......

[bluewave]

..

[The_Global_Warmer]

Wow, Bluewave that is something else.

 

I was thinking about 2013 and so far it has been a bit different than the most recent years.  April was well above the 2007-2012 April snow cover.  Essentially going into May snow cover was much higher.  It turned around the 5th to 10th into a big negative anomaly.  But not the NA side.  Which didn't turn negative until at least the 15th and most of that was way out in the NW side of NA.  The North Central and NE side has been normal or slightly below in May and WAY WAY WAY above through the first week of May.

 

 

 

So here is April.  Overall April was lower from 2007-2012 with some years having the NH snow cover higher. I am not sure if it means anything but 2007, 2010, and 2012 were all lower in April than the other, they were also the worst melt seasons for Greenland.  It's a weak correlation at best. 

 

But since we have good evidence of this being a trigger.  The on-set and duration need to be looked into.

 

Last year the snow cover eventually sometime in May was the lowest on record and carried that into June.

 

2012 was negative

2011 was positive

2010 was way negative

2008 and 2009 were positive

2007 was a little negative.

 

 

Is Canada the key?

 

in 2012 in late May into Early June snow cover anomaly's over Canada plummeted.  Historically speaking Northern Canada Snow cover in a ring around the Canadian Archipelago is slow to melt out into mid June.

 

In-fact almost the entire Canadian Archipelago has snow cover until late June when it starts to melt out.  But for most of June snow cover is supposed to be present over Northern Canada as well.  Around right now that region's snow retreat dramatically slows according to climo.

 

Last year the Canadian side didn't flip until an abrupt change around the 27th-29th. There was also a huge vortex.  The arctic wasn't as cold as this year has been so far but it wasn't torching all Spring there was a quick flip.  It might be a coincidence but it took place as the red ring of snow retreat in Canada showed up.  We can also assume places that still had snow cover.  Were seeing albedo lower quickly with melt.

 

 

 

 

 

 

So this year, Siberian Snow cover anomaly's have been extremely low in May but Canada hasn't.  And we are at the point where Canada anomaly's have to grow like you see on last years charts or Hemispheric snow cover anomaly's will be lower than the recent big years because Siberia anomaly's shrink with climo.

 

This is yesterday's snow cover anomaly.  Tonight's isn't out for another hour or so.  We can see the red ring is starting to show up. 

 

More than just that, the models have continued to advertise and have quickly turned to a solution that torches Northern Canada into the Archipelago.  Over the next 7 days.

 

At the same time they keep trending Greenland to rapidly warmup. And after day 4 the vortex starts to weaken and slides back to the Kara region as heights slowly rise over the arctic. 

 

I haven't posted much about this with the models in the medium to long range because I think when they get out to day 6-10 climo is effecting the details because a large veil of "cool" air over the Canadian side of the arctic is expansive yet higher pressures form overall, weaker pressure gradients with Southerly flow and widespread Sun during June 5th-10th.  Not going to be that cool.  Not without a cold air source being pumped from a vortex over ice like right now how it's very cold in the mid levels with the vortex.

 

We will see.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

One more thing.  If you track visible sat images everyday.  You know there is about a week or so period where albedo's over the remaining snow and sea ice quickly plummet.

 

 

It doesn't have to be torching at all.  This historically would happen in mid June.  Recently it's been late May.

 

This year it was pushed back but it's happening now. 

[The_Global_Warmer]

Well.

 

It's not a pure set-up and takes time to develop.  But the trends have now ran towards this for 4-5 cycles.  The Northern Canada snow cover will get smoked with this.  Everything slowly shifts and reorganizes towards the Russia side in terms of cyclones.

 

Also Greenland's reprieve is over.