IsentropicLift Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 New Orleans to New York Expressway on the 12z Euro - Better get the sandbags ready Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 They were steeper yesterday with the midlevel disturbance that rolled through. That disturbance was stronger and with colder air aloft. This distubance today is weaker and warmer aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 I think the severe threat today is low. Mid-level lapse rates and effective bulk shear are both weak. Agreed. I'm not sure what's supposed to be better about today than yesterday. Hopefully we're wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Great shot. I was able to capture a microburst 2 years ago while looking west along the beach. You can make out the rain foot fanning out in the distance. JFK Obs 7-13-11 METAR KJFK 132351Z 31020G44KT 4SM R04R/4000VP6000FT +RA FEW022 BKN065CB BKN140 BKN250 22/17 A2978 RMK AO2 PK WND 31044/2344 RAB43 SLP085 CB OHD-NW MOV SE P0005 60005 T02220172 10317 20222 53022 J11STM2.jpg Sorry I'm quoting this so late, but that's a really nice shot. Though I do wonder how you can tell visually whether a downdraft is simply a rain shaft, or if it's a microburst. Obviously, you had your METAR observation to back it up. Visual "features" of thunderstorms are not a particular strength of mine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 That disturbance was stronger and with colder air aloft. This distubance today is weaker and warmer aloft. We could see a few pulsers mostly interior with the steeper lower level lapse rates and weak shear today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Sorry I'm quoting this so late, but that's a really nice shot. Though I do wonder how you can tell visually whether a downdraft is simply a rain shaft, or if it's a microburst. Obviously, you had your METAR observation to back it up. Visual "features" of thunderstorms are not a particular strength of mine. It would have been easier to see if I took a video of the event. The lack of a clear sky behind the microburst also made it more difficult to pick out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 New Orleans to New York Expressway on the 12z Euro - Better get the sandbags ready Through 10 days, the euro only has 2-2.5" of rain. No one is going to start sand bagging That is just leftover trough junk, it doesn't look like anything as the ridge eats it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Sorry I'm quoting this so late, but that's a really nice shot. Though I do wonder how you can tell visually whether a downdraft is simply a rain shaft, or if it's a microburst. Obviously, you had your METAR observation to back it up. Visual "features" of thunderstorms are not a particular strength of mine. I believe with regards to microbursts, you can pick out the bottom of the rain shaft at the ground level rushing outward and curling up...though I've never actually witnessed this myself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 The storms may be trying to form a line in NJ (looks like it will go south of us though) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 25, 2013 Author Share Posted June 25, 2013 12z GFS and ECM both have a stronger WAR building higher heights fruther westt between mon (7/1) and thu (7/4) before the next front. This results in less rain but its still make no bones about it a very wet pattern. Southerly/tropical flow should keep it warm and quite humid and where storms and rain fires it'll be very heavy each day between sun and next fri. When its sunny it'll be quite warm with outside chance of 90 degree readings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 warned cell headed for union county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Dodged to the north yesterday. Dodged to the south today. Something's gotta give. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Looks like that cell in NJ will hit southern Manhattan and SI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Lol rained 10 minutes with that quick mover on somerset county and the sun is now coming out. Thank god for posters like sacrus because yankfans seems over the top with his constant worst case scenerio posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Lol rained 10 minutes with that quick mover on somerset county and the sun is now coming out. Thank god for posters like sacrus because yankfans seems over the top with his constant worst case scenerio posts what the hell does one shower in your backyard have anything to do with the upcoming pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeatMiser Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 What you guys think about the chance of some heat returning for the 2nd week of July? Seems as if the pattern has been one week of warmth followed by an unsettled week and then return of the heat. Any chance we see that? GFS op seems to have a big ridge return to the midwest/east in that 2nd week but seems unsettled and sloppy for sure. Summer is over. Ignore the fact that it technically started 4 days ago. In reality, it seems models have in general had very low confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Under cell in Union, no lightning, just moderate rain. Edit: Saw one CTG strike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Lol rained 10 minutes with that quick mover on somerset county and the sun is now coming out. Thank god for posters like sacrus because yankfans seems over the top with his constant worst case scenerio posts Can you please give these posts a rest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sutherlandfan Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Euro Ens. looking at some warm potential for that week of July 8th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Wow estimating 40 mph wind gusts from the outflow in forest hills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Euro Ens. looking at some warm potential for that week of July 8th. Well it is summer. Do people ignore the fact that the heat is ongoing right now? Why look ahead if its happening in the present. Mid 90s sounds pretty hot to me with higher HI's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 High was 92 here. 80 here right now. How does anyone like hot and humid weather? It's just terrible to be outside and sweat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Well it is summer. Do people ignore the fact that the heat is ongoing right now? Why look ahead if its happening in the present. Mid 90s sounds pretty hot to me with higher HI's. lol....how true, we have our 2nd heatwave right now and I see so many lamenting wet weather and the next 7-10 days which may or may not be realized...last week we had posters saying raw and cool upper 60s for some days...lol...even with the upcoming wet period temps still will be about normal. This summer is doing exactly what summers are supposed to do, sometimes some of them are wetter than others, especially lately but the heat has visited us two times already, enjoy it for the next couple days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 what the hell does one shower in your backyard have anything to do with the upcoming pattern? it has nothing to do with it, I was giving my observation and then making a comment about the continuous one sided doom and gloom every 6 hour model run being posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Getting some gusty winds over 30 mph here in Western Nassau with the steep low level lapse rates and weakening showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Can you please give these posts a rest? not sure what you are talking about...yes its annoying reading the board when you try to get analysis and its all doom and gloom one sided by one poster. I think its a legit valid opinion I have. Just because you love rain and storms doesn't make it okay. His posts are repetitive and over the top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 High was 92 here. 80 here right now. How does anyone like hot and humid weather? It's just terrible to be outside and sweat. The Euro weeklies don't have any heat as strong as the last few days from July 1-15th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 The Euro weeklies don't have any heat as strong as the last few days from July 1-15th. Great news for people who hate the heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Well it is summer. Do people ignore the fact that the heat is ongoing right now? Why look ahead if its happening in the present. Mid 90s sounds pretty hot to me with higher HI's. lol....how true, we have our 2nd heatwave right now and I see so many lamenting wet weather and the next 7-10 days which may or may not be realized...last week we had posters saying raw and cool upper 60s for some days...lol...even with the upcoming wet period temps still will be about normal. This summer is doing exactly what summers are supposed to do, sometimes some of them are wetter than others, especially lately but the heat has visited us two times already, enjoy it for the next couple days You are acting like we haven't had near record rainfall this month...lots of the rain threats people have talked about have come true. It seems to me that we are going to be in a classic Florida pattern for the next several days. Maybe an actual severe threat on Thursday. Rain may become a bit more widespread this weekendish and beyond, but nothing screams an individual washout day unless the GGEM's tropical threat is right. Perhaps just several bouts of convection that may yield an impressive cumulative rain total for a long period of time, but no individual widespread washout day. Beach goers may be a bit annoyed, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Made it up to a high of 93 for the day, also picked up 0.17" of rain from a thunderstorm that rolled through between 4-5pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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