ict1523 Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Think it's been three days now with thunder and lightning but not a drop of rain. Storms have dodged me to the north, south, east, and west. Oh well, it's bound to balance out eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 have only had two very brief showers the past 3 days IMBY totaling less than .10 combined Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 27, 2013 Author Share Posted June 27, 2013 A few more hours of sun then clouds and storms will move in. Until then some very warm conditions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 I think we'll have enough destabilization today to support organized convection later. SPC was worried about the lack of destabilization with their early morning outlook..but the sun looks to shine for at least a few more hours. The somewhat meager lapse rates might put a lid on what otherwise would have been a bigger threat -- and the timing isn't great for our area with the track of the surface low. That said I think there could be a swath of wind reports from convection stretching from the Mid Atlantic and SE PA into our area. The storms may become elevated by the time they reach points east of NYC tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irishmick9 Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 I don't have time to post but Mt Holly going with some pretty strong wording for NW Jersey later into early overnight. Mentioned slight tornadic potential with strong signal for significant severe. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Mt. Holly POPS WILL BE FURTHER ADJUSTED DOWN FOR THIS AFTN EXCEPT DEL VALLEYWEST AND I 80 NORTH WHERE TSTMS WILL DEVELOP SOMETIME LATE TODAYOR THIS EVENING. THERE IS STILL A SMALL CHC OF CONVECTION IN S NJ/DEAROUND 18Z NEAR ANY CONVERGENCE ZONE BUT THE REAL DEAL ACTION WILLBE LATE IN THE DAY IN E PA/E/MD.THE NEG TILT SHORT WAVE WITH ASSTD SFC LOW DEEPENING INTO PA ARRIVESLATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING...RUNNING INTO 1200J ML CAPE EXTENDEDN-S FROM THE HUD VALLEY THRU NJ-DELMARVA AND 30KT OF 0-6KM SHEARNE PA AND NNJ. THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE SFC LOW INTO PA LATETODAY IS FOR ME A STRONG SIGNAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SVR...AS FLUXESINCREASE AND INTENSITY OF THE SFC LOW IS ANOMALOUS (-2SD) HERE FORTHIS TIME OF YEAR.SVR AND FF POTENTIAL IF CONVECTION OCCURS BETWEEN 4 PM AND 2 AMFRIDAY OVER NE PA AND NNJ. FFG IS SO HIGH IN NE PA THAT NO FFA THERE.THERE IS ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY IMO..NEAR AND NOF RTE 80 WHERE BETTER 0-3KM SHEAR IS EXPECTED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irishmick9 Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Thanks Superstorm93 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 I think we'll have enough destabilization today to support organized convection later. SPC was worried about the lack of destabilization with their early morning outlook..but the sun looks to shine for at least a few more hours. The somewhat meager lapse rates might put a lid on what otherwise would have been a bigger threat -- and the timing isn't great for our area with the track of the surface low. That said I think there could be a swath of wind reports from convection stretching from the Mid Atlantic and SE PA into our area. The storms may become elevated by the time they reach points east of NYC tonight. Yea models from last night did not show this much sun. - 84 here in Queens with a 73 dew point (looks like sea breeze just came in) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 A storm may be trying to go up over northern Queens again clouds are bubbling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Visible satellite imagery shows an additional area of clearing ahead of what seems to be the focal point for initial convective development near the Chesapeake at the moment. As this shifts northeast I think we will begin to see convection develop across Southeast PA/Southwest NJ and traverse through the state. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_PA/anim8vis.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 30% wind added for portions of NJ, but coincidentally ends just before Upton's CWA http://kamala.cod.edu/SPC/day1.wind.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 A storm may be trying to go up over northern Queens again clouds are bubbling Just got back from Erskine St. Cloud peaks were going up looking north on Cross Bay Blvd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Visible satellite imagery shows an additional area of clearing ahead of what seems to be the focal point for initial convective development near the Chesapeake at the moment. As this shifts northeast I think we will begin to see convection develop across Southeast PA/Southwest NJ and traverse through the state. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_PA/anim8vis.html We've had a lot more sun than the models were suggesting today. Convection should start to fire within the next hour or two. I haven't checked the instability parameters but I'm assuming they are on the rise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 have only had two very brief showers the past 3 days IMBY totaling less than .10 combined Most areas missed having there 2nd heat wave yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN IMPULSE TURNING EAST OF THE NORTH CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...COUPLED WITH AN ASSOCIATED BELT OF MODEST LOWER/MID-LEVEL FLOW...COULD ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN VIRGINIA/MARYLAND AND THE DELMARVA PENINSULA INTO NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. A LINE OR CLUSTER OF STORMS APPEARS POSSIBLE...WITH THE RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. OTHER SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE IN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY...NORTHWARD INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK...AND SOUTHWARD...TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED PERTURBATION COULD CONTRIBUTE TO ANOTHER CLUSTER OVER STORMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF ALABAMA AND GEORGIA...WHICH COULD PERHAPS DEVELOP SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Not bad at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 The main batch of rain is taking its sweet time getting here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 60% chance for a watch soon: MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1266 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1204 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...UPPER MID-ATLANTIC...NORTHEAST CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 271704Z - 271900Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN MCV SHIFTING NEWD FROM NRN VA. STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ALONG WITH CONTINUED DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS WITH A PRIMARY RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL. DISCUSSION...16Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 1006 MB CYCLONE NEAR THE MD PANHANDLE WITH AN MCV EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS NRN VA AHEAD OF THE BROADER MID-LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE HEATED WELL INTO THE 80S DOWNSTREAM OF THE THICKER CLOUD DECKS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCV AND ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. A NARROW BELT OF MODERATELY STRONG MID-LEVEL SWLYS /AROUND 30-35 KT/ WAS SAMPLED IN CCX/BGM VWP DATA AND THIS ENHANCEMENT SHOULD SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW SAMPLED IN AKQ VWP DATA SHOULD DEVELOP NEWD ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. SETUP MAY YIELD SEVERAL CLUSTERS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AS THE MAIN HAZARDS...WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE WITH TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST. ..GRAMS/KERR.. 06/27/2013 ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX... http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1266.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Looks like that cell which developed in Queens is dropping very heavy rain over northern Nassau county now. Can see the cloud top from southern Brooklyn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 The main batch of rain is taking its sweet time getting here. It's not even moving in our direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Nassau storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 It's not even moving in our direction Yeah....ok Every model run today gets the core of heavy rain as far east as northern NJ. Anyway we'll know in the next few hours who is right Even the higher resolution models are having a very difficult time nailing down the exact locations that will see the moisture trains over the next several days. Fairly amplifed trough building in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 We are not going to break the june record. It seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 We are not going to break the june record. It seems.Dude, seriously... With the high PWATS we can easily break the record in less than an hour of heavy rain. Let the next few days play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Yeah....ok Every model run today gets the core of heavy rain as far east as northern NJ. Anyway we'll know in the next few hours who is right Even the higher resolution models are having a very difficult time nailing down the exact locations that will see the moisture trains over the next several days. Fairly amplifed trough building in Yeah but as earthlight said our stuff is probably going to develop over SE PA/SW NJ and move in our direction. The stuff in central PA does not look like its going to reach most of us based on its current trajectory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 We are not going to break the june record. It seems. Nah, we'll easily break the record. There's only .47" of rain needed to break the record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Tornado Watch until 10pm for NJ. Except for NE NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Did not expect this! WOUS64 KWNS 271754 WOU7 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 377 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 200 PM EDT THU JUN 27 2013 TORNADO WATCH 377 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS DCC001-280200- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0377.130627T1800Z-130628T0200Z/ DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA DEC001-003-005-280200- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0377.130627T1800Z-130628T0200Z/ DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX MDC003-005-009-011-013-015-017-021-025-027-029-031-033-035-037- 041-043-510-280200- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0377.130627T1800Z-130628T0200Z/ MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CAROLINE CARROLL CECIL CHARLES FREDERICK HARFORD HOWARD KENT MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES QUEEN ANNE'S ST. MARYS TALBOT WASHINGTON MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BALTIMORE CITY NJC001-005-007-009-011-015-019-021-023-025-027-029-033-035-037- 041-280200- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0377.130627T1800Z-130628T0200Z/ NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATLANTIC BURLINGTON CAMDEN CAPE MAY CUMBERLAND GLOUCESTER HUNTERDON MERCER MIDDLESEX MONMOUTH MORRIS OCEAN SALEM SOMERSET SUSSEX WARREN PAC001-011-017-025-029-037-041-043-045-055-057-061-067-071-075- 077-087-089-091-093-095-097-099-101-107-109-119-133-280200- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0377.130627T1800Z-130628T0200Z/ PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BERKS BUCKS CARBON CHESTER COLUMBIA CUMBERLAND DAUPHIN DELAWARE FRANKLIN FULTON HUNTINGDON JUNIATA LANCASTER LEBANON LEHIGH MIFFLIN MONROE MONTGOMERY MONTOUR NORTHAMPTON NORTHUMBERLAND PERRY PHILADELPHIA SCHUYLKILL SNYDER UNION YORK VAC013-059-107-600-280200- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0377.130627T1800Z-130628T0200Z/ VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARLINGTON FAIRFAX LOUDOUN VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFAX ANZ430-431-530-531-532-533-534-535-536-537-538-539-540-541-542- 280200- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0377.130627T1800Z-130628T0200Z/ CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA PATAPSCO RIVER INCLUDING BALTIMORE HARBOR CHESTER RIVER TO QUEENSTOWN MD EASTERN BAY CHOPTANK RIVER TO CAMBRIDGE MD AND THE LITTLE CHOPTANK RIVER PATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MD ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...CTP... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0377.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 ^^ EDIT: Seriously? Was ALL of that needed? So close, yet so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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