winterwarlock Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 storm formed out of nowhere gave one minute of rain here in southern somerset county, the radar shows reds and yellows but nothing coming down now meanwhile given how there were calls for upper 60s and extreme wetness last week for the end of this week and the weekend it is interesting that in general as we get closer to these events the models back off on the doom and gloom. Friday and Saturday may end up mostly dry with summery conditions and just some scattered afternoon showers if that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 My main concern for NYC is any of the storms will need go over the water and will probably weaken whatever does come our way. That is true -- storm motion is not favorable for us. Might be hard for any surface based convection to take off on the water. We'll see. For NJ, though, that won't really be an issue. Though anyway, perhaps as the synoptic boundaries get closer, storm motions will shift a bit more easterly with time -- perhaps making any NYC ish area tornado threat being from a cluster of storms that have localized embedded rotation near a boundary or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 That is true -- storm motion is not favorable for us. Might be hard for any surface based convection to take off on the water. We'll see. For NJ, though, that won't really be an issue. Though anyway, perhaps as the synoptic boundaries get closer, storm motions will shift a bit more easterly with time -- perhaps making any NYC ish area tornado threat being from a cluster of storms that have localized embedded rotation near a boundary or something. Yea it still need to be monitored, I still think overall our best severe chances are usually when storms come from a slightly northerly direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Looks like the storms over Delaware now will be the ones affecting us tonight. - Pretty cool to see how far the sea breeze pushed inland today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shades Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 meanwhile given how there were calls for upper 60s and extreme wetness last week for the end of this week and the weekend it is interesting that in general as we get closer to these events the models back off on the doom and gloom. Friday and Saturday may end up mostly dry with summery conditions and just some scattered afternoon showers if that. This was the misconception of seeing high QPF totals along the eastern US. Many people are still in Spring time mode, interpreting any forecast totals with stratiform rains rather than scattered convection associated with a summer pattern. Medium range forecasting will always stretch out in a broad field any convective qpf with widespread totals due to their wider scale/grid. It is warranted however if there is an organized tropical system involved, or a robust shortwaves. Troughs aren't the same beast that they are in the cooler months. Happens time and time again in interpretation, broad QPF fields in the summer usually only verify in scattered or localized areas (not taking into account tropical systems or well developed midlatitude features). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Low cloud deck streaming north off the ocean now here in Western Nassau. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 the low level jet is increasing on KDIX VAD so we could see an increase in tornado potential over the next few hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Weak couplet now with the western NJ cell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 This is the most frustrating experience.... to see places to the north, south, east and west of the city get storms and we get nada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 This is the most frustrating experience.... to see places to the north, south, east and west of the city get storms and we get nada. Our stuff is coming from DE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 This is the most frustrating experience.... to see places to the north, south, east and west of the city get storms and we get nada.Look at the radar in south Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 storm formed out of nowhere gave one minute of rain here in southern somerset county, the radar shows reds and yellows but nothing coming down now meanwhile given how there were calls for upper 60s and extreme wetness last week for the end of this week and the weekend it is interesting that in general as we get closer to these events the models back off on the doom and gloom. Friday and Saturday may end up mostly dry with summery conditions and just some scattered afternoon showers if that. We shall see but there was NO HEATWAVE this week...lol ....and no sign of any heatwaves coming...July looking near to below normal from the plains on east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Look at the radar in south Jersey. No, I don't want to look at mesoscale analysis and radar and actually see whats going on! I want to come here and whine about not getting a thunderstorm instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 The storms over SNJ are becoming more linear and should push through here later this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Yup instability aint the best but its not the worse either and I like storms that come in from the S/SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Cells in SNJ look to be headed my direction in Monmouth. Gorgeous out now. 76F and breezy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 New MD now says a another watch for NYC north is unlikely: MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1274 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0558 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN NY/LONG ISLAND INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 272258Z - 280000Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS WW 377 AND INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF SRN NY/LONG ISLAND. THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND A NEW WW IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. DISCUSSION...CONVECTION ACROSS ERN PA INTO NJ HAS REMAINED LOOSELY ORGANIZED MAINLY DUE TO PRESENCE OF MCV AND ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER FLOW. HOWEVER...STORMS HAVE NOT SHOWN SIGNS OF SEVERE CHARACTERISTICS /EXCEPT IN ISOLATED INSTANCES ACROSS PARTS OF PA/ FOR AT LEAST THE LAST HOUR OR SO. WHILE STORMS MAY BE MAINTAINED AS THEY TRACK TOWARD THE E/NE INTO A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...SEVERE THREAT REMAINS QUESTIONABLE. WHILE PARTS OF SRN NY IN WRN LONG ISLAND HAVE REMAINED UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR TO SCATTERED CLOUDINESS...MUCH OF THE REST OF SRN NEW ENGLAND HAS HAD CLOUD COVER TODAY...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE NOTED COMPARED TO THOSE ACROSS SE PA INTO NJ. ADDITIONALLY...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BEGIN TO COOL/STABILIZE. SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL AS STORMS TRACK TOWARD THE NYC METRO AND SRN NY. THEREFORE...A WW IS NOT EXPECTED DOWNSTREAM OF WW 377 AT THIS TIME...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. ..LEITMAN/THOMPSON.. 06/27/2013 ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM... LAT...LON 41217556 41787536 42227441 42127327 41567234 41007190 40477359 40537426 41217556 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Yup instability aint the best but its not the worse either and I like storms that come in from the S/SW. It will probably help NYC get closer to the record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Stiff seabreeze going in Lindenhurst now, which feels refreshing, but I know it's also killing any chances of severe wx. On my way back to DC in an hour, so I'm hoping to cross paths with the action making its way northward through Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 It will probably help NYC get closer to the record. Exactly and some thunder/lightning is a bonus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 No, I don't want to look at mesoscale analysis and radar and actually see whats going on! I want to come here and whine about not getting a thunderstorm instead. this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 I'm at 75 degrees now with a nice breeze...it's getting dark to my west...It doesn't feel that bad out there...There are some heavy showers in Jersey so a heavy shower later this evening could happen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 this He was talking about you dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 ...turned out pretty nice here on the east end beaches..nice stretch of sunny weather from about 1130a till about 3p..then the low stratus took over..wind was ESE all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 HRRR blows the storms up right before it hits NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 28, 2013 Author Share Posted June 28, 2013 Today's highs TEB: 90NYC: 86EWR: 87LGA: 85JFk: 85ISP: 82New Brunswick: 89TTN: 88ACY: 85PHL: 89 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Winterwarlocks area is getting blasted. Looks like the worst is going to over western areas. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ804 PM EDT THU JUN 27 2013THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN HUNTERDON COUNTY... MERCER COUNTY... SOUTHERN SOMERSET COUNTY...* UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT...* AT 758 PM EDT...RAIN GAGE REPORTS OF UP TO 2.5 INCHES IN ONE HOUR HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN SECTIONS OF MERCER COUNTY...ALONG WITH ROADWAY FLOODING. DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES AN ADDITIONAL ONE INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. A FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS THEREFORE BEEN ISSUED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Winterwarlocks area is getting blasted. Looks like the worst is going to over western areas. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 804 PM EDT THU JUN 27 2013 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN HUNTERDON COUNTY... MERCER COUNTY... SOUTHERN SOMERSET COUNTY... * UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT... * AT 758 PM EDT...RAIN GAGE REPORTS OF UP TO 2.5 INCHES IN ONE HOUR HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN SECTIONS OF MERCER COUNTY...ALONG WITH ROADWAY FLOODING. DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES AN ADDITIONAL ONE INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. A FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS THEREFORE BEEN ISSUED. Should be coming right over me. Very, very dark here right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCsnow17 Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Looks as though the wrf had a good handle on this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Loud thunder in Jersey City Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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