SnoSki14 Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Euro going 4-8 inches of rain the next ten days ugh And given the tropical connection some places could pick up much more while others could luck out and pick up less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 The 00z GGEM brings I strong tropical system into the gulf in about 7 days, then up through the gulf by day 9. That would certainly complicate the end of the long range as this system would likely ride up the western side of the Bermuda ridge. The GFS has also shown this potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 85 and sunny right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Interestingly, the 12z 4km NAM decreased temps today for NYC to 89-90 degrees. The 0z and 6z runs both had highs of 95-97 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Interestingly, the 12z 4km NAM decreased temps today for NYC to 89-90 degrees. The 0z and 6z runs both had highs of 95-97 degrees. Don't have graphics access but i wonder if its convection related? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Don't have graphics access but i wonder if its convection related? The 4km NAM has more clouds this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Don't have graphics access but i wonder if its convection related? No. Not really. Looks like just clouds. Interestingly, it also lowered tomorrow's temps to only 86-89 degree highs. P.S. The 12z Rgem has a pretty potent line of tstorms affecting Philly to NYC from 3pm to 7pm today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 A stalled out front and tropical flow means plentiful rain and T-storm activity this time of year. That's about as reliable as gravity. As long as this blocked-up pattern persists, expect plenty of instability and tons of humidity. Very Florida-like as others have mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 the nam's cloud forecast is wrong... this might be the first time i've seen the 4km nam run too low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 25, 2013 Author Share Posted June 25, 2013 12PM Roundup TEB: 89 NYC: 88 EWR: 90 LGA: 88 JFK: 85 ISP: 88 BLM: 88 New Bnswk: 89 TTN: 87 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 25, 2013 Author Share Posted June 25, 2013 Sat clouds in PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 NASTY pop up storm over me in Sussex right now.. tons of CTG lightning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sutherlandfan Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 What you guys think about the chance of some heat returning for the 2nd week of July? Seems as if the pattern has been one week of warmth followed by an unsettled week and then return of the heat. Any chance we see that? GFS op seems to have a big ridge return to the midwest/east in that 2nd week but seems unsettled and sloppy for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 This is a pretty good heatwave for late june and hardly run of the mill like someone said yesterday. Today for me outside has been the worst of the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 BLM at 90 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 The 12z CMC FWIW was very wet for our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 The 12z CMC FWIW was very wet for our region. How bad was it exactly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 91 in Jamaica, HI of 101. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 How bad was it exactly?More or less continuous rain through the end of its run and a tropical threat showing an Andrea redux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 25, 2013 Author Share Posted June 25, 2013 The 12z CMC FWIW was very wet for our region. 12z gfs was not as wet. Either way the potntial is there but we need to see how far the WAR builds in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 12z gfs was not as wet. Either way the potntial is there but we need to see how far the WAR builds in.The Euro has shown 4-8" of rain area wide now for 3-4 runs in a row and that's a pretty good bet. Some areas will see more, some a bit less. Climo favors SE PA up into western New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irishmick9 Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Just saw SPC has 30% wind just into western Jersey for this afternoon. Surprised but hopefully verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 25, 2013 Author Share Posted June 25, 2013 The Euro has shown 4-8" of rain area wide now for 3-4 runs in a row and that's a pretty good bet. Some areas will see more, some a bit less. Climo favors SE PA up into western New England. totally agree yanks just saying the details need to be worked out to the extent of the ballooning WAR. As far as the flatter/warmer pattern emerging - still a signal into the holiday weekend (7/6)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 totally agree yanks just saying the details need to be worked out to the extent of the ballooning WAR. As far as the flatter/warmer pattern emerging - still a signal into the holiday weekend (7/6)... 12z GGEM total through Sunday morning. Then the "tropical threat" arrives just in time for the holiday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 25, 2013 Author Share Posted June 25, 2013 2PM roundup TEB: 90 NYC: 89 EWR: 92 LGA: 92 JFK: 88 ISP: 88 BLM: 90 New Bnswk: 92 TTN: 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Thunderstorms quickly popping up around the region now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 I think the severe threat today is low. Mid-level lapse rates and effective bulk shear are both weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 I think the severe threat today is low. Mid-level lapse rates and effective bulk shear are both weak. They were steeper yesterday with the midlevel disturbance that rolled through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 They were steeper yesterday with the midlevel disturbance that rolled through. Agreed, the coverage was much more widespread yesterday than today. The cells that have formed in W NJ have already weakened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Agreed, the coverage was much more widespread yesterday than today. The cells that have formed in W NJ have already weakened. They have already been replaced by new ones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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