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June 2013 Observations and Discussions


SACRUS

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Yep, agree with the above posts, and believe that June will not be a warm month overall with respect to normal. Our next heat wave will likely occur in the typical June 15th-30th time frame. Until then, wet and generally cooler than normal. Summer of sustained heat this will not be, as Yoda would say.

Anything can happen.

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Most guidance over the last day  is strongly supporting this scenario.  I think any widespread and multi day 90 degree heat is not likely the next week to 10 days with the trough pushing into the east and a more humid s-sse flow prominent.  We could see a day or two where temps spike under the right conditions but looking ahead the next heat signal is looking possible the week of the 16th as the Rockies/Plains ridge builds east...   We'll see how it evolves but the main theme 6/4 - 6/15 is likely normal-below temps and increased rain chances....

 

 

Good post. These things can change but it looks like it will be some time until our next heatwave. Windows open type weather coming!

 

 

Yep, agree with the above posts, and believe that June will not be a warm month overall with respect to normal. Our next heat wave will likely occur in the typical June 15th-30th time frame. Until then, wet and generally cooler than normal. Summer of sustained heat this will not be, as Yoda would say.

 

It's interesting that this is somewhat like the beginning of June 2007 when we had the warmest temperatures on the 1st and 2nd followed by cooler temps and tropical system moving up the coast.

 

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hoping the 00z gfs starts a trend for a drier weekend as it keeps the  brunt of tropical moisture offshore as previous runs had.  It also has a heat signal after d10 on/around 6/16 . Way out there but small but positive trends for warm weather enthusiasts....

 

 

gfs weekemd qpf

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer&param=precip_p60&cycle=00ℑ=gfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_150_precip_p60.gif

 

ggem/ukmet  are soakers  fri pm - sat pm

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Just gorgeous today in Westchester, 70/47 after a low around 50F. If the 12z ECM is correct, we have a long stretch of below average temperatures coming, with signs of heat starting to migrate east from the Desert Southwest by Day 10. However, the ULL over the Canadian Maritimes looks to suppress heights in the East in the longer range, so we could end up with a strong gradient pattern in which heat dominates the nation's mid-section whereas the Northeast and particularly New England remain pleasantly cool. 

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Our California weather is over and we now enter a more tropical/humid pattern with the remnants of Andrea brining us copius amounts of rain tomorrow.   Hopefully we can save the weekend fmo being a washout at least Sunday.  As we go forward we remain under the influence of a trough the next week to 10 days with temps near or below normal and increased rain chances.  Guidance has slowly been signalling ridging builds east fom the Rockies/Plains by the week of the 16th - 24th.   

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Nice to wakeup to sunshine after the deluge.  3.75" in the bucket by me.  More clouds and some showers pushing  east out of the PA .  I think we escape most of these but clouds will be around most of the day.

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I hope it's not that bad Monday through all of next week into next weekend. We've had way too much rain since the drought ended on May 8th. We do need a long well deserved break from all the rain. It won't be that bad Monday through all of next week into next weekend right?

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Turned out to be a fantastic afternoon.  Mostly sunny the last couple of hours and temps up near 80.  Tomorrow looks real nice too, making it  consectuive decent weekends back to the second half of memorial day weekend.   

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I hope not the whole week into next weekend. Please tell me that it will dry out some time next week and that the whole week into next weekend isn't rainy and unsettled.

Please contribute some analysis or stop posting. You've already said you hope it doesn't rain in three separate posts.

The models show a warm, dry Sunday followed by a system Monday night into Tuesday. Tuesday could be a cool day as the warm front struggles to lift north. Drier Wednesday but rain may return closer to next weekend.

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We have had too much rain. Hopefully the rain chances bust early in the week but the rest of the week into the weekend does look nice. We desperately need some drying out

 

We have to at least get  through Friday with increased rain chances and a continued wet pattern. The next systems  mon into tue and thu into fri look very wet perhaps the heavierst staying north then south (hopefully). 

 

  While the euro took a step back with heat on  the 00z guidance, the singal remains that we warm things by  next (fathers day) weekend and perhaps another heat signal into the following week and end of june. 

 

We have seen other wet junes transition into heat most recently  2006 and 2003.  The rockies/plains ridge should eventually expand northeast between 6/17 - 6/24. 

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..nice beach day on the east end..definitely not hot but quite

nice..gusty WSW late in the day..water temp still at shrinkage

stage..mostly sunny all day.. 

 

Water temps had a big gain today. Mostly because of the light winds and the minimal waves. Buoy 44025 got it's SST up to 67 and has air temps close to 70. I use 44025 a lot for when I got to the beach to see what the water temps are. Water temps will drop back to 64/65 by night. Those 67 degree water temps are only at the surface.

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Overnight guidance contniues with a weakness over the northeast which favors troughs to move through frequently, capping the heat and keeping the area generally wet through the week.  We should see brief periods of warmer weather (similar to Sunday) followed by contiued fropa passages under the weakness through the 17th.  There is still a back and forth on the longer range progs, but the rockies/plains ridge should expand east and offer the next sustained period of warmth and chance for our next round of heat between 6/18 and the end of the month.  Prior to then there is still some chance we sneak a 90 degree day in before then in the warmer places. But the main theme is temps near normal and rain, rain rain.  Lots of drying out to do the end of the month and in July/August...

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