hurricaneman Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 What is the source of the energy on the euro? Is it a simple h5 vort exiting the coast and then organizing or are things put together beforehand? The area currently in the eastern Gulf I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 The area currently in the eastern Gulf I believe yeah the junk with the stalled front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 tho it looks like it gets injected with some energy coming in across the central u.s. actually, i guess from the closed low over the plains right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Interesting. I suppose it's more possible than I thought. The pattern is amplified. No doubt about that. It's far from uncommon to have a vort vacuum up some gulf junk as it rounds the bottom. GFS definitely shows some ingredients for that. Me likey amplified patterns. I've been weather-bored for months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 GFS not doing the recurve... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 GFS not doing the recurve...Did you mean retrograde? Otherwise that post was actually good news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Did you mean retrograde? Otherwise that post was actually good news. Wasn't aware of the technical difference; yes, thanks, I guess I meant retrograde; i.e. the low still sails out into the atlantic rather than retrograding into the eastern seaboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 lots of euro hugging.. 'tis the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Wasn't aware of the technical difference; yes, thanks, I guess I meant retrograde; i.e. the low still sails out into the atlantic rather than retrograding into the eastern seaboard.Yeah, I just saw it till hour 129. We need some exciting weather ASAP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 I would think the euro is an outlier considering how much has to go right to get a retrograde in late sept. If you look at the hudson vortex the trough in front has too much of a pos tilt and it's getting sucked into the vortex over southern GL. The gl vortex can't be there. We need the hudson vortex to hit a brick wall with a gl block. No way to get a backing flow without some sort of features like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 lots of euro hugging.. 'tis the season Timeline of shattered dreams is usually: Days 5-10: Euro hugging Days 2-5: GFS hugging Days 0-2: NAM hugging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 ^captain obvious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Yeah, I just saw it till hour 129. We need some exciting weather ASAP. Having said that, it actually does hook back in the 140-150hr window, but much further north. It didn't do that in the 0Z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 The GFS does move it somewhat west in the later panels. I'm waxing my surfboard just in case:) Edit: ninja'd by eurojosh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Timeline of shattered dreams is usually: Days 5-10: Euro hugging Days 2-5: GFS hugging Days 0-2: NAM hugging Then revert to: pillow hugging (zzzz) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Having said that, it actually does hook back in the 140-150hr window, but much further north. It didn't do that in the 0Z... At the very least the euro and gfs both now have the same idea irt closing things off in the same general area. Upstream on the gfs pretty much ensures that it has little effect on the MA. But assuming the handling of the dual vorts over hudson and greenland is right which it likely isn't of course. It's a little early in the season for an event to unfold like the euro. If it was mid-oct it would be more interesting. It's hard to get cooperation with a deep trough and block in september. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Be sure to mention that the GGEM has it like the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Be sure to mention that the GGEM has it like the Euro Waiting on the 12z run but yeah this is 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 canadian is further east this go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bari Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 is it possible that the EURO is taking the -NAO forecast and having a little to much fun with it's idea of a storm, i mean this storms is going to need some serious blocking and i'm worried it's just not going to be there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 canadian is further east this go cmc_precip_mslp_east_24.png Still plenty of time for a W trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 canadian is further east this go cmc_precip_mslp_east_24.png Still hits eastern New England with rains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 DGEX is OTS as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 DGEX is OTS as well It's ovah then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Euro is east of 0z as well, clips cape cod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Awesome warm-up for the winter model runs. Eventually, the models will lock onto a late hook that whacks SNE while providing us with wind, done and done. Pics of Kev standing in windy rain forthcoming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Not surprised at the euro. There was really never much of a blocking signal or a good setup downstream to affect land in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted September 24, 2013 Author Share Posted September 24, 2013 Already kissed this baby goodbye :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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