WE GOT HIM Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Although there is some marine influence, tainting the instability near NYC and east, I really don't think it's going to be that big of a hindrance. It's still around 80/70 in most areas, and MU CAPE is still pretty high -- so it's not like storms would instantly die. Any sea-breeze boundary could help to trigger more lift despite meager mid-level lapse rates and the marine layer. Downdraft CAPE is still expected to be pretty high near NYC as time goes on. Unless more storms form ahead of the batch the next few hours,I think t-storm will have tendency to become more elevated as the reach NYC metro. But I can't rule out an isolated severe t-storm. Especially near boundaries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 every model keeps most of the rain west of us tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Here is my temp graph from Queens Marine layer in full swing =( ESE winds are knocking down the instability somewhat in NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 79 right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Unless more storms form ahead of the batch the next few hours,I think t-storm will have tendency to become more elevated as the reach NYC metro. But I can't rule out an isolated severe t-storm. Especially near boundaries. Agreed. And storms that form out ahead might get swallowed up by a main line, anyway. This is why the best tornado threat is SW of NYC -- discrete convection may last a tad longer there before getting overrun by the more synoptic, linear forcing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 every model keeps most of the rain west of us tonight 12z ECMWF takes the stuff that does form in SE PA tonight, into Oswego, NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 12z ECMWF takes the stuff that does form in SE PA tonight, into Oswego, NY 12z ECMWF drops .51" of rain tonight for NYC though. So a decent amount of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 12z ECMWF drops .51" of rain tonight for NYC though. So a decent amount of rain. Do you have the soundings for other locations? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 12z ECMWF takes the stuff that does form in SE PA tonight, into Oswego, NY There's quite a bit of activity firing up in Delaware now. Lets see if those cells can move this way or form into a line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Rain has commenced! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Weak mid-level lapse rates doom northeast severe weather outbreaks more often than that. It's hard to find widespread severe weather from truly long-lived severe squall lines without good mid-level lapse rates. ML CAPE is still okay, though -- largely thanks to the moisture. Downdraft CAPE is decent, however. Though this is where the marine layer would hurt -- weakening the low-level lapse rates and thus weakening downdraft potential. And without strong mid-level lapse rates, it might be hard to find storms/convection strong enough to promote enough mixing to get those stronger winds down to the surface in that weaker environment. Not sure if elevated convection will cut it. Perhaps I'm just rambling at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Rain has commenced! Figures..you get the one shower in the entire state Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Here is my temp graph from Queens; Marine layer in full swing =(That graph doesn't make much sense...dew point looks higher than temperature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Figures..you get the one shower in the entire state Hey I'll take it, we've missed the last three days except for a quick heavy shower late Tuesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 That graph doesn't make much sense...dew point looks higher than temperature. The left legend is for the temp, the right is for the dewpoint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 SBCAPE has increased quite a bit now along with the effective bulk shear. Now in the 20-30kt area for western and southern areas. This has causes a recent increase in super cell params. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Shear must be increasing, low level clouds are racing from the southeast, while mid level clouds are moving from the southwest, and upper level clouds are moving from the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Shear must be increasing, low level clouds are racing from the south east, while mid level clouds are moving from the south west, and upper level clouds are moving from the west It is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 I think even though we've been on the dryish side these past 4 days, we'll get our boom sometime this summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 I never get my hopes up for severe tstorms as 95% of the time they are let downs, anything severe is usually unexpected for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1270 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0257 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 377... VALID 271957Z - 272130Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 377 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO SHOULD GRADUALLY DEVELOP E/NEWD ACROSS PRIMARILY ERN PA/MD...DE AND NJ. A DOWNSTREAM WW ISSUANCE IS PROBABLE BY EARLY EVENING IN PORTIONS OF NERN PA TO SRN NY. DISCUSSION...STRONGEST/LONGEST-LIVED HIGH REFLECTIVITY CORES HAVE PERSISTED IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF AN MCV CENTERED JUST S OF UNV AS OF 1945Z. CO-LOCATED WITH THE PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE AND WITH MODEST SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS DOWNSTREAM...A SUPERCELL WAS NOTED EARLIER IN JUNIATA/PERRY COUNTY PA BUT HAS SINCE DISSIPATED. SUFFICIENT LOW/MID-LEVEL SHEAR HAS BEEN SAMPLED BY CCX VWP DATA TO SUPPORT TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AMIDST A RELATIVELY CHAOTIC CONVECTIVE MODE. WITH ADDITIONAL TSTMS DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SECOND MCV SHIFTING NEWD ACROSS CNTRL MD AND RELATIVELY PROMINENT CU FIELD DOWNSTREAM IN THE NORTHEAST...STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE SUSTAINED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A CONSOLIDATED CLUSTER MAY ULTIMATELY EVOLVE NEWD WITH A RISK FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. TO THE SW OF THE MCV/S...SEVERE THREAT IS NIL AND PORTIONS OF WW IN VA/DC COULD BE SAFELY CLEARED. ..GRAMS.. 06/27/2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Surface base discrete convection trying to form to our SW, as that area has lots of surface base CAPE and is still relatively far away from the main, linear forcing. The tornado threat is thus better the further SW you go, but it's certainly a good sign that surface based convection is firing that far ahead of the main boundary. That supports the SPC potentially extending the watch to the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Euripides Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 I never get my hopes up for severe tstorms as 95% of the time they are let downs, anything severe is usually unexpected for me. So agree with this..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Surface base discrete convection trying to form to our SW, as that area has lots of surface base CAPE and is still relatively far away from the main, linear forcing. The tornado threat is thus better the further SW you go, but it's certainly a good sign that surface based convection is firing that far ahead of the main boundary. That supports the SPC potentially extending the watch to the northeast. My main concern for NYC is any of the storms will need go over the water and will probably weaken whatever does come our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 18z NAM gets the storms to NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Joe Bastardi and his son just witnessed a tornado 1/2 mile away from their home near State College. They posted a video of it, as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 18z NAM gets the storms to NYC Does not look as impressive as 12z though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Does not look as impressive as 12z though In my opinion it doesn't really have a good handle on what's going on down in the Mid-Atlantic right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Easily over 1" of rain in the last 15 mins.. My pool is spilling water off the top and the extremely heavy rain continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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