Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

June 2013 Observations and Discussions


SACRUS

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 957
  • Created
  • Last Reply
Link to comment
Share on other sites

--  Trough/wet period continues (temps near/below normal) 6/12 - 6/17

- 6/18 - 6/20  transition towadrs a warming trend

- 6/21 - 6/24 potential next heat

 

Looking ahead -  today's guidance is again a bit warmer on the 12z suite than 00z for next week and beyond.  Persistant split flow into Canada causing a weakness in the northeast and frequent troughing should continue over the next week with more rain and temps averaging near normal (balanced by below and warmer days).  Once to this weekend we should see heights slowly rise and subsequent troughs  become bit less amplified towards the later part of next week.  Signal continues for next burst of heat on/around 6/21.  Until then, we muttle (or enjoy) through the amazon-like conditions.  When/where its raining daytime highs are well below normal with warm night time lows.   When its sunny  its Florida-like.   

Link to comment
Share on other sites

-- Trough/wet period continues (temps near/below normal) 6/12 - 6/17

- 6/18 - 6/20 transition towadrs a warming trend

- 6/21 - 6/24 potential next heat

Looking ahead - today's guidance is again a bit warmer on the 12z suite than 00z for next week and beyond. Persistant split flow into Canada causing a weakness in the northeast and frequent troughing should continue over the next week with more rain and temps averaging near normal (balanced by below and warmer days). Once to this weekend we should see heights slowly rise and subsequent troughs become bit less amplified towards the later part of next week. Signal continues for next burst of heat on/around 6/21. Until then, we muttle (or enjoy) through the amazon-like conditions. When/where its raining daytime highs are well below normal with warm night time lows. When its sunny its Florida-like.

I though tomorrow Saturday and Sunday were going to be sunny and comfortable?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I though tomorrow Saturday and Sunday were going to be sunny and comfortable?

 

Yes this was a general/overall outlook but both days look great and saturday looks california-like dry warm.  Sunday may see clouds and humidity return.    Anyway, we'll see how things progress it'll be interesting as we appraoch the 2009, 2003 and 2006 rainfall levels.  03/06 saw some heat by the end of the month/early July.  2009 was the pits.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

 

Gorgeous shots! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yes this was a general/overall outlook but both days look great and saturday looks california-like dry warm.  Sunday may see clouds and humidity return.    Anyway, we'll see how things progress it'll be interesting as we appraoch the 2009, 2003 and 2006 rainfall levels.  03/06 saw some heat by the end of the month/early July.  2009 was the pits.

yea July 2009 has the lowest monthly max on record at 86...old record was 87 set in 2004...August 2009 was above average with the only official heat wave of the year...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Both the overnight and 12z guidance maintained the warming trend next week. It also looks like we eneter a less wet pattern likely normal precip.  The ECm is blasting 850 temps at or above 20c into the Ohio valley towards the end of next week which look poised to expand this way, setting up our next blast of heat on/around the 21st.  Likely wont be long lived but heights in general look to rise overall and we should maintain a warmer pattern into the last week of the month. Suspect the next heat signal after the 21st will be towards the 26th as the next spoke of heat passes through.  Nothing indicating sustained heat showing up yet more in a day or two and out.  We'll see if heat can become stronger and longer as we dry things out into July.

 

test8.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Both the overnight and 12z guidance maintained the warming trend next week. It also looks like we eneter a less wet pattern likely normal precip.  The ECm is blasting 850 temps at or above 20c into the Ohio valley towards the end of next week which look poised to expand this way, setting up our next blast of heat on/around the 21st.  Likely wont be long lived but heights in general look to rise overall and we should maintain a warmer pattern into the last week of the month. Suspect the next heat signal after the 21st will be towards the 26th as the next spoke of heat passes through.  Nothing indicating sustained heat showing up yet more in a day or two and out.  We'll see if heat can become stronger and longer as we dry things out into July.

 

test8.gif

Any update on the Heat?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Euro ensemble mean has no 90 degree readings at Central Park for the next 10 days.

It would be interesting to know what the longest gap between June 90's at Central Park

is when June 1st starts with a 90 degree high.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Euro ensemble mean has no 90 degree readings at Central Park for the next 10 days.

It would be interesting to know what the longest gap between June 90's at Central Park

is when June 1st starts with a 90 degree high.

 

attachicon.gifGeopotential32at32500hPa_North32America_240.gif

 

attachicon.gifTemperature32at32850hPa_North32America_240.gif

How much more rain did the Euro have for the next 7 days? Much of the 00z run featured a trough to our north possibly cutting off

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Euro ensemble mean has no 90 degree readings at Central Park for the next 10 days.

It would be interesting to know what the longest gap between June 90's at Central Park

is when June 1st starts with a 90 degree high.

 

attachicon.gifGeopotential32at32500hPa_North32America_240.gif

 

attachicon.gifTemperature32at32850hPa_North32America_240.gif

96 in 1895.....6/2-3.....7/7

94 in 1918.....6/2........7/16

93 in 1937.....6/1........6/25

93 in 1987.....6/1........6/15

92 in 1879.....6/1........6/27

92 in 1962.....6/1........6/16

91 in 1925.....6/1........6/3-7

91 in 1989.....6/1........6/26

90 in 1986.....6/1........6/23

90 in 1988.....6/1........6/12

90 in 2011.....6/1........6/8

90 in 2013

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Euro ensemble mean has no 90 degree readings at Central Park for the next 10 days.

It would be interesting to know what the longest gap between June 90's at Central Park

is when June 1st starts with a 90 degree high.

 

attachicon.gifGeopotential32at32500hPa_North32America_240.gif

 

attachicon.gifTemperature32at32850hPa_North32America_240.gif

 

 

For NYC (recently)  first and next 90 degree reading for jun

 

 

 

2012:   jun 20 - jun 21

2011:  jun 1 / jun 8

2010:  Jun 24 / Jun 27

2009:  None in June/Jul

2008 Jun 10-th to Jul 14th

2007: jun 26 / jun 27

2006:  Jun 18 / jul 16

Link to comment
Share on other sites

How much more rain did the Euro have for the next 7 days? Much of the 00z run featured a trough to our north possibly cutting off

 

 

For NYC off the 0z Euro:

 

Monday: .04"

Tuesday: .37"

 

Those were the only 2 days with measurable rain for the next 168 hours (from 0z last night).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Any update on the Heat?

 

 

Starting with its 6/13 00z and the subsequent next 2 runs, the ECM has backed off on prior runs that showed  heat expanding east and is mainly normal  the next next week + (through 6/24) with no real heat (90+).  The ensmbles (as shown by Bluewave) generally support the op with heat confined to the Rockies and Plains and a continued weakness and trough over the northeast.  The GFS/ggem are still showing ridging building into the east by next weekend (6/22) with increasing warmth that weekend.  Not very hot but certainly 85 - 90 tye weather.   Last nights ooz ecm trended warmer and drier overall but no real heat signal.  I suspect its more a case of delayed rather than denied and we end June on a warm to hot note.  So with that I think we watch the week 6/24 - 6/30 for the next 90 degree readings for the area, even the very tropical central park.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Last Jun had back to back cool days on the 4th and 5th (2012) very similar to yesterday and today.  Interesting to see if this is the coolest of the summer (hope so).

 

4th:  63/54

5th: 64/51

 

 

13th: 69/55

14th: ??/

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Euro ensemble mean has no 90 degree readings at Central Park for the next 10 days.

It would be interesting to know what the longest gap between June 90's at Central Park

is when June 1st starts with a 90 degree high.

 

attachicon.gifGeopotential32at32500hPa_North32America_240.gif

 

attachicon.gifTemperature32at32850hPa_North32America_240.gif

 

It's going to hard getting any big heat here, until we get rid the split flow, along the West Coast.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The 12z runs today shifted  a bit to a warmer look as we head into next weekend and the last week of june (6/24).  The gfs/ensmbles are most agressive with the ridge building into the east with the ggem and ecm a bit  slower.   Most guidance has high pressure off the northeast coast so we may be dealing with some of an easterly/SE flow for a time between next fri and sunday.  The core of the heat is still in the Rockies and Plains through the 23rd but there continues to be some hint that during the week of the 24th the next spike of heat does head east.  This has appeared on prior guidance so id be very cautious biting on the heat but on/around the 23rd it looks to be warmer with some heat potential.  Addittionally, once to Wed (6/19) it looks likes as if the models are insisting we dry things out with more normal rainfall. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

test8.gif

 

 

ECm D10 ridging nosing into the east but core of the heat stills into the rockies/plains.

 

.

GZ_PN_240_0000.gif

 

 

 

 

 

Core of the heat remains into the west but notice canada is warming and last pocket of coold over the east fading

 

TT_UU_VV_240_0850.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

96 in 1895.....6/2-3.....7/7

94 in 1918.....6/2........7/16

93 in 1937.....6/1........6/25

93 in 1987.....6/1........6/15

92 in 1879.....6/1........6/27

92 in 1962.....6/1........6/16

91 in 1925.....6/1........6/3-7

91 in 1989.....6/1........6/26

90 in 1986.....6/1........6/23

90 in 1988.....6/1........6/12

90 in 2011.....6/1........6/8

90 in 2013

 

 

For NYC (recently)  first and next 90 degree reading for jun

 

 

 

2012:   jun 20 - jun 21

2011:  jun 1 / jun 8

2010:  Jun 24 / Jun 27

2009:  None in June/Jul

2008 Jun 10-th to Jul 14th

2007: jun 26 / jun 27

2006:  Jun 18 / jul 16

 

Great stats.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...