TWCCraig Posted June 15, 2013 Share Posted June 15, 2013 000SXUS71 KOKX 142033RERISPRECORD EVENT REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY0433 PM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT ISLIP NY...A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 53 DEGREES WAS SET AT ISLIP NY TODAY.THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 53 SET IN 2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 15, 2013 Author Share Posted June 15, 2013 the gfs is spitting out 3 - 5 more inches of much needed rains tue/wed (replay of yesterday). We'll see if the other guidance supports more flooding. Good news is beyond wed its looking drier (less wet) and warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted June 15, 2013 Share Posted June 15, 2013 000 SXUS71 KOKX 142033 RERISP RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 0433 PM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013 ...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT ISLIP NY... A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 53 DEGREES WAS SET AT ISLIP NY TODAY. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 53 SET IN 2009. I had a feeling a record was going to be endangered, but wasn't sure where until now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted June 15, 2013 Share Posted June 15, 2013 I had a feeling a record was going to be endangered, but wasn't sure where until now. Islip's records don't go far back at all so it's easier to break records there, especially record lows. Notice their previous record was from 2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 15, 2013 Share Posted June 15, 2013 The GFS finally caved to the Euro and we get to dry out this week compared to the first half of the month. The Euro doesn't have much rain this week after Sunday night early Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted June 15, 2013 Share Posted June 15, 2013 06z GFS is hot in the long range. OP Pumps a ridge that sits just west of here ensembles are a little more SW. 2mT's are hot, day after day, upper 80's, low 90's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 15, 2013 Share Posted June 15, 2013 We have warmer pattern with more convective threats coming up next week. SPC has western areas in a SEE TEXT and 5% risk both Sun and Mon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 15, 2013 Author Share Posted June 15, 2013 We have warmer pattern with more convective threats coming up next week. SPC has western areas in a SEE TEXT and 5% risk both Sun and Mon. I think we have to get through Wed (6/19) before a warmer more conevective type pattern evolves. Before then I would not bet against the wtter solutions for tue/wed just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 15, 2013 Author Share Posted June 15, 2013 What a day today. wall to wall, gutter to gutter sunshine. This makes 4 weekends in a row that we had some mainly decent weather (second half of memorial day) California style today http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hMb3iWUT8Rs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 15, 2013 Share Posted June 15, 2013 Fully expect the very wet pattern to continue. That's a very potent storm system again next week. All comes down to exact track which is going to change again 20 times before then. The Euro hasn't been any better than the rest of the guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted June 15, 2013 Share Posted June 15, 2013 The Euro hasn't been any better than the rest of the guidance. you are so consistently wrong on these boards it is mind numbing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 15, 2013 Share Posted June 15, 2013 you are so consistently wrong on these boards it is mind numbing.No need for personal attacks just because what I said goes against what you want Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted June 15, 2013 Share Posted June 15, 2013 No need for personal attacks just because what I said goes against what you want pardon? i don't "want" anything. i observe. the euro is superior and anyone who can't see that at this point is bordering on delusion. lebron james is the best player in the nba. aaron rogers/tom brady/drew brees are the best quarterbacks. none of these guys win a title every single year. it doesn't change the fact that they are the best. you can find flips on every model, and outlying examples where it may have been wrong, but if you approach this from any sort of overall aggregate analysis, the euro is a dominant model. it is science, not conjecture or opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 15, 2013 Share Posted June 15, 2013 pardon? i don't "want" anything. i observe. the euro is superior and anyone who can't see that at this point is bordering on delusion. lebron james is the best player in the nba. aaron rogers/tom brady/drew brees are the best quarterbacks. none of these guys win a title every single year. it doesn't change the fact that they are the best. you can find flips on every model, and outlying examples where it may have been wrong, but if you approach this from any sort of overall aggregate analysis, the euro is a dominant model. it is science, not conjecture or opinion. You defend the Euro like it's your Mother. All I said is that the Euro has been no better than any other model with this pattern. I know what the overall performance scores are historically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 15, 2013 Share Posted June 15, 2013 Hopefully, the increased computing power for the GFS allows them to make the model more competitive. But I wouldn't expect that the Euro will lose it's number 1 position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 15, 2013 Share Posted June 15, 2013 You defend the Euro like it's your Mother. All I said is that the Euro has been no better than any other model with this pattern. I know what the overall performance scores are historically. What? Euro has been incredible during this wet pattern. Best by far, along with the rgem. If the euro and rgem have the same solution, take that solution to the bank and ignore everything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted June 15, 2013 Share Posted June 15, 2013 I will say the Euro has been doing well in this pattern, far better than the GFS lately. I don't however like model bashing nor model fanboys that'll live and die by a model no matter what, that's really annoying. Euro has had some mistakes, some huge mistakes too. So does every model, but the Euro has the least mistakes, and that doesn't mean that it's ok to say every solution it puts out is exactly perfect like some on this board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted June 15, 2013 Share Posted June 15, 2013 Hopefully, the increased computing power for the GFS allows them to make the model more competitive. But I wouldn't expect that the Euro will lose it's number 1 position. cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png It will be fun to see, they said by 2015 the gfs will have more computing power than the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted June 15, 2013 Share Posted June 15, 2013 Fully expect the very wet pattern to continue. That's a very potent storm system again next week. All comes down to exact track which is going to change again 20 times before then. The Euro hasn't been any better than the rest of the guidance. The euro has had no storm for a while now, and now the gfs has completely trended away from the full blown noreaster. not sure what your point is. Euro is king Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 15, 2013 Share Posted June 15, 2013 It will be fun to see, they said by 2015 the gfs will have more computing power than the euro The wild card will be how well they can utilize that computing power for better model scores. I am sure the Euro will keep on making improvements through the same time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 15, 2013 Share Posted June 15, 2013 Boo hoo I can see disapointment on a few posters face about us not getting more rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 15, 2013 Share Posted June 15, 2013 Boo hoo I can see disapointment on a few posters face about us not getting more rain we need to dry out but we are in a very wet pattern...NYC is up to 17.60" since May... year...May/June rains 1989.....19.03" 1972.....17.69" 2013.....17.60" 1984.....15.50" 2009.....15.23" 2003.....13.70" 1968.....13.21" 2006.....13.17" 1948.....13.10" 1998.....12.88" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted June 15, 2013 Share Posted June 15, 2013 Boo hoo I can see disapointment on a few posters face about us not getting more rain While I think we will have a pattern change, that doesn't mean that we'll have no more rain. I would think looking at the Euro that there would be some weak fronts passing through here with t-storm activity in the warmer/hot weather regime. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 16, 2013 Share Posted June 16, 2013 Boo hoo I can see disapointment on a few posters face about us not getting more rainWell it's a bit disappointing when your close to a record but fall just short, especially if there's still half a month left and we fail to break it. All it takes, however, is a couple strong thunderstorms to bring down a quick half inch to inch of rain so I fully believe we will break the record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 16, 2013 Share Posted June 16, 2013 Boo hoo I can see disapointment on a few posters face about us not getting more rain The same look when there has been no torch lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 16, 2013 Author Share Posted June 16, 2013 Happy Fathers Day Another decent day with some breaks in the clouds and temps near 80. Looks like only scattered showers/rain later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 16, 2013 Author Share Posted June 16, 2013 Overnight guidance still brings an overall above normal pattern by the end of the week with the some heat next weekend which should give us the next shot at 90s between 6/23 and 6/26. Likely more of a day or two of heat as fropa's will temper the heat, but heights are higher overall with ridge nosing east in spikes. The gfs remains the warmest but the ecm is blasting 850s of 18 - 20c by next sunday. Beyond next weekend the Core of heat and ridge is in the rockies/plains extending into w-canada but the east is under a more progressive trough and weakness under higher heights. The cold in Canada is being consolidated into the northeast provinces while the rest of the north warms. It looks generally above normal with multiple fronts/storms especially into New England as the heat from the plains builds east 6/20 - 6/30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted June 16, 2013 Share Posted June 16, 2013 Overnight guidance still brings an overall above normal pattern by the end of the week with the some heat next weekend which should give us the next shot at 90s between 6/23 and 6/26. Likely more of a day or two of heat as fropa's will temper the heat, but heights are higher overall with ridge nosing east in spikes. The gfs remains the warmest but the ecm is blasting 850s of 18 - 20c by next sunday. Beyond next weekend the Core of heat and ridge is in the rockies/plains extending into w-canada but the east is under a more progressive trough and weakness under higher heights. The cold in Canada is being consolidated into the northeast provinces while the rest of the north warms. It looks generally above normal with multiple fronts/storms especially into New England as the heat from the plains builds east 6/20 - 6/30. Certainly agree that a warmer temps are coming, especially around the 6/21-6/24 period. Some cool downs with fropas as you said. The GFS wants to expand the heat and ridging east much faster and put us into a hotter pattern beyond that. The Euro doesn't do that, and keeps us under more troughs. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 16, 2013 Author Share Posted June 16, 2013 Departures thru mid month TEB: -0.8 NYC: -0.6 EWR: -0.4 LGA: -0.1 JFK: -0.9 TTN: +0.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted June 16, 2013 Share Posted June 16, 2013 Departures thru mid month TEB: -0.8 NYC: -0.6 EWR: -0.4 LGA: -0.1 JFK: -0.9 TTN: +0.7 <Covering NYC Metro, Northern and Central NJ> I guess the description of the sub-forum fits after all.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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