supermeh Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 EDIT: Seriously? Was ALL of that needed? So close, yet so far ouch.png lol. NYC can't buy a watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Damn, NENJ and NYC can't get anything going up this way recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 ^^ EDIT: Seriously? Was ALL of that needed? So close, yet so far ouch.png I'll be able to see the tornado from my house but it won't come to my town ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 ^^ EDIT: Seriously? Was ALL of that needed? So close, yet so far ouch.png From your sig "There's no crying in meteorology" Still covers a lot of folks in this sub forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 All already seeing s nice couplet west of Harrisburg,PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 From your sig "There's no crying in meteorology" Still covers a lot of folks in this sub forum I think he was referring to the volume of text posted which the majority of it included VA, Maryland, Delaware, DC, and central PA counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Main concern and reasoning behind the tornado watch is probably from any discrete super cells that may form out ahead of the main batch. You can see one trying to get going now north of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 All already seeing s nice couplet west of Harrisburg,PA. Bang TORNADO WARNING PAC067-099-271900- /O.NEW.KCTP.TO.W.0003.130627T1815Z-130627T1900Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 215 PM EDT THU JUN 27 2013 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN JUNIATA COUNTY PENNSYLVANIA... SOUTHWESTERN PERRY COUNTY PENNSYLVANIA... * UNTIL 300 PM EDT * AT 210 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THE STORM CONTAINING THE POSSIBLE TORNADO WAS NEAR BIG SPRING STATE PARK... MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. * LOCATIONS INCLUDED IN THE WARNING... BIG SPRING STATE PARK...HONEY GROVE...LOYSVILLE...PERULACK...SPRUCE HILL AND WALNUT. WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER INSIDE NOW. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST LEVEL OF A STURDY BUILDING. PUT AS MANY WALLS BETWEEN YOU AND THE OUTSIDE AS YOU CAN. AVOID WINDOWS. PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS. PLEASE REPORT FUNNEL CLOUDS...STRONG WINDS OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE THROUGH TWITTER OR FACEBOOK. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT THURSDAY EVENING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. && LAT...LON 4023 7761 4022 7765 4025 7764 4025 7767 4027 7766 4029 7767 4026 7770 4027 7770 4034 7773 4059 7750 4035 7721 4028 7741 4031 7736 4019 7761 TIME...MOT...LOC 1815Z 221DEG 12KT 4031 7762 $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 I think he was referring to the volume of text posted which the majority of it included VA, Maryland, Delaware, DC, and central PA counties. Bingo. A simple discussion post along with a graphic would have been sufficient. Tornado warning up in Pennsylvania. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Damn, NENJ and NYC can't get anything going up this way recently. The poor midlevel lapse rates will probably limit the extent of the severe potential up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Damn, NENJ and NYC can't get anything going up this way recently.what else is new... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 The poor midlevel lapse rates will probably limit the extent of the severe potential up this way. laps.gif Using that reasoning what do you make of the severe cells in central PA that are in an area of very poor mid-level lapse rates? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Watch looks outlined correctly. We are already under marine influence over NE NJ and NYC. Winds have switched more E/SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Tornado Watch until 10pm for NJ. Except for NE NJ It seems that -- not coincidentally -- the watch is for the entire Mt Holly CWA. I think both Upton and Mt Holly collaborated with SPC, and Upton was more cautious while Mt Holly was more aggressive. Probably not the entire reasoning behind the watch being the way it is, but it probably has something to do with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 That couplet out in PA is very well defined now on radar. Seems to be getting stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Using that reasoning what do you make of the severe cells in central PA that are in an area of very poor mid-level lapse rates? Those are closer to the best forcing with the developing surface low which will pass to our west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 It looks to me as if a squall line is forming in central PA rather than tornadic super cells. I'd assume the convection will spread east towards NYC as kinematics become more favorable with a 2 standard deviation surface low approaching our area. Still partly sunny here in the Bronx as a backdoor front is draped across LI with Montauk having east winds whereas Islip has reported southerly flow. That could become a focus for severe along the cold frontal boundary. BTW posting all that text is unnecessary. It was great content but too much... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Those are closer to the best forcing with the developing surface low which will pass to our west. Well either way the further west you are today it seems the better odds you have and that's where I live. Most of the high res models get the storms to about where the watch ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Those are closer to the best forcing with the developing surface low which will pass to our west. The best forcing should shift northeast with time, however. I think it's more so a matter of how strong any marine layer is that forms. But any sea-breeze could also trigger more boundaries, too -- so I'm not going to completely dismiss the potential for areas further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Still thinking that most of the (if any) tornado activity stays concentrated in south east Pennsylvania around the Lancaster area. EBWD looks marginal at best in NJ (max 27 knots) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 ^^ EDIT: Seriously? Was ALL of that needed? So close, yet so far ouch.png That is like the 3 or 4th time this year we have been just out of a watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 The severe threat is better further west because they have strong mid-level flow. Although some stronger forcing should shift eastward with time, the better forcing and stronger mid-level flow may not arrive until after peak heating as you head closer to NYC. That combined with any marine layer could halter the threat closer to NYC and east. It will come down to timing, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 From the Philly forum Tightning up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 NSSL WRF has been on the nose for the last 2 months, 00Z run last night showed core of TSTMS crossing NRN and NE NJ 23-02Z and missing most of NYC/LI and even the ERN Hudson Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 There is enough SB CAPE and moisture out ahead of the main lifting mechanism for some discrete, surface-based convection. However, relatively slow storm motion and storm motion vectors being relatively parallel to the boundary will make it hard to any discrete convection to last very long. Still, brief discrete convection could yield a couple of brief, weak tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 NSSL WRF has been on the nose for the last 2 months, 00Z run last night showed core of TSTMS crossing NRN and NE NJ 23-02Z and missing most of NYC/LI and even the ERN Hudson Valley. HRRR had the storms missing us the past few run but in the current run it looks like we get rocked (so we will see) - The way we have been going with storm this year in NYC they will prob go north, south, east, and west of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 HRRR had the storms missing us the past few run but in the current run it looks like we get rocked (so we will see) - The way we have been going with storm this year in NYC they will prob go north, south, east, and west of us link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Although there is some marine influence, tainting the instability near NYC and east, I really don't think it's going to be that big of a hindrance. It's still around 80/70 in most areas, and MU CAPE is still pretty high -- so it's not like storms would instantly die. Any sea-breeze boundary could help to trigger more lift despite meager mid-level lapse rates and the marine layer. Downdraft CAPE is still expected to be pretty high near NYC as time goes on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Although there is some marine influence, tainting the instability near NYC and east, I really don't think it's going to be that big of a hindrance. It's still around 80/70 in most areas, and MU CAPE is still pretty high -- so it's not like storms would instantly die. Any sea-breeze boundary could help to trigger more lift despite meager mid-level lapse rates and the marine layer. Downdraft CAPE is still expected to be pretty high near NYC as time goes on. Here is my temp graph from Queens; Marine layer in full swing =( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Storms should be moving into increasing SBCAPE (centered around SE PA) which should help intenisfy the cells as they move eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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