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June 2013 Observations and Discussions


SACRUS

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00z/12z guidance continues with the warmer but continued active theme for the upcoming weekend and end of June.  Addtionally the next show at 90s between the 23rd and 26th.   ECm has front and trough moving through d8/9 before the ridge seems to rebuild beyond d10.  The mean trough is west of where its been but frequent fronts are likely as per guidance.  Overall a warmer pattern with shots of heat liekly a dat or two before the potential for stronger and longer shot of heat by the week of 30th.  The longer range gfs and some ensembles are hinting that the Western Atlantic Ridge pays us a vist in time for the 4th of July but thats in lala land of the guidance. 

 

 

test8.gif

 

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Heavy downpour ending here with the sun shining in Western Nassau and distant thunder.

Just got a call from Long Beach with about 30 seconds of smaller than pea sized hail

with the very heavy thunderstorm.

 

attachicon.gifWUNIDS_map.gif

 

 

Yeah, I "chased" the thing on Long Beach and very briefly saw very small hail with this thing. My car was also shaking in the parking lot from the wind when I was riding it out. 

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Although you can see the rain shaft/downdraft in the 2nd photo of my photo stitch just posted, you can see it better with this one.

enebu7yz.jpg

 

 

Great shot. I was able to capture a microburst 2 years ago while looking west along the beach. You can make

out the rain foot fanning out in the distance. 

 

JFK Obs 7-13-11

 

METAR KJFK 132351Z 31020G44KT 4SM R04R/4000VP6000FT +RA FEW022 BKN065CB BKN140 BKN250 22/17 A2978 RMK AO2 PK WND 31044/2344 RAB43 SLP085 CB OHD-NW MOV SE P0005 60005 T02220172 10317 20222 53022

 

 

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Wow, nice pics. I heard it was a pretty nasty one around Long Beach-didn't look like many branches/limbs down luckily, and it's very rare we see any kind of hail. So far this spring we have been the magnet for the worst weather. I was in Midtown at the time but my brother was at home.

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Looks like the heat begins as early as Sunday. Its possible that it could stick around for a while. Will see what happens

Major differences between the Euro and GFS, with the Euro bringing a trough back into the ne by the end of next week, while the GFS maintains an eastern ridge right up until July 3rd. It will be interesting to see if the GFS bends toward the Euro in future runs or vica versa.

WX/PT

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Major differences between the Euro and GFS, with the Euro bringing a trough back into the ne by the end of next week, while the GFS maintains an eastern ridge right up until July 3rd. It will be interesting to see if the GFS bends toward the Euro in future runs or vica versa.

WX/PT

If the Euro is correct the door will be opening for an east coast tropical threat come the day 9-10 period should something form. It's early in the season but the relatively persistent east coast trough is something that will need to be monitored.

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