SACRUS Posted June 29, 2013 Author Share Posted June 29, 2013 Today's highs TEB: 88EWR: 89NYC: 85LGA: 89JFK: 82ISP: 82New Brunswick: 87TTN: 85ACY: 88PHL: 87 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted June 29, 2013 Share Posted June 29, 2013 what are the departures for June thus far for the area? I guess many will be surprised to see everyone at least +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 29, 2013 Share Posted June 29, 2013 actually turned into a fairly pleasant evening... most of the rain missed us and there's a nice breeze plus it just feels drier out.. for those wanting storms congratulations Delaware Pennsylvania and upstate New York once again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 29, 2013 Share Posted June 29, 2013 Could very well see an above normal/humid and possibly wet regime but nothing extreme, meaning no big heat (95+) this July at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted June 29, 2013 Share Posted June 29, 2013 0-5 in severe weather, sounds alit like the yankees batting averages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted June 29, 2013 Share Posted June 29, 2013 Could very well see an above normal/humid and possibly wet regime but nothing extreme, meaning no big heat (95+) this July at least. I wouldn't draw that conclusion. Looking at 12Z ECMWF, and 00Z GFS and GGEM, July 4th-11th look quite steamy hot around here and a day or two of 95+ I think is at least possible. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 29, 2013 Share Posted June 29, 2013 Euro still going with all day wash out on Monday Close to 2 inches of rain for NYC and more in western areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 29, 2013 Share Posted June 29, 2013 Euro still going with all day wash out on Monday Close to 2 inches of rain for NYC and more in western areas Enough is enough with this rain. It's getting annoying now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 29, 2013 Share Posted June 29, 2013 I havent seen the weeklies and am not sure how well they perform with heat, I did read in the New England forum that they were warm through the run Perhaps a different run. Either way, I doubt that the park hits 100 but do think July is warmer than normal and warmer than initially assumptions. The weeklies are similar to the CFS in that the warmer temperatures are toward U.S. Canadian border with cooler temperatures to the south with plenty of troughing and convection. A rough guess between the CFS and weeklies for NYC is a 0 to +1.5 departure in NYC for July. They both agree on no extreme heat of 95 degrees or higher for Central Park since it will be cooler than normal over the Plains where our major heat waves originate. But a place like Newark could easily reach 95 with temps a few degrees cooler at the Park. I would even say no 100 degree days this July for Newark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted June 29, 2013 Share Posted June 29, 2013 Euro still going with all day wash out on Monday Close to 2 inches of rain for NYC and more in western areas What about for today and tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 29, 2013 Share Posted June 29, 2013 What about for today and tomorrow Very little .1 or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 29, 2013 Author Share Posted June 29, 2013 The weeklies are similar to the CFS in that the warmer temperatures are toward U.S. Canadian border with cooler temperatures to the south with plenty of troughing and convection. A rough guess between the CFS and weeklies for NYC is a 0 to +1.5 departure in NYC for July. They both agree on no extreme heat of 95 degrees or higher for Central Park since it will be cooler than normal over the Plains where our major heat waves originate. But a place like Newark could easily reach 95 with temps a few degrees cooler at the Park. I would even say no 100 degree days this July for Newark. CFSv2.NaT2m.20130628.201307.jpg The period jul 1 - jul 5 looks between 3 and 5 above normal. A hotter period between jul 6 and jul 12. That stretch could see some dailies scorchers. By mid month suspect we deal with more war influence (humid). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 29, 2013 Author Share Posted June 29, 2013 Clouds rolling through with clearing into nj now. Looks like another mostly decent weekend day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted June 29, 2013 Share Posted June 29, 2013 And the record for June will likely remain intact. 3rd wettest June on record isn't a bad accomplishment, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 29, 2013 Author Share Posted June 29, 2013 And the record for June will likely remain intact. 3rd wettest June on record isn't a bad accomplishment, though. Can't rule out a scattered storm today or tomorrow, especially later tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 29, 2013 Share Posted June 29, 2013 The period jul 1 - jul 5 looks between 3 and 5 above normal. A hotter period between jul 6 and jul 12. That stretch could see some dailies scorchers. By mid month suspect we deal with more war influence (humid). I think that the lack of heat building toward Chicago where our real heat originates will temper the heat potential July 6-12 even though the War will be very strong. It won't be able to tap the serious heat out west for our area. Instead the real heat will be sent up into Canada. Central Park could see 90 degree readings but nothing like 95+ heat of the last few years. We saw how the heat this week underperformed relative to model forecasts and it came from a better source region for strong heat here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 29, 2013 Author Share Posted June 29, 2013 I think that the lack of heat building toward Chicago where our real heat originates will temper the heat potential July 6-12 even though the War will be very strong. It won't be able to tap the serious heat out west for our area. Instead the real heat will be sent up into Canada. Central Park could see 90 degree readings but nothing like 95+ heat of the last few years. We saw how the heat this week underperformed relative to model forecasts and it came from a better source region for strong heat here. The flow looks to flatten some by next weekend and into the week of the 8th setting up westerly and some nw'rly flow of that could usher in some of that blowtorch heat. I do agree the 12,11,10 heat likely wont be reached, epecially not in any duration, but this is a warm pattern. I actually think the heat mon/tue was hotter than inintial forecasts and clouds/storms wed/thu was the limiting factors for the heat. It will be interesting to track how things proceed. Others have also pointed out this WAR should it be a sustainable feature throughout the summer opens up the risk of tropical storm impacting the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 29, 2013 Share Posted June 29, 2013 I think that the west atlantic ridge could provide some very warm and humid days beginning around the 4th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 29, 2013 Share Posted June 29, 2013 And the record for June will likely remain intact. 3rd wettest June on record isn't a bad accomplishment, though. We had our chance with a slight risk the past 5 days and plenty of storms around. If you're into breaking records, it was just some bad luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 29, 2013 Share Posted June 29, 2013 12z NAM has an area of storms tomorrow that would get NYC over the top for the record. 0z euro has some rain as well. Gonna be a very close call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 29, 2013 Share Posted June 29, 2013 12z gfs keeps the heaviest of the rain to our west Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fantom X Posted June 29, 2013 Share Posted June 29, 2013 SST's have responded nicely in the past week due to the sustained warmth 65° last Sunday 71° today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 Mr.G just mentioned that Central Park is at 2nd Place with 10.10" of rain. All we need is .17" of rain to beat the all time record set back in 2003 (10.26"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 Mr.G just mentioned that Central Park is at 2nd Place with 10.10" of rain. All we need is .17" of rain to beat the all time record set back in 2003 (10.26"). Thanks but we're all pretty much aware of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 30, 2013 Author Share Posted June 30, 2013 Todays highs: TEB: 89NYC: 83EWR: 85LGA: 85JFK: 80ISP: 79New Brunswick: 88TTN: 86ACY: 83PHL: 88 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 Amazing that the record will likely stand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 Amazing that the record will likely stand. Jeff Smith thinks we have a pretty good shot at it tomorrow..err... today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 30, 2013 Author Share Posted June 30, 2013 00z gfs has the westen atl ridge building back raising heights to 592 dm wed pm thru sunday.. Classic summer weather hazy, hot. humid. 90s on the 4th looking possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 After this trough gets out of the way things look to heat up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 We'll see if one of these scattered storms can pass over Central Park. All that is needed for the June record is 0.18" before midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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