0 1997 24 73.8 1996 26 73.7 2004 27 73.1 2000 28 72.7 2009 Or 2001-2010 2 80.1 2010 3 77.7 2008 8 76.5 2005 9 76.3 2002 13 75.6 2001 14 75.5 2006 16 75.1 2007 17 74.7 2003 26 73.7 2004 28 72.7 2009 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 believe it or not this July will be the least warm (better word choice than coolest lol) since 2009. Probably come in around 80.7 for the month, which ties for 10th warmest on record, but it's cooler than 2010-2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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