WE GOT HIM Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 the HRRR has those storms by Philly headed our way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 26, 2013 Author Share Posted June 26, 2013 Last 2 days of guidance have consitently forecasted the WAR to build in stronger than what previous runs were showing for the 7/1 - 7/5 period . This will create a deep tropical fetch on a strong southerly flow with higher heights along the coast and a trough in the Lakes caught between the moster west coast ridge and WAR. We should see overall warmer than normal temps with daytime highs in the 80s with warmer lows and very humid conditions with DT's in the upper 60s/low 70s or higher. Outside chance of 90 degrees on the sunnier day(s) with 850 temps still projected in the 15c - 20c range, but plentiful clouds will limit that kind of heat. I think once past Sat its more daily scattered showers (with some soakers) rather than widespread rainouts that we may experience later thu into saturday. Still, these scatered Florida-like storms could yield some hefty totals the between 1st and the 5th. Beyond there seems that the flow flattens a bit and we may see a spike of heat on/around 7/6 into the week of the 8th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1252 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0311 PM CDT WED JUN 26 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN NY...SRN CT...NRN NJ...ERN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 262011Z - 262215Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SVR STORMS WILL EXIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED...THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS CURRENTLY UNLIKELY. DISCUSSION...AREAS OF CLEARING ARE SUPPORTING AROUND 500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE ACROSS THE AREA...AS MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS ARE THINNING/MOVING OFFSHORE. LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG A WEAK SFC WIND-SHIFT AXIS/REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARCING FROM S-CNTRL NY INTO SWRN PA MAY FOCUS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...WHILE ADDITIONAL STORMS POTENTIALLY BLOSSOM FROM A BOUNDARY-LAYER CUMULUS FIELD BECOMING INCREASINGLY AGITATED ACROSS PARTS OF ERN PA. THE PRESENCE OF AROUND 30-40 KT OF MID-LEVEL WLY/S PER OKX VWP DATA MAY SUPPORT SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR FOR A FEW ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORM CLUSTERS WITH SPORADIC DMGG WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. HOWEVER...IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONGER BUOYANCY OWING TO LIMITED LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...CONVECTIVE VIGOR AND SVR POTENTIAL MAY BE LIMITED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 The 18z NAM has continued to shift the axis of heavier rainfall south and now makes Thursday afternoon and night pretty much a washout based on high res sim radars from the city on west. Early Saturday is dry until the moisture moves in during the early afternoon from the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 The 18z NAM has continued to shift the axis of heavier rainfall south and now makes Thursday afternoon and night pretty much a washout based on high res sim radars from the city on west. Early Saturday is dry until the moisture moves in during the early afternoon from the south. 4Km NAM keeps most of the "washout" stuff well west of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 4Km NAM keeps most of the "washout" stuff well west of the city. ptot35.gif Sim radar argues otherwise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 If we go with the recent trends I bet it does stays to our west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 Sim radar argues otherwise lol A simulated radar product is not something to live or die by. Total QPF don't lie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 lol A simulated radar product is not something to live or die by. Total QPF don't lie But the simulated radar shows a supercell over my house. I was all excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 Both the NAM and GFS show a 30-40kt LLJ with Pwats near 2" over NYC area tomorrow night. Any storms that train could produce locally 2"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 While this whole deal of storms moving to my north and south virtually every day is rather comical, I do feel like it could get old very quickly if I still don't see at least a nice CG stroke or something by the end of this week. There has been a significant thunderstorm drought here ever since mid April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 this is a heavy rain sounding if i've ever seen one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 While this whole deal of storms moving to my north and south virtually every day is rather comical, I do feel like it could get old very quickly if I still don't see at least a nice CG stroke or something by the end of this week. There has been a significant thunderstorm drought here ever since mid April lol tell me about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 lol A simulated radar product is not something to live or die by. Total QPF don't lie Fine by me, still 2.0" plus for my backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 getting a little shower now...it was 85 a little while ago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 Edison/Metuchen look to be getting a decent storm in the next few minutes. Hear alot of thunder just to my south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 some showers headed towards Queens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 Heavy rain with some thunder and lightning in freehold.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 Looks like a few hours of sun and some late afternoon highs. EWR at 86. Some may be able to get the heatwave some have already with some 90 degree readings on Sunday. Sunday highs : TEB: 91 NYC: 88 EWR: 89 LGA: 87 JFk: 80 ISP: 82 New Brunswick: 88 TTN: 86 ACY: 83 PHL: 85 Only one spot officially hit 90 Sunday. All areas hit 90 + Monday and yesterday. Many areas did not hit 90 today so no heatwave for most areas that count.....FAIL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 Awesome storm ongoing w/ sick CTG lightning here in Monmouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 Heavy rain with some thunder and lightning in freehold.. Picked up a quick .14" looks like more on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 Awesome storm ongoing w/ sick CTG lightning here in Monmouth. Yes CTG was impressive here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Another day..again..storms missing nyc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Another day..again..storms missing nyc.Don't you live in NJ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 27, 2013 Author Share Posted June 27, 2013 Today's highs. Clouds nextremely annoying and got in the way of more 90s. But still warm/humid and it looks to continue through the first half of july. TEB: 86NYC: 85EWR: 89LGA: 89JFk: 85ISP: 87New Brunswick: 89TTN: 89ACY: 90PHL: 91 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sb7881 Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Is there any chance that Saturday could have bright times with sunshine with just the afternoon and evening storms with some drying Saturday night with some breaks in the clouds between 6:00pm and 9:00pm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Picked up 0.18" or rain from a storm that moved through earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Constant lightning going off south of here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Don't you live in NJ? yes. 3 minutes from the george washington bridge to nyc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Absolutely nothing here all day but overcast I'm 0 for 3 so far with these "heavy rain" days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.